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NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM fair value $134–$242

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-10Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Cena
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
Wartość godziwa
$181
$134–$242
Rekomendacja
Zdecydowanie kupuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+55.5%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
Zysk brutto$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
Zysk operacyjny$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
Zysk netto$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
EPS (rozwodniony)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
R&D$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
SG&A$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
9 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
4.54
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.71
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.46×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
23.2%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

NEM reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for NEM (NEM) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: cyclical