Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV)
NYSE: ELV · Real-Time Price · USD
$378
+5.15 (+1.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ELV rated Strong Buy
ELV is rated Strong Buy at $381.75 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $632.32, implying +65.64% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.
Fair value (mid)
$632 / share
$411 – $854
Upside to FV
+65.6%
from $378
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Massive margin of safety with implied -6.18% perpetual growth at the current price.
Biggest risk
Unchecked Medical Cost Inflation
Unchecked Medical Cost Inflation: Sustained elevated medical utilization drives MLR structurally higher, compressing operating margins permanently below historical averages.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
ELV is rated Strong Buy at $381.75 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $632.32, implying +65.64% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $82.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 200.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $23.5 | |
| Shares out | 217.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 16.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 13.1x | |
| Dividend | $6.88 (1.82%) | |
| Volume | 1,305,885 | |
| Beta | 0.67 | |
| Price target | $384 | +1.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Elevance Health, Inc.ELV
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 200.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $23.5
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.1x
- Market cap
- $82.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $156.60B | $171.34B | $176.81B | $199.13B | +6.2% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | $5.89B | $5.99B | $5.98B | $5.66B | -1.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $24.81 | $25.22 | $25.68 | $25.21 | +0.4% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $15.91B | $17.69B | — | — | — | +2.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $411
- Fair value (mid)
- $632
- Fair value (high)
- $854
- Current price
- $378
- Upside to mid
- +65.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $336 | 45% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $783 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $954 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $1710 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $1305 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $43.25 | 5% |
| Ddm | $233 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$384
+1.5%
In the news
Latest news · ELV
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $82.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.1x
- P/S
- 0.4x
- P/B
- 1.9x
- PEG
- 3.74
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.9%
- ROE
- 12.1%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- ROIC
- 8.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.72
- Current ratio
- 1.48
- Quick ratio
- 1.33
Trading
- Beta
- 0.67
- Volume
- 1,305,885
- Dividend yield
- 1.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +65.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$853.64
+123.6% from spot
Accelerated Carelon service growth and favorable demographic shifts drive higher Medicare Advantage enrollment, pushing EPS growth above historical averages and expanding margins.
- Robust Carelon external growth.
- Favorable Medicare Advantage rates.
- Operating margins expand beyond historical averages.
Base60%
Price target
$632.32
+65.6% from spot
Elevance maintains steady growth despite near-term headwinds, with solid execution in Anthem and steady Carelon integration anchoring long-term compounding and capital returns.
- Normalized operating margin stabilizes at 5.0%.
- Terminal growth rate anchors at 3.0%.
- Forward PE multiple anchoring at a realistic 14.0x.
Bear20%
Price target
$411.38
+7.8% from spot
Sustained high utilization drives MLR up while reimbursement cuts squeeze operating margins. PBM competition limits Carelon's expected growth contribution, weighing on valuation.
- Elevated medical loss ratios persist.
- Regulatory pressures constrain revenue growth.
- Slower than expected Carelon adoption.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $632.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $336 | -11.2% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 10% | $783 | +107.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $954 | +152.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $1710 | +352.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $1305 | +245.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $43.3 | -88.6% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $233 | -38.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $632 | +65.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $1123 | $1370 | $1370 | $1370 | $1370 |
| 4.9% | $783 | $948 | $1202 | $1370 | $1370 |
| 5.9% | $581 | $667 | $783 | $948 | $1202 |
| 6.9% | $461 | $514 | $581 | $667 | $783 |
| 7.9% | $431 | $431 | $461 | $514 | $581 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality3.5
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 77/100
Target weight
Core holding given the mature compounder profile and a deep discount to intrinsic value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$378
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reassess if forward P/E gap vs peers narrows to less than 2 turns or MLR permanently deteriorates.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E13.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE12.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ELV indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
266
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 266 of 266 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ELV
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ELV report
What is the current ELV stock rating?
Elevance Health, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ELV analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ELV/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ELV?
The latest report frames ELV around $411 to $854. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ELV page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyELV · Fair value $632+65.6% · Confidence 77/100