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MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-10Próxima atualização: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Preço
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
Valor justo
$275
$193–$377
Classificação
Manter
confidence 77/100
Potencial de alta
-8.0%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
Este relatório ainda não foi traduzido. Atualize em alguns minutos assim que a fila de tradução recuperar o atraso.

§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 Cenário pessimista

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

Como esta tese pode falhar

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Receita$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
Lucro bruto$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
Lucro operacional$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
Lucro líquido$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
LPA (diluído)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
P&D$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
SG&A$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

Pontuações de qualidade

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Composto de qualidade 0–9
Altman Z-score
18.58
Risco de falência (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.86
Risco de manipulação de lucros
OCF / Lucro líquido
-7.1
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Fail
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
-0.0%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Fluxo de caixa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
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REVERSE DCF FAQ

MDB reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for MDB (MDB) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

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