Datadog, Inc. (DDOG)
NASDAQ: DDOG · Real-Time Price · USD
$200
+11.44 (+6.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: DDOG rated Sell
DDOG is rated Sell at $200.16 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $87.96, implying -56.06% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 56/100.
Fair value (mid)
$88.0 / share
$52.8 – $126
Upside to FV
-56.1%
from $200
Confidence
56/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to intrinsic cash generation.
Biggest risk
Hyperscaler Domination
Hyperscaler Domination: AWS and Azure aggressively bundle native observability tools, crushing Datadog's pricing power and stalling enterprise adoption rates.
Recommended action
Sell
DDOG is rated Sell at $200.16 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $87.96, implying -56.06% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 56/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $71.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 3.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 135.7M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $0.38 | |
| Shares out | 356M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 525.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 70.7x | |
| Volume | 12,057,986 | |
| Beta | 1.29 | |
| Price target | $205 | +2.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Datadog, Inc.DDOG
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 3.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 135.7M
- EPS (ttm)
- $0.38
- P/E (trailing)
- 525.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 70.7x
- Market cap
- $71.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.03B | $1.68B | $2.13B | $2.68B | $3.43B | +35.1% |
| Gross profit | $794.5M | $1.33B | $1.72B | $2.17B | $2.74B | +36.3% |
| Operating income | $-19.2M | $-58.7M | $-33.5M | $54.3M | $-44.4M | — |
| Net income | $-20.7M | $-50.2M | $48.6M | $183.7M | $107.7M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $-0.16 | $0.14 | $0.52 | $0.31 | — |
| EBITDA | $25.6M | $13.1M | $111.0M | $265.9M | $193.8M | +65.9% |
| R&D | $419.8M | $752.4M | $962.4M | $1.15B | $1.55B | +38.6% |
| SG&A | $393.9M | $634.7M | $789.5M | $961.8M | $1.24B | +33.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $52.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $88.0
- Fair value (high)
- $126
- Current price
- $200
- Upside to mid
- -56.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $105 | 80% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $39.41 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $13.19 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $6.64 | 5% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $9.56 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$205
+2.3%
In the news
Latest news · DDOG
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $71.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 525.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 70.7x
- P/S
- 19.4x
- P/B
- 17.9x
- PEG
- 3.55
- EV / EBITDA
- 1956.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 79.9%
- Operating margin
- -0.6%
- ROE
- 3.9%
- ROA
- -0.2%
- ROIC
- -3.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.32
- Current ratio
- 3.40
- Quick ratio
- 3.28
Trading
- Beta
- 1.29
- Volume
- 12,057,986
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -56.1% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$126.10
-37.0% from spot
AI workloads and accelerated digital transformation initiatives drive an unexpected re-acceleration in enterprise IT spending, pushing sustained growth above 25%.
- AI workloads drive unexpected re-acceleration
- Sustained >25% revenue growth
- Rapid achievement of 30%+ operating margins
Base50%
Price target
$87.96
-56.1% from spot
Durable ~20% near-term top-line growth driven by vendor consolidation, gradually decelerating as the law of large numbers takes effect, anchored by a 30x terminal multiple.
- Durable ~20% near-term growth
- Gradual deceleration via law of large numbers
- Terminal multiple capped at 30x
Bear25%
Price target
$52.81
-73.6% from spot
Cloud optimization efforts stall the top line. Heavy competition compresses pricing power. Persistently high SBC leads to continued dilution and violent multiple contraction.
- Cloud optimization stalls the top line
- Multiple compression to peer median
- High SBC dilution continues unchecked
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $88.0.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 80% | $105 | -47.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $39.4 | -80.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $13.2 | -93.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $6.64 | -96.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $9.56 | -95.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $88.0 | -56.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $82.0 | $88.2 | $95.5 | $104 | $114 |
| 10.5% | $71.8 | $76.5 | $82.0 | $88.2 | $95.5 |
| 11.5% | $63.8 | $67.6 | $71.8 | $76.5 | $82.0 |
| 12.5% | $57.5 | $60.5 | $63.8 | $67.6 | $71.8 |
| 13.5% | $52.3 | $54.8 | $57.5 | $60.5 | $63.8 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation1.5
Management5.8
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability3.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.8 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 56/100
Target weight
Avoid long exposure entirely. The extreme multiple limits any reasonable margin of safety.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$200
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover short positions rapidly if top-line growth unexpectedly re-accelerates beyond 30% due to AI-driven demand.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E70.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE3.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-3.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All DDOG indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
253
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 253 of 253 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on DDOG
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this DDOG report
What is the current DDOG stock rating?
Datadog, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full DDOG analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/DDOG/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for DDOG?
The latest report frames DDOG around $53 to $126. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the DDOG page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellDDOG · Fair value $88.0-56.1% · Confidence 56/100