Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
NASDAQ: TSLA · Real-Time Price · USD
$428
+16.55 (+4.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TSLA rated Hold
Tesla is a high-conviction AI play currently trading at fair value parity; maintain a 'Hold' and wait for a 15% margin of safety ($340) to increase weight.
Fair value (mid)
$395 / share
$304 – $547
Upside to FV
+5.0%
from $428
Confidence
75/100
Moat
8/10
Biggest opportunity
Unsupervised Robotaxi launch in the US, which would instantly re-rate the stock to a pure SaaS multiple.
Biggest risk
FSD Regulatory Wall
Sustained margin erosion in China leading to a 'death spiral' of price cuts and brand devaluation.
Recommended action
Hold
Tesla remains the premier vehicle for exposure to the electrification and AI-manufacturing megatrends. While near-term automotive earnings are depressed, the scaling of the high-margin Energy segment and the option value of FSD provide a solid foundation.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | 1.41T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 97.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.09 | |
| Shares out | 3.8B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 416.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 148.4x | |
| Volume | 64,902,280 | |
| Beta | 1.79 | |
| Price target | $405 | -5.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Tesla, Inc.TSLA
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 97.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.09
- P/E (trailing)
- 416.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 148.4x
- Market cap
- 1.41T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 94,827 | 97,690 | 96,773 | 81,462 |
| Gross Profit | 17,094 | 17,450 | 17,660 | 20,853 |
| Operating Income | 4,849 | 7,760 | 8,891 | 13,832 |
| Net Income | 3,794 | 7,130 | 14,999 | 12,583 |
| EPS (Diluted) | 1.08 | 2.04 | 4.31 | 3.62 |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $304
- Fair value (mid)
- $395
- Fair value (high)
- $547
- Current price
- $428
- Upside to mid
- +5.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $393 | 45% |
| Forward earnings | $415 | 35% |
| FCFF DCF | $355 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $376 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $110 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$405
-5.3%
In the news
Latest news · TSLA
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- 1.41T
- P/E (trailing)
- 416.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 148.4x
- P/S
- 16.4x
- P/B
- 19.1x
- PEG
- 4.32
- EV / EBITDA
- 142.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.1%
- Operating margin
- 4.9%
- ROE
- 4.9%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- ROIC
- 6.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.19
- Current ratio
- 2.04
- Quick ratio
- 1.43
Trading
- Beta
- 1.79
- Volume
- 64,902,280
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: 10.0% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
650
+72.8% from spot
Tesla achieves full level 4/5 autonomy, leading to a high-margin software-led re-rating and massive Robotaxi revenue.
- FSD Unsupervised release by end of 2026
- Automotive gross margins return to 22%+
- Optimus Pilot programs in 3 Giga-factories
Base55%
Price target
396
+5.3% from spot
Continued leadership in EVs with energy segment becoming a 25% profit contributor.
- FSD remains supervised level 2+ but take rate increases to 25%
- Energy storage revenue grows at 30% CAGR
- Automotive margins stabilize at 17-18%
Bear20%
Price target
180
-52.1% from spot
Tesla is valued as a cyclical automotive OEM with a modest tech premium.
- Automotive margins permanently capped at 15% by Chinese competition
- FSD development stalls due to regulatory pushback
- Energy segment growth slows to <15%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $395.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 45% | $393 | -8.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 35% | $415 | -3.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $355 | -17.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 10% | $376 | -12.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $110 | -74.3% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $395 | +5.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | $480 | $440 | $405 | $375 | $345 |
| 12.0% | $445 | $410 | $380 | $350 | $325 |
| 13.0% | $415 | $385 | $355 | $330 | $305 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Customer Value Proposition9.0
Unit Economics6.0
Growth Runway9.0
Moat / Competition8.0
Balance Sheet / Risk9.0
Valuation Attraction6.0
Capital Allocation8.0
Accounting Quality8.0
Technical Profile5.0
Management Quality7.0
Weighted composite
7.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Value Proposition | 10% | 9.0 | |
| Unit Economics | 15% | 6.0 | |
| Growth Runway | 10% | 9.0 | |
| Moat / Competition | 10% | 8.0 | |
| Balance Sheet / Risk | 15% | 9.0 | |
| Valuation Attraction | 40% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Allocation | — | 8.0 | |
| Accounting Quality | — | 8.0 | |
| Technical Profile | — | 5.0 | |
| Management Quality | — | 7.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
Medium
Confidence 75/100
Target weight
4.0%
of equity sleeve
$340
$428
$550
Quarterly monitoring
- China Deliveries < 120k / quarter → Downgrade to Sell
Risk to thesis
- High beta (2.0+) and significant geopolitical exposure in China make this a high-volatility position.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E148.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E342
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE4.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC6.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TSLA indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
271
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 271 of 271 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TSLA
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TSLA report
What is the current TSLA stock rating?
Tesla, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TSLA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TSLA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TSLA?
The latest report frames TSLA around $304 to $547. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TSLA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldTSLA · Fair value $395+5.0% · Confidence 75/100