GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
NYSE: GEV · Real-Time Price · USD
$1040
-5.44 (-0.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GEV rated Sell
Sell. The market prices in flawless execution and aggressive margin expansion to 16%, resulting in a significant premium over our $715.05 fair value.
Fair value (mid)
$715 / share
$533 – $902
Upside to FV
-31.3%
from $1040
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated grid infrastructure spending and an offshore wind turnaround drive faster top-line growth (15%+) while margins rapidly expand to peer levels (15%+ operating), unlocking massive free cash flow.
Biggest risk
Wind Segment Collapse
Wind Segment Collapse: Continued structural losses in the Wind segment overwhelm Power profitability, preventing group-level margin expansion past mid-single digits.
Recommended action
Sell
Initiate Sell. The risk/reward is heavily skewed negative given current valuation multiples.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $279.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 39.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 9.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $34.2 | |
| Shares out | 268.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 42.5x | |
| Dividend | $2.00 (0.19%) | |
| Volume | 1,828,695 | |
| Beta | 1.31 | |
| Price target | $1068 | +2.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
GE Vernova Inc.GEV
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 39.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 9.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $34.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 42.5x
- Market cap
- $279.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $29.65B | $33.24B | $34.94B | $38.07B | +6.4% |
| Gross profit | — | $3.46B | $4.82B | $6.09B | $7.54B | +21.5% |
| Operating income | — | $-2.88B | $-923.0M | $471.0M | $1.39B | — |
| Net income | — | $-2.74B | $-438.0M | $1.55B | $4.88B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.33 | $-10.06 | $-1.60 | $5.58 | $17.69 | — |
| EBITDA | — | $-526.0M | $932.0M | $1.64B | $2.24B | — |
| R&D | — | $979.0M | $896.0M | $982.0M | $1.20B | +5.2% |
| SG&A | — | $5.36B | $4.85B | $4.63B | $4.95B | -2.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $533
- Fair value (mid)
- $715
- Fair value (high)
- $902
- Current price
- $1040
- Upside to mid
- -31.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $961 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $803 | 25% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $576 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $295 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $581 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $73.10 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$1068
+2.7%
In the news
Latest news · GEV
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $279.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 42.5x
- P/S
- 7.1x
- P/B
- 20.1x
- PEG
- 1.70
- EV / EBITDA
- 80.1x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.3%
- Operating margin
- 6.2%
- ROE
- 75.7%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- ROIC
- 35.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.25
- Current ratio
- 0.89
- Quick ratio
- 0.56
Trading
- Beta
- 1.31
- Volume
- 1,828,695
- Dividend yield
- 0.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -22.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$902.24
-13.3% from spot
Accelerated grid infrastructure spending and an offshore wind turnaround drive faster top-line growth (15%+) while margins rapidly expand to peer levels (15%+ operating), unlocking massive free cash flow.
- Flawless turnaround execution.
- Operating margins reach 15%+.
- Wind segment turns highly profitable.
Base60%
Price target
$715.05
-31.3% from spot
Conservative synthesis anchoring on forward moat-fade and forward earnings. Models cap operating margin expansion at 10%, reflecting structural execution risks in the turnaround and acting as a strict analytical anchor.
- Operating margins expand to 10%.
- Revenue growth moderates to 6% in year 5.
- Terminal growth of 3%.
Bear20%
Price target
$533.43
-48.7% from spot
Continued losses in the Wind segment and persistent supply chain issues stall margin expansion, leaving the company stuck with low single-digit operating margins and stagnant growth as legacy contracts drag.
- Wind segment remains structurally unprofitable.
- Operating margins stagnate at mid-single digits.
- Macro infrastructure cycle slows.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $715.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $961 | -7.6% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $803 | -22.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $576 | -44.6% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $295 | -71.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $581 | -44.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $73.1 | -93.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $715 | -31.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $826 | $895 | $977 | $1075 | $1196 |
| 9.5% | $715 | $766 | $826 | $895 | $977 |
| 10.5% | $631 | $670 | $715 | $766 | $826 |
| 11.5% | $564 | $595 | $631 | $670 | $715 |
| 12.5% | $510 | $536 | $564 | $595 | $631 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.1
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
6.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 84/100
Target weight
Zero weight. Avoid entirely given the significant negative fair value gap and high execution risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$1040
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing positions on current strength driven by overly optimistic internal valuation cross-checks expectations.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E42.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE75.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC35.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All GEV indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
242
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 242 of 242 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GEV
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GEV report
What is the current GEV stock rating?
GE Vernova Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GEV analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GEV/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GEV?
The latest report frames GEV around $533 to $902. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GEV page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellGEV · Fair value $715-31.3% · Confidence 84/100