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GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $55.4, high $82.4, with mid-point at $68.5.
Stock analysis

GLW fair value $55–$82

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-09Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Cena
$186.94
▼ -118.39 (-63.33%)
Wartość godziwa
$69
$55–$82
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-63.3%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$58.27
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$160.9B
P/E fwd 44.4
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $69 with high case $82.
  • Implied downside of 63.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$69
Margin of safety
-172.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$186.94Price
Low $55.37
Mid $68.55
High $82.37

GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible assets in proprietary glass
    Intangible assets in proprietary glass formulations and materials science.
  • Switching costs in display and
    Switching costs in display and specialty electronics materials.
  • Bull thesis
    Near-term internal valuation cross-checks growth is strong, but insufficient to offset the monumental valuation premium.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A synchronized global recession severely curtails consumer electronics spending and delays 5G/broadband infrastructure rollouts. High fixed costs result in significant margin compression.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Prolonged Telco Winter

· Medium

Carriers permanently reduce fiber capex due to shifting to wireless last-mile or structural funding issues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

Display Price War

· Medium

Asian competitors flood the market with heavily subsidized glass, collapsing LCD/OLED substrate pricing.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Disruptive Material Substitution

· Low

A new, cheaper composite replaces specialty glass in consumer devices, breaking Corning's monopoly.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
5+ Years
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Three consecutive quarters of declining optical fiber volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Display glass price declines exceeding high single-digits annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 30% for a full fiscal year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to sales ratio climbing above 12% without corresponding revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% on normalized FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów

Pozycja2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$14.19B$12.59B-11.3%$13.12B+4.2%$15.63B+19.1%+2.4%
Zysk brutto$4.51B$3.93B$4.28B$5.62B+5.7%
Zysk operacyjny$1.44B$890.0M$1.14B$2.28B+12.2%
Zysk netto$1.32B$581.0M-56.0%$506.0M-12.9%$1.60B+216.2%+4.9%
EPS (rozwodniony)$1.28$1.54$0.68$0.58$1.83+9.3%
EBITDA$3.54B$2.51B$2.49B$3.74B+1.3%
R&D$1.05B$1.08B$1.09B$1.11B+1.5%
SG&A$1.90B$1.84B$1.93B$2.12B+2.8%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
7 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
6.81
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.37
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.69×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
8.9%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

GLW margins questions

  1. GLW (GLW)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

GLW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GLW looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $187 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $68.5 (range $55.4–$82.4), which implies roughly 63.3% downside to the midpoint.
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