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IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $232, high $439, with mid-point at $335.
Stock analysis

IDXX fair value $232–$439

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-13Следующее обновление: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$533.92
▼ -198.84 (-37.24%)
Справедливая стоимость
$335
$232–$439
Рекомендация
Продавать
confidence 79/100
Потенциал роста
-37.2%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$284.82
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$42.1B
P/E fwd 32.4
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $335 with high case $439.
  • Implied downside of 37.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 79/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$335
Margin of safety
-59.3%
Confidence
79/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$533.92Price
Low $231.99
Mid $335.08
High $439.23

IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
    Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
  • High switching costs locking in
    High switching costs locking in veterinary clinics
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating global pet humanization, increased diagnostic utilization per clinical visit, and ongoing margin expansion from software integration.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn could reduce discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and consumable volume growth, while a high starting valuation multiple compresses.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Severe Valuation Compression

· High

Market recalibrates the extreme 39x trailing P/E multiple down to the model's 25x terminal multiple constraint.

FV impact
-37% to base case midpoint of $335.08

Macroeconomic Traffic Downturn

· Medium

A prolonged recession reduces discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and recurring consumable volumes.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $231.99 bear case low

Margin Degradation

· Low

Competition forces aggressive pricing, causing operating margins to fall below the historically stable 30-31.6% range.

FV impact
Erodes 41.7% ROIC and compresses intrinsic fair value further
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Operating margins falling below 30% indicating pricing power erosion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consumables volume growth dropping below mid-single digits.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in new point-of-care instrument placements.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market-implied growth expectations failing to meet the 15.29% hurdle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Terminal multiple compression accelerating toward the 25x model anchor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов

Статья2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$3.22B$3.37B+4.7%$3.66B+8.6%$3.90B+6.6%$4.30B+10.3%+7.6%
Валовая прибыль$1.89B$2.00B$2.19B$2.38B$2.66B+8.9%
Операционная прибыль$932.0M$898.8M$1.10B$1.13B$1.36B+9.9%
Чистая прибыль$744.8M$679.1M-8.8%$845.0M+24.4%$887.9M+5.1%$1.06B+19.4%+9.2%
EPS (разводнённая)$8.03$10.06$10.67$13.08+13.0%
EBITDA$1.04B$1.01B$1.22B$1.27B$1.51B+9.8%
R&D$161.0M$254.8M$191.0M$219.8M$251.2M+11.8%
SG&A$796.4M$850.8M$901.9M$1.03B$1.05B+7.1%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.12×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
41.7%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
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REVERSE DCF FAQ

IDXX reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for IDXX (IDXX) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.
FAQ

IDXX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, IDXX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $534 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $335 (range $232–$439), which implies roughly 37.2% downside to the midpoint.
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