Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)
NYSE: NET · Real-Time Price · USD
$196
-60.65 (-23.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NET rated Sell
NET is rated Sell at $196.13 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $76.84, implying -60.82% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Fair value (mid)
$76.8 / share
$52.8 – $106
Upside to FV
-60.8%
from $196
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Quantitative: Extreme overvaluation clearly indicated by strict EV/Rev constraints and PEG models.
Biggest risk
Hyperscaler Edge Consolidation
Macro: Long-duration, pre-profit assets face immense vulnerability to any cost-of-capital reversion.
Recommended action
Sell
NET is rated Sell at $196.13 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $76.84, implying -60.82% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 48/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $69.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 2.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -86.7M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $-0.25 | |
| Shares out | 353.5M | |
| P/E (forward) | 136.0x | |
| Volume | 18,941,877 | |
| Beta | 1.67 | |
| Price target | $238 | +21.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Cloudflare, Inc.NET
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 2.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- -86.7M
- EPS (ttm)
- $-0.25
- P/E (forward)
- 136.0x
- Market cap
- $69.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $975.2M | $1.30B | $1.67B | $2.17B | +30.5% |
| Gross profit | $742.6M | $989.7M | $1.29B | $1.62B | +29.6% |
| Operating income | $-201.2M | $-185.5M | $-154.8M | $-207.2M | — |
| Net income | $-193.4M | $-183.9M | $-78.8M | $-102.3M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.59 | $-0.55 | $-0.23 | $-0.29 | — |
| EBITDA | $-83.4M | $-36.2M | $62.0M | $105.8M | — |
| R&D | $298.3M | $358.1M | $421.4M | $512.5M | +19.8% |
| SG&A | $645.5M | $817.1M | $1.02B | $1.31B | +26.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $52.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $76.8
- Fair value (high)
- $106
- Current price
- $196
- Upside to mid
- -60.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | $87.57 | 80% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $33.91 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Forward earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$238
+21.3%
In the news
Latest news · NET
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $69.3B
- P/E (forward)
- 136.0x
- P/S
- 29.8x
- P/B
- 45.4x
- PEG
- 3.88
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 73.3%
- Operating margin
- -9.0%
- ROE
- -5.9%
- ROA
- -2.7%
- ROIC
- -3.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.31
- Current ratio
- 1.96
- Quick ratio
- 1.89
Trading
- Beta
- 1.67
- Volume
- 18,941,877
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -60.8% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$105.88
-46.0% from spot
Cloudflare utterly dominates SASE and AI edge markets, sustaining >30% top-line compounding for five years and eventually achieving 30%+ operating margins, justifying a prolonged premium multiple phase.
- Cloudflare utterly dominates SASE and AI edge markets, sustaining >30% top-line compounding for five years and eventually achieving 30%+ operating margins, justifying a prolonged premium multiple phase.
Base45%
Price target
$76.84
-60.8% from spot
Strong but naturally decelerating growth (from 29% to high teens) as the business scales. Structural operating margins eventually reach 22%, anchoring to a disciplined 8x terminal EV/Rev multiple.
- Strong but naturally decelerating growth (from 29% to high teens) as the business scales. Structural operating margins eventually reach 22%, anchoring to a disciplined 8x terminal EV/Rev multiple.
Bear30%
Price target
$52.77
-73.1% from spot
Growth decelerates abruptly amid fierce hyperscaler competition and macro headwinds. AI investments underperform, and the market sharply penalizes the persistent lack of GAAP profitability.
- Growth decelerates abruptly amid fierce hyperscaler competition and macro headwinds. AI investments underperform, and the market sharply penalizes the persistent lack of GAAP profitability.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $76.8.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | 80% | $87.6 | -55.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 20% | $33.9 | -82.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $76.8 | -60.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.8% | $97.6 | $103 | $110 | $118 | $126 |
| 11.8% | $87.6 | $92.3 | $97.6 | $103 | $110 |
| 12.8% | $79.4 | $83.3 | $87.6 | $92.3 | $97.6 |
| 13.8% | $72.7 | $75.9 | $79.4 | $83.3 | $87.6 |
| 14.8% | $67.0 | $69.7 | $72.7 | $75.9 | $79.4 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet4.5
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment3.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
4.7/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 48/100
Target weight
Avoid or maintain maximum underweight positioning. The current valuation embeds mathematically implausible expectations.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$196
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Execute staged selling or initiate strategic short structures if holding existing long exposure, as the $196 price target implies massive duration and expectation risk.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E136
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-5.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-3.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NET indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
236
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 236 of 236 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NET
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NET report
What is the current NET stock rating?
Cloudflare, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NET analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NET/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NET?
The latest report frames NET around $53 to $106. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NET page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellNET · Fair value $76.8-60.8% · Confidence 48/100