Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $306, high $499, with mid-point at $402.
Stock analysis

V fair value $306–$499

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-08Следующее обновление: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Цена
$321.28
▲ +80.67 (+25.11%)
Справедливая стоимость
$402
$306–$499
Рекомендация
Активно покупать
confidence 88/100
Потенциал роста
+25.1%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$341.66
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$611.0B
P/E fwd 21.7
Английский по умолчаниюRU
Показываем английский источник, пока идёт перевод
Этот отчёт ещё не переведён. Обновите страницу через несколько минут, когда очередь переводов его обработает.

§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $402 with high case $499.
  • Implied upside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$402
Margin of safety
+20.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$321.28Price
Low $305.64
Mid $401.95
High $499.48

V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network Effect
    Ubiquity among consumers and merchants creates an impenetrable global duopoly.
  • Intangible Assets
    Decades of brand trust and security infrastructure.
  • Cycle upside
    Secular cash-to-digital transition in emerging markets, expanding B2B flows, and robust global travel driving high-margin cross-border transactions.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

A synchronized global recession coupled with stringent regulatory caps on domestic interchange fees would severely compress take rates and volume. Margins would decay as fixed tech investments deleverage against stalling revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions..

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Regulatory Take-Rate Compression

· Low

Global regulators, led by the US passing the Credit Card Competition Act or similar measures, aggressively cap interchange fees, permanently compressing Visa's take rate and yielding sustained margin decay.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Disintermediation by Alternative Rails

· Low

Government-sponsored real-time payment rails (like FedNow) and dominant tech digital wallets establish successful direct-to-bank networks at scale, bypassing VisaNet entirely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
5-10 Years

Severe Macroeconomic Contraction

· Medium

A prolonged global recession severely limits consumer spending, particularly in high-margin cross-border travel and luxury goods, stalling revenue growth below inflation.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 Years
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Deceleration in cross-border payment volume growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins sustained below 65%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory momentum advancing the Credit Card Competition Act.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Material market share loss in co-brand portfolios to Mastercard.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowdown in value-added services and Visa Direct revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Выручка$29.31B$32.65B$35.93B$40.00B+10.9%
Валовая прибыль$23.58B$26.09B$28.88B$32.15B+10.9%
Операционная прибыль$19.68B$21.93B$24.06B$26.56B+10.5%
Чистая прибыль$14.96B$17.27B$19.74B$20.06B+10.3%
EPS (разводнённая)$7.00$8.28$9.73$10.20+13.4%
EBITDA$19.54B$22.62B$25.59B$26.00B+10.0%
R&D—————
SG&A$3.04B$3.22B$3.79B$4.37B+12.9%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
6 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
7.41
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.49
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.15×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
31.0%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Полный отчёт по каждому покрываемому тикеру
Архив рекомендаций за 24 месяца
Брифинги списка наблюдения и алерты по изменению рекомендаций
Экспорт в PDF и DOCX на любом языке
Начать пробный период
Отмена в любое время.
INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

V intrinsic value questions

  1. V (V)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

V — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, V looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $321 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $402 (range $306–$499), which implies roughly 25.1% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of V also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder