Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
NASDAQ: MU · Real-Time Price · USD
$747
+100.17 (+15.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MU rated Hold
Hold. The AI-driven structural shift is largely priced in at $646.63, balancing extended moat duration against near-term capital burdens.
Fair value (mid)
$707 / share
$557 – $865
Upside to FV
+9.4%
from $747
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Micron captures outsized share in the next-generation HBM architectures, driving sustained premium pricing and forcing traditional DRAM into severe, multi-year supply constraints.
Biggest risk
Competitor Capacity Over-Expansion
Competitor Capacity Over-Expansion: SK Hynix and Samsung rapidly expand capacity, returning the HBM market to a state of brutal commodity oversupply and crushing margins.
Recommended action
Hold
Hold. Maintain current portfolio exposure but delay aggressive accumulation until the market effectively prices in the execution risks of the Blackwell ramp or standard cyclical DRAM weakness.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $729.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 58.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 24.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $21.3 | |
| Shares out | 1.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 6.4x | |
| Dividend | $0.60 (0.08%) | |
| Volume | 65,135,624 | |
| Beta | 1.92 | |
| Price target | $483 | -35.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Micron Technology, Inc.MU
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 58.1B
- Net income (ttm)
- 24.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $21.3
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 6.4x
- Market cap
- $729.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-08-31 | 2023-08-31 | 2024-08-31 | 2025-08-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $30.76B | $15.54B | $25.11B | $37.38B | +6.7% |
| Gross profit | $13.90B | $-1.42B | $5.61B | $14.87B | +2.3% |
| Operating income | $9.71B | $-5.41B | $1.31B | $9.81B | +0.3% |
| Net income | $8.69B | $-5.83B | $778.0M | $8.54B | -0.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.75 | $-5.34 | $0.70 | $7.59 | -0.7% |
| EBITDA | $16.88B | $2.49B | $9.58B | $18.48B | +3.1% |
| R&D | $3.12B | $3.11B | $3.43B | $3.80B | +6.8% |
| SG&A | $1.07B | $920.0M | $1.13B | $1.21B | +4.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $557
- Fair value (mid)
- $707
- Fair value (high)
- $865
- Current price
- $747
- Upside to mid
- +9.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $865 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $659 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $657 | 20% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $1445 | 5% |
| Owner earnings | $396 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $295 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$483
-35.3%
In the news
Latest news · MU
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $729.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 6.4x
- P/S
- 14.5x
- P/B
- 11.6x
- PEG
- 0.06
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 58.4%
- Operating margin
- 48.4%
- ROE
- 39.8%
- ROA
- 20.1%
- ROIC
- 37.4%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.15
- Current ratio
- 2.90
- Quick ratio
- 2.23
Trading
- Beta
- 1.92
- Volume
- 65,135,624
- Dividend yield
- 0.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +1.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$864.53
+33.7% from spot
Micron captures outsized share in the next-generation HBM architectures, driving sustained premium pricing and forcing traditional DRAM into severe, multi-year supply constraints.
- HBM4 technological leadership
- Peak normalized operating margins >50%
- Terminal PE expansion to 25x
Base60%
Price target
$707.13
+9.4% from spot
Execution fully matches elevated expectations. The HBM transition successfully dampens historical cyclicality, but heavy capital requirements restrict near-term free cash flow realization.
- Stable industry oligopoly
- Normalized OPM stabilizes at 42.5%
- Terminal PE of 22x
Bear20%
Price target
$557.34
-13.8% from spot
Competitors aggressively over-expand HBM capacity just as hyperscalers enter a prolonged inventory digestion phase, returning the industry to brutal commodity price competition.
- Commodity oversupply returns
- AI hyperscaler capex pause
- Terminal growth rate drops to 2%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $707.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $865 | +15.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $659 | -11.8% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $657 | -12.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $1445 | +93.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $396 | -46.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $295 | -60.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $707 | +9.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4% | $735 | $782 | $834 | $895 | $964 |
| 11.4% | $657 | $694 | $735 | $782 | $834 |
| 12.4% | $594 | $624 | $657 | $694 | $735 |
| 13.4% | $542 | $567 | $594 | $624 | $657 |
| 14.4% | $498 | $519 | $542 | $567 | $594 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation4.5
Management6.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.8/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Given the 75 confidence score and lingering cyclical residuals, limit position size to standard technology infrastructure weightings.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$747
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim aggressively above $864.53, as valuations stretching beyond the multi-stage moat fade model limits indicate over-exuberance.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E6.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE39.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC37.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
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Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MU
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MU report
What is the current MU stock rating?
Micron Technology, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MU analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MU/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MU?
The latest report frames MU around $557 to $865. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MU page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldMU · Fair value $707+9.4% · Confidence 88/100