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FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $48.0, high $79.5, with mid-point at $64.0.
Stock analysis

FTNT Fortinet Inc. fair value $64–$80

FTNT
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-09Следующее обновление: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Growth infrastructureNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Цена
$114.07
▼ -50.08 (-43.90%)
Справедливая стоимость
$64
$64–$80
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 68/100
Потенциал роста
-43.9%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$54.39
buy below · 15%
Капитализация
$83.5B
P/E fwd 33.4
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $64 with high case $80.
  • Implied downside of 43.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 68/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$64
Margin of safety
-78.3%
Confidence
68/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$114.07Price
FV $63.99
High $79.53

FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior
    Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior performance-to-cost ratios.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated network-security deployments.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is erroneously pricing a software-only future onto a capital-heavy hardware business model.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

If enterprise firewall refresh cycles extend and SASE adoption favors software-only competitors, Fortinet's product revenue stalls. High fixed R&D and hardware capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). commitments will rapidly reverse operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., driving fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $48 absolute floor.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

SASE Commoditization

· Medium

Software-defined network security architectures fully commoditize Fortinet's legacy ASIC hardware advantage.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
24-36 Months

Margin Contraction

· Medium

Intensifying price war with Palo Alto Networks forces aggressive discounting to defend market share.

FV impact
Midpoint fair value drops below $50
Trigger
12-24 Months

Refresh Cycle Freeze

· High

Macroeconomic headwinds permanently stretch firewall upgrade timelines, halting core product revenue growth.

FV impact
Immediate EPS downside
Trigger
6-12 Months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Consecutive quarters of product revenue deceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins compressing sustainably below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Billings growth trailing revenue growth by more than 500 bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned spikes in channel inventory levels.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Erosion in the OCF to Net Income ratio below 1.1x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Период2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$3.34B$4.42B$5.30B$5.96B$6.80B+19.4%
Валовая прибыль$2.56B$3.33B$4.07B$4.80B$5.47B+20.9%
Операционная прибыль$650.4M$969.6M$1.24B$1.80B$2.08B+33.8%
Чистая прибыль$606.8M$857.3M$1.15B$1.75B$1.85B+32.2%
EPS (разводнённая)—$1.06$1.46$2.26$2.42+22.9%
EBITDA$727.7M$1.08B$1.47B$2.20B$2.45B+35.5%
R&D$424.2M$512.4M$613.8M$716.8M$815.5M+17.8%
SG&A$1.49B$1.86B$2.22B$2.28B$2.58B+14.7%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.4×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
81.4%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

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FAQ

FTNT — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, FTNT looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $114 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $64.0 (range $48.0–$79.5), which implies roughly 43.9% downside to the midpoint.

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