MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)
NASDAQ: MELI · Real-Time Price · USD
$1633
-237.49 (-12.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MELI rated Strong Buy
MELI is rated Strong Buy at $1,594.86 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $2,600.22, implying +63.04% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$2600 / share
$1346 – $4151
Upside to FV
+63.0%
from $1633
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Valuation: Significant gap between current price and forward fundamental value.
Biggest risk
Macroeconomic Hyper-Devaluation
Risk: Persistent currency and political exposures are the primary downside drivers.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
MELI is rated Strong Buy at $1,594.86 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $2,600.22, implying +63.04% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $80.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 31.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $37.9 | |
| Shares out | 50.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 43.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.0x | |
| Volume | 2,333,904 | |
| Beta | 1.41 | |
| Price target | $2587 | +58.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 31.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $37.9
- P/E (trailing)
- 43.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.0x
- Market cap
- $80.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $10.78B | $15.11B | $20.78B | $28.89B | +38.9% |
| Gross profit | $5.20B | $7.59B | $9.58B | $12.86B | +35.2% |
| Operating income | $1.07B | $2.21B | $2.63B | $3.20B | +44.1% |
| Net income | $482.0M | $987.0M | $1.91B | $2.00B | +60.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.53 | $19.46 | $37.69 | $39.40 | +60.5% |
| EBITDA | $1.32B | $2.25B | $3.21B | $3.82B | +42.6% |
| R&D | $1.10B | $1.83B | $1.93B | $2.27B | +27.3% |
| SG&A | $1.96B | $2.50B | $3.15B | $4.30B | +30.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $1346
- Fair value (mid)
- $2600
- Fair value (high)
- $4151
- Current price
- $1633
- Upside to mid
- +63.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $3132 | 60% |
| FCFF DCF | $2274 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $1182 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $1508 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $1449 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $3183 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$2587
+58.5%
In the news
Latest news · MELI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $80.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 43.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.0x
- P/S
- 2.6x
- P/B
- 11.4x
- PEG
- 1.19
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.5%
- Operating margin
- 9.6%
- ROE
- 31.3%
- ROA
- 5.1%
- ROIC
- 16.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.70
- Current ratio
- 1.16
- Quick ratio
- 0.44
Trading
- Beta
- 1.41
- Volume
- 2,333,904
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +67.7% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$4,150.74
+160.3% from spot
Hyper-scaling of high-margin services leads to massive margin expansion and premium multiple retention.
- Advertising margins exceed 20% of segment revenue.
- E-commerce penetration doubles in major markets.
- Currency stability allows full EPS translation.
Base50%
Price target
$2,600.22
+63.0% from spot
MercadoLibre maintains its undisputed leadership while gradually improving operating leverage.
- Revenue CAGR remains above 25%.
- Logistics network maintains 80%+ shipment share.
- Macro conditions remain volatile but manageable.
Bear25%
Price target
$1,346.18
-15.6% from spot
Macroeconomic instability and competitive intensity force a valuation reset to historical earnings floors.
- Severe regional recession or currency shock.
- Market share loss to global competitors.
- Fintech credit losses spike.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $2600.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $3132 | +91.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $2274 | +39.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $1182 | -27.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $1508 | -7.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $1449 | -11.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $3183 | +95.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $2600 | +63.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($2,600.21). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $3030 | $3303 | $3630 | $4029 | $4526 |
| 9.6% | $2600 | $2799 | $3030 | $3303 | $3630 |
| 10.6% | $2277 | $2428 | $2600 | $2799 | $3030 |
| 11.6% | $2026 | $2144 | $2277 | $2428 | $2600 |
| 12.6% | $1824 | $1920 | $2026 | $2144 | $2277 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.0
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Core growth holding; size appropriately for emerging market macro-volatility and currency risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1633
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim if e-commerce market share durably declines or if OCF-to-NI conversion trends below 2.0x.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE31.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC16.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MELI indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
267
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MELI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MELI report
What is the current MELI stock rating?
MercadoLibre, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MELI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MELI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MELI?
The latest report frames MELI around $1346 to $4151. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MELI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyMELI · Fair value $2600+63.0% · Confidence 82/100