Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
NASDAQ: SMCI · Real-Time Price · USD
$35.4
+1.75 (+5.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: SMCI rated Strong Buy
SMCI is rated Strong Buy at $35.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $71.39, implying +101.84% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 75/100.
Fair value (mid)
$71.4 / share
$48.5 – $105
Upside to FV
+101.8%
from $35.4
Confidence
75/100
Moat
3/10
Biggest opportunity
internal valuation cross-checks ($36.75) views SMCI strictly as a peak-cycle value trap with immediate mean-reverting multiples.
Biggest risk
AI Capex Normalization
AI Capex Normalization: Hyperscaler demand plateaus before broad enterprise demand matures, stranding SMCI with excess manufacturing capacity.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
SMCI is rated Strong Buy at $35.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $71.39, implying +101.84% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 75/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $21.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 33.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.91 | |
| Shares out | 600.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 18.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 11.0x | |
| Volume | 50,824,249 | |
| Beta | 1.68 | |
| Price target | $35.2 | -0.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 33.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.91
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 11.0x
- Market cap
- $21.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.20B | $7.12B | $14.99B | $21.97B | +61.7% |
| Gross profit | $800.0M | $1.28B | $2.06B | $2.43B | +44.8% |
| Operating income | $335.2M | $761.1M | $1.21B | $1.25B | +55.2% |
| Net income | $285.2M | $640.0M | $1.15B | $1.05B | +54.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.53 | $1.14 | $2.01 | $1.68 | +46.7% |
| EBITDA | $375.7M | $799.7M | $1.27B | $1.33B | +52.4% |
| R&D | $272.3M | $307.3M | $463.5M | $636.6M | +32.7% |
| SG&A | $192.6M | $214.6M | $387.1M | $540.4M | +41.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $48.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $71.4
- Fair value (high)
- $105
- Current price
- $35.4
- Upside to mid
- +101.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $81.08 | 45% |
| FCFF DCF | $63.54 | 30% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $71.20 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $51.60 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $43.60 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $41.35 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$35.2
-0.5%
In the news
Latest news · SMCI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $21.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 11.0x
- P/S
- 0.6x
- P/B
- 2.8x
- PEG
- 0.43
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 8.4%
- Operating margin
- 4.5%
- ROE
- 17.9%
- ROA
- 5.5%
- ROIC
- 10.4%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.21
- Current ratio
- 2.66
- Quick ratio
- 1.19
Trading
- Beta
- 1.68
- Volume
- 50,824,249
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +129.2% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$105.45
+198.1% from spot
AI server demand remains robust and prolonged. SMCI scales liquid cooling solutions, regains pricing power, and achieves operational leverage, driving sustained double-digit growth and margin expansion well above the $105.45 upside target.
- Prolonged multi-year AI infrastructure build-out
- Operating margins expand past historical averages
- Working capital efficiency improves significantly
Base50%
Price target
$71.39
+101.8% from spot
SMCI capitalizes on near-term AI infrastructure build-outs, driving immediate hyper-growth. Margins compress to long-term cyclical norms (6.5%) and working capital remains a heavy structural drag, anchoring fair value at $71.39.
- Y1 revenue surges 83.1% then decelerates to 27.7%
- Normalized operating margin settles at 6.5%
- WACC of 8.86% with a 15x terminal multiple
Bear35%
Price target
$48.45
+37.0% from spot
AI hardware spending cools off abruptly. Larger competitors squeeze SMCI's market share, exacerbating margin compression and leaving the company stranded with high working capital and excess capacity, driving valuation down to $48.45.
- AI capex normalizes rapidly post-2025
- Severe margin compression from Dell/HPQ competition
- Negative FCF necessitates dilutive financing
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $71.4.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $81.1 | +129.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 30% | $63.5 | +79.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $71.2 | +101.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $51.6 | +45.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $43.6 | +23.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $41.4 | +16.9% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $71.4 | +101.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $74.4 | $81.3 | $89.7 | $100.0 | $111 |
| 7.9% | $63.5 | $68.5 | $74.4 | $81.3 | $89.7 |
| 8.9% | $55.5 | $59.2 | $63.5 | $68.5 | $74.4 |
| 9.9% | $49.2 | $52.1 | $55.5 | $59.2 | $63.5 |
| 10.9% | $44.2 | $46.6 | $49.2 | $52.1 | $55.5 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.2
Balance Sheet6.5
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.2 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 75/100
Target weight
Size conservatively. High cyclicality and volatile working capital dynamics require treating this equity as a high-beta trade rather than a core long-term hold.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$35.4
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Scale out dynamically as the price approaches the $71.39 base case target, completely exiting positions near the $105.45 bull cycle peak.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E11
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE17.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC10.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All SMCI indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
257
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 257 of 257 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on SMCI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this SMCI report
What is the current SMCI stock rating?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full SMCI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/SMCI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for SMCI?
The latest report frames SMCI around $48 to $105. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the SMCI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuySMCI · Fair value $71.4+101.8% · Confidence 75/100