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AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend. Fair value range: low $153, high $255, with mid-point at $204.
Stock analysis

ABBV fair value $153–$255

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-08Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Fiyat
$202.71
▲ +0.96 (+0.47%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$204
$153–$255
Tavsiye
Tut
confidence 88/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
+0.5%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$173.12
MoS level · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$358.5B
P/E fwd 12.5
İngilizce yedekTR
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§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Strong immunology execution offsetting Humira cliff.
  • GAAP EPS vastly understates $13B+ FCF capacity.
  • Fairly valued at current levels; maintain position.
Fair value
$204
Margin of safety
+0.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$202.71Price
Low $152.59
Mid $203.67
High $254.75

AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend.

  • Intellectual property and robust pipeline
    Intellectual property and robust pipeline in immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
  • Scale and distribution networks globally
    Scale and distribution networks globally.
  • Cycle upside
    Aging population and increasing prevalence of autoimmune diseases drive secular volume growth. Innovation in targeted therapies commands premium pricing.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

A severe margin contraction driven by pricing reform and aggressive biosimilar uptake stresses FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics.. Debt load from Allergan acquisition amplifies equity risk, constraining dividend growth and leading to a structural multiple de-rating.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

Accelerated Humira Erosion

· Medium

Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.

FV impact
-15%

Skyrizi/Rinvoq Disappointment

· Low

Key immunology assets fail to reach peak sales targets or face unexpected safety concerns.

FV impact
-20%

Pricing Regulation

· High

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces pricing power across the pharmaceutical portfolio.

FV impact
-10%
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Humira revenue decline exceeding 35% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq sales missing internal valuation cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting below 68%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 2.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% of FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem

Kalem2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Gelir$58.05B$54.32B-6.4%$56.33B+3.7%$61.16B+8.6%+1.8%
Brüt kâr$40.64B$33.90B$39.43B$42.96B+1.9%
Faaliyet kârı$18.81B$13.54B$11.89B$20.09B+2.2%
Net kâr$11.84B$4.86B-59.0%$4.28B-11.9%$4.23B-1.2%-29.1%
EPS (sulandırılmış)$6.63$2.72$2.39$2.36-29.1%
EBITDA$24.17B$17.17B$14.91B$17.63B-10.0%
R&D$6.51B$7.68B$12.79B$9.10B+11.8%
SG&A$15.26B$12.87B$14.75B$14.01B-2.8%

Kalite puanları

Piotroski F-skor
5 / 9
0–9 kalite bileşkesi
OCF / Net kâr
4.5×
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Pass
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
11.7%
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
24 ay tavsiye arşivi
İzleme listesi brifingleri + tavsiye değişiklik uyarıları
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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

ABBV intrinsic value questions

  1. ABBV (ABBV)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
FAQ

ABBV — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABBV trades close to fair value. The current price is $203 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $204 (range $153–$255), which implies roughly 0.5% upside to the midpoint.
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