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V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $306, high $499, with mid-point at $402.
Stock analysis

V fair value $306–$499

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-08Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cena
$321.28
▲ +80.67 (+25.11%)
Wartość godziwa
$402
$306–$499
Rekomendacja
Zdecydowanie kupuj
confidence 88/100
Potencjał wzrostu
+25.1%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$341.66
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$611.0B
P/E fwd 21.7
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $402 with high case $499.
  • Implied upside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$402
Margin of safety
+20.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$321.28Price
Low $305.64
Mid $401.95
High $499.48

V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network Effect
    Ubiquity among consumers and merchants creates an impenetrable global duopoly.
  • Intangible Assets
    Decades of brand trust and security infrastructure.
  • Cycle upside
    Secular cash-to-digital transition in emerging markets, expanding B2B flows, and robust global travel driving high-margin cross-border transactions.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A synchronized global recession coupled with stringent regulatory caps on domestic interchange fees would severely compress take rates and volume. Margins would decay as fixed tech investments deleverage against stalling revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions..

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Regulatory Take-Rate Compression

· Low

Global regulators, led by the US passing the Credit Card Competition Act or similar measures, aggressively cap interchange fees, permanently compressing Visa's take rate and yielding sustained margin decay.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Disintermediation by Alternative Rails

· Low

Government-sponsored real-time payment rails (like FedNow) and dominant tech digital wallets establish successful direct-to-bank networks at scale, bypassing VisaNet entirely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
5-10 Years

Severe Macroeconomic Contraction

· Medium

A prolonged global recession severely limits consumer spending, particularly in high-margin cross-border travel and luxury goods, stalling revenue growth below inflation.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 Years
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Deceleration in cross-border payment volume growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins sustained below 65%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory momentum advancing the Credit Card Competition Act.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Material market share loss in co-brand portfolios to Mastercard.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowdown in value-added services and Visa Direct revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Przychody$29.31B$32.65B$35.93B$40.00B+10.9%
Zysk brutto$23.58B$26.09B$28.88B$32.15B+10.9%
Zysk operacyjny$19.68B$21.93B$24.06B$26.56B+10.5%
Zysk netto$14.96B$17.27B$19.74B$20.06B+10.3%
EPS (rozwodniony)$7.00$8.28$9.73$10.20+13.4%
EBITDA$19.54B$22.62B$25.59B$26.00B+10.0%
R&D—————
SG&A$3.04B$3.22B$3.79B$4.37B+12.9%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
6 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
7.41
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.49
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.15×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
31.0%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

V income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of V (V) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

V — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, V looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $321 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $402 (range $306–$499), which implies roughly 25.1% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder