Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
NYSE: TMO · Real-Time Price · USD
$465
-9.44 (-2.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TMO rated Hold
TMO is rated Hold at $474.46 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $500.89, implying +5.57% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$501 / share
$384 – $619
Upside to FV
+5.6%
from $465
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: A rapid thaw in biopharma funding reignites explosive demand for bioproduction and clinical research. Unmatched scale allows TMO to capture outsized market share while driving unprecedented margin expansion.
Biggest risk
Prolonged Biopharma Funding Winter
Prolonged Biopharma Funding Winter: Extended depression in early-stage biotech funding permanently impairs the growth trajectory of the life sciences solutions segment.
Recommended action
Hold
TMO is rated Hold at $474.46 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $500.89, implying +5.57% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $176.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 45.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 6.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $18.2 | |
| Shares out | 371.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.3x | |
| Dividend | $1.88 (0.40%) | |
| Volume | 3,905,768 | |
| Beta | 0.88 | |
| Price target | $632 | +36.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 45.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 6.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $18.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.3x
- Market cap
- $176.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $39.21B | $44.92B | $42.86B | $42.88B | — | +2.3% |
| Gross profit | $19.64B | $18.97B | $17.10B | $17.70B | — | -2.6% |
| Operating income | $10.23B | $8.51B | $7.32B | $7.72B | — | -6.8% |
| Net income | $7.73B | $6.95B | $6.00B | $6.34B | — | -4.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $17.63 | $15.45 | $16.53 | $17.74 | +0.2% |
| EBITDA | $11.97B | $11.94B | $11.08B | $11.54B | — | -0.9% |
| R&D | $1.41B | $1.47B | $1.34B | $1.39B | — | -0.3% |
| SG&A | $8.01B | $8.99B | $8.45B | $8.60B | — | +1.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $384
- Fair value (mid)
- $501
- Fair value (high)
- $619
- Current price
- $465
- Upside to mid
- +5.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $411 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $506 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $492 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $734 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $539 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $279 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$632
+36.0%
In the news
Latest news · TMO
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $176.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.3x
- P/S
- 3.8x
- P/B
- 3.3x
- PEG
- 2.12
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.9%
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- ROE
- 13.5%
- ROA
- 5.0%
- ROIC
- 8.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.83
- Current ratio
- 1.53
- Quick ratio
- 0.97
Trading
- Beta
- 0.88
- Volume
- 3,905,768
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +5.6% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$618.78
+30.4% from spot
A rapid thaw in biopharma funding reignites explosive demand for bioproduction and clinical research. Unmatched scale allows TMO to capture outsized market share while driving unprecedented margin expansion.
- Rapid biopharma funding recovery drives 7%+ organic growth.
- Operating margins expand significantly beyond historical averages.
- Accretive M&A continues to drive double-digit EPS compounding.
Base60%
Price target
$500.89
+5.6% from spot
TMO returns to steady, mid-single-digit organic growth. While free cash flow generation remains stellar, the sheer scale of the business and elevated debt load naturally decelerate the historical pace of M&A-driven compounding.
- Gradual recovery in end markets supports 4-5.5% organic growth.
- Operating margins stabilize around 20%.
- M&A compounding fades gradually over a 10-year horizon.
Bear20%
Price target
$384.14
-19.0% from spot
A sustained freeze in biotech funding creates a multi-year drag on top-line growth. Heavily leveraged from past acquisitions, TMO struggles to find accretive targets, breaking the compounding thesis and compressing multiples.
- Prolonged biopharma funding weakness restricts revenue growth.
- High debt service limits capital returns and M&A.
- Terminal multiple compresses to 15x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $501.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $411 | -11.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $506 | +8.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $492 | +5.8% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $734 | +57.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $539 | +15.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $279 | -40.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $501 | +5.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $602 | $679 | $777 | $861 | $861 |
| 7.5% | $492 | $542 | $602 | $679 | $777 |
| 8.5% | $416 | $451 | $492 | $542 | $602 |
| 9.5% | $360 | $386 | $416 | $451 | $492 |
| 10.5% | $317 | $337 | $360 | $386 | $416 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Market weight or slight underweight. The current valuation adequately prices in the base case recovery.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$465
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions approaching $600 as the valuation would require heroic assumptions regarding permanent M&A premium extrapolation.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE13.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TMO indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TMO
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TMO report
What is the current TMO stock rating?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TMO analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TMO/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TMO?
The latest report frames TMO around $384 to $619. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TMO page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldTMO · Fair value $501+5.6% · Confidence 88/100