PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
NASDAQ: PYPL · Real-Time Price · USD
$45.4
-0.85 (-1.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PYPL rated Strong Buy
PYPL is rated Strong Buy at $45.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $100.09, implying +120.61% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$100 / share
$76.1 – $124
Upside to FV
+120.6%
from $45.4
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6/10
Biggest opportunity
The market is severely mispricing PayPal with a 7.8x forward P/E, a multiple typical of a credit-risk heavy lender rather than an asset-light transaction network.
Biggest risk
Apple Pay iOS Dominance
Apple Pay iOS Dominance: Apple heavily restricts iOS payment routing or disadvantages third-party wallets, structurally locking PayPal out of mobile web checkout growth.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
PYPL is rated Strong Buy at $45.37 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $100.09, implying +120.61% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $40.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 33.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.34 | |
| Shares out | 882.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 8.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 7.8x | |
| Dividend | $0.56 (1.23%) | |
| Volume | 14,073,750 | |
| Beta | 1.39 | |
| Price target | $57.0 | +25.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 33.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.34
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 7.8x
- Market cap
- $40.0B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $27.52B | $29.77B | $31.80B | $33.17B | +6.4% |
| Gross profit | $13.77B | $13.70B | $14.66B | $15.47B | +3.9% |
| Operating income | $4.04B | $4.94B | $5.76B | $6.40B | +16.5% |
| Net income | $2.42B | $4.25B | $4.15B | $5.23B | +29.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.09 | $3.84 | $3.99 | $5.41 | +37.3% |
| EBITDA | $4.99B | $6.83B | $6.74B | $7.70B | +15.6% |
| R&D | $3.25B | $2.97B | $2.98B | $3.10B | -1.6% |
| SG&A | $4.36B | $3.87B | $4.15B | $4.26B | -0.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $76.1
- Fair value (mid)
- $100
- Fair value (high)
- $124
- Current price
- $45.4
- Upside to mid
- +120.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $92.55 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $81.15 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $67.01 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $207 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $134 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $13.93 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$57.0
+25.7%
In the news
Latest news · PYPL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $40.0B
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 7.8x
- P/S
- 1.2x
- P/B
- 2.0x
- PEG
- 0.99
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.9%
- Operating margin
- 18.2%
- ROE
- 25.1%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- ROIC
- 22.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.58
- Current ratio
- 1.26
- Quick ratio
- 0.22
Trading
- Beta
- 1.39
- Volume
- 14,073,750
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +120.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$124.14
+173.6% from spot
Unbranded volume margins improve through value-added services, branded checkout market share stabilizes dynamically with Fastlane, and massive share buybacks drive robust EPS growth, leading to a multiple re-rating toward historical network norms.
- Branded checkout volume materially re-accelerates.
- Braintree margins expand via value-added services.
- Terminal multiple re-rates aggressively to 18x.
Base60%
Price target
$100.09
+120.6% from spot
Top-line growth stabilizes in the low-to-mid single digits amid intense wallet competition. The investment thesis relies on sustained operating cost discipline, margin stabilization, and aggressive share repurchases utilizing its $5.5B+ free cash flow profile.
- Revenue CAGR stabilizes safely at 3.5-4.0%.
- Operating margins hold firm at approximately 19%.
- Terminal multiple normalizes to a 15x mature standard.
Bear20%
Price target
$76.10
+67.7% from spot
Relentless competition from Apple Pay and Shop Pay significantly erodes PayPal's core high-margin branded checkout market share, forcing price cuts that compress overall take rates and operating margins faster than cost reductions can offset.
- Revenue growth stalls permanently at 0-1%.
- Operating margins compress heavily to 15%.
- Terminal multiple permanently collapses to 10x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $100.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $92.5 | +104.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $81.2 | +78.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $67.0 | +47.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $207 | +356.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $134 | +194.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $13.9 | -69.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $100 | +120.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $96.6 | $107 | $119 | $135 | $142 |
| 8.3% | $81.2 | $88.2 | $96.6 | $107 | $119 |
| 9.3% | $70.0 | $75.2 | $81.2 | $88.2 | $96.6 |
| 10.3% | $61.5 | $65.5 | $70.0 | $75.2 | $81.2 |
| 11.3% | $54.9 | $58.0 | $61.5 | $65.5 | $70.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Maximum conviction sizing is warranted. The 120% valuation disconnect to our $100 base case offers an extremely asymmetric risk/reward skew.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$45.4
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure aggressively if shares approach the $100 intrinsic mid-point, or cut the position entirely if transaction margins break below 40%.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E7.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE25.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC22.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
274
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 274 of 274 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PYPL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PYPL report
What is the current PYPL stock rating?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PYPL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PYPL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PYPL?
The latest report frames PYPL around $76 to $124. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PYPL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyPYPL · Fair value $100+120.6% · Confidence 88/100