Deere & Company (DE)
NYSE: DE · Real-Time Price · USD
$575
-5.69 (-1.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: DE rated Sell
DE is rated Sell at $574.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $352.98, implying -38.60% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$353 / share
$257 – $461
Upside to FV
-38.6%
from $575
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
The street is pricing Deere as a durable ag-tech compounder rather than a legacy cyclical industrial.
Biggest risk
Severe Crop Deflation
Deterministic models signal a material divergence from internal valuation cross-checks expectations.
Recommended action
Sell
DE is rated Sell at $574.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $352.98, implying -38.60% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $155.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 46.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $17.7 | |
| Shares out | 270.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 32.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 25.0x | |
| Dividend | $6.48 (1.13%) | |
| Volume | 897,008 | |
| Beta | 0.97 | |
| Price target | $633 | +10.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Deere & CompanyDE
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 46.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $17.7
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.0x
- Market cap
- $155.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-10-31 | 2023-10-31 | 2024-10-31 | 2025-10-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $51.28B | $60.25B | $50.52B | $44.67B | -4.5% |
| Gross profit | $15.73B | $22.31B | $19.50B | $16.30B | +1.2% |
| Operating income | $9.03B | $14.59B | $11.43B | $8.42B | -2.3% |
| Net income | $7.13B | $10.17B | $7.10B | $5.03B | -11.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $23.28 | $34.63 | $25.62 | $18.50 | -7.4% |
| EBITDA | $12.08B | $17.48B | $14.67B | $11.66B | -1.2% |
| R&D | $1.91B | $2.18B | $2.29B | $2.31B | +6.5% |
| SG&A | $3.65B | $4.31B | $4.51B | $4.24B | +5.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $257
- Fair value (mid)
- $353
- Fair value (high)
- $461
- Current price
- $575
- Upside to mid
- -38.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $250 | 45% |
| FCFF DCF | $367 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $647 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $303 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $110 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $392 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $42.81 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$633
+10.0%
In the news
Latest news · DE
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $155.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.0x
- P/S
- 3.3x
- P/B
- 5.9x
- PEG
- 2.02
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.2%
- Operating margin
- 14.0%
- ROE
- 19.6%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- ROIC
- 6.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.40
- Current ratio
- 2.25
- Quick ratio
- 1.99
Trading
- Beta
- 0.97
- Volume
- 897,008
- Dividend yield
- 1.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -38.6% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$460.57
-19.9% from spot
Accelerated adoption of autonomous farming and precision agriculture software expands software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenues, structurally lifting mid-cycle margins and commanding a higher multiple from the market.
- SaaS multiple expansion
- Mild agricultural downcycle
Base50%
Price target
$352.98
-38.6% from spot
Deere navigates a standard agricultural downcycle, with revenues contracting in the near term before recovering. Precision Ag limits margin deterioration, but the valuation reverts to a historical cyclical multiple of 15x.
- Cyclical EPS fade
- 15x Terminal Multiple
- Year 1 Revenue -8.11%
Bear35%
Price target
$256.94
-55.3% from spot
A prolonged depression in crop prices coupled with sustained high interest rates crushes farmer sentiment, leading to an extended trough in equipment replacement cycles and rising defaults in the Financial Services segment.
- Extended cycle trough
- Credit losses in financing segment
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $353.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $250 | -56.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 35% | $367 | -36.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $647 | +12.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 5% | $303 | -47.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $110 | -80.8% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $392 | -31.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $42.8 | -92.6% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $353 | -38.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $452 | $512 | $589 | $641 | $641 |
| 6.3% | $367 | $405 | $452 | $512 | $589 |
| 7.3% | $308 | $335 | $367 | $405 | $452 |
| 8.3% | $266 | $286 | $308 | $335 | $367 |
| 9.3% | $234 | $249 | $266 | $286 | $308 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.7
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
5.7/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Avoid long positions; consider short exposure given the extreme overvaluation and cyclical downside.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$575
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Take profit as valuation nears $350 or if agricultural commodity prices abruptly surge.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E25
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE19.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All DE indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
281
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on DE
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this DE report
What is the current DE stock rating?
Deere & Company is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full DE analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/DE/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for DE?
The latest report frames DE around $257 to $461. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the DE page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellDE · Fair value $353-38.6% · Confidence 87/100