SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)
NASDAQ: SOFI · Real-Time Price · USD
$15.8
-0.25 (-1.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: SOFI rated Sell
SOFI is rated Sell at $15.23 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $10.02, implying -34.21% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 81/100.
Fair value (mid)
$10.0 / share
$3.54 – $18.1
Upside to FV
-34.2%
from $15.8
Confidence
81/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
The market currently prices SoFi entirely on its Forward Earnings potential ($15.22), implicitly ignoring the stark reality of the Residual Income model ($2.21).
Biggest risk
Unsecured Credit Contraction
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Sell
SOFI is rated Sell at $15.23 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $10.02, implying -34.21% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 81/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $19.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 3.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 576.9M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $0.44 | |
| Shares out | 1.3B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.5x | |
| Volume | 55,862,910 | |
| Beta | 2.13 | |
| Price target | $22.9 | +45.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 3.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 576.9M
- EPS (ttm)
- $0.44
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.5x
- Market cap
- $19.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.57B | $2.11B | $2.61B | $3.61B | +31.9% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $-320.4M | $-300.7M | $498.7M | $481.3M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.40 | $-0.36 | $0.39 | $0.39 | — |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $1.12B | $1.23B | $1.40B | $1.80B | +17.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $3.54
- Fair value (mid)
- $10.0
- Fair value (high)
- $18.1
- Current price
- $15.8
- Upside to mid
- -34.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $15.22 | 60% |
| Residual income | $2.21 | 40% |
| Owner earnings | $13.55 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $10.78 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $8.11 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $9.97 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$22.9
+45.7%
In the news
Latest news · SOFI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $19.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.5x
- P/S
- 5.2x
- P/B
- 1.9x
- PEG
- 0.64
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 83.5%
- Operating margin
- 16.5%
- ROE
- 6.6%
- ROA
- 1.3%
- ROIC
- 4.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Current ratio
- 1.12
- Quick ratio
- 0.49
Trading
- Beta
- 2.13
- Volume
- 55,862,910
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -34.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$18.07
+18.6% from spot
The technology platform achieves global scale, and the financial services loop drives CAC to near-zero, resulting in ROE expanding past 20% and commanding a software-like multiple.
- Tech platform achieves global scale
- ROE expands past 20%
- CAC falls to near-zero
Base55%
Price target
$10.02
-34.2% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Terminal growth 2.5%
- WACC 11.72%
- Terminal Multiple 15x
Bear25%
Price target
$3.54
-76.8% from spot
Credit quality in the personal loan portfolio deteriorates significantly, and the tech platform growth stalls amid legacy bank inertia, confining SoFi to a low-multiple consumer finance valuation.
- Credit quality deteriorates
- Tech platform growth stalls
- Low-multiple consumer finance valuation
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $10.0.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $15.2 | -3.4% | |
| Residual income | 40% | $2.21 | -86.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $13.6 | -14.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $10.8 | -31.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $8.11 | -48.5% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $9.97 | -36.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $10.0 | -34.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($10.02). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4% | $11.1 | $11.8 | $12.6 | $13.4 | $14.4 |
| 11.4% | $10.0 | $10.6 | $11.1 | $11.8 | $12.6 |
| 12.4% | $9.10 | $9.54 | $10.0 | $10.6 | $11.1 |
| 13.4% | $8.34 | $8.70 | $9.10 | $9.54 | $10.0 |
| 14.4% | $7.69 | $8.00 | $8.34 | $8.70 | $9.10 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.0
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 81/100
Target weight
Avoid or severely underweight. The current valuation does not offer an adequate margin of safety for a balance-sheet intensive lending platform.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$15.8
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate on strength near current prices ($15.23). The market is fully pricing in flawless tech execution while ignoring inherent balance sheet risks and value destruction.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE6.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC4.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All SOFI indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
215
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 215 of 215 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on SOFI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this SOFI report
What is the current SOFI stock rating?
SoFi Technologies, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full SOFI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/SOFI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for SOFI?
The latest report frames SOFI around $4 to $18. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the SOFI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellSOFI · Fair value $10.0-34.2% · Confidence 81/100