Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
NYSE: DELL · Real-Time Price · USD
$260
+30.19 (+13.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: DELL rated Reduce
Reduce. The market is pricing a peak cyclical earnings surge as a permanent structural baseline.
Fair value (mid)
$214 / share
$164 – $288
Upside to FV
-17.8%
from $260
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Enterprise AI infrastructure demand proves structurally durable rather than purely cyclical, while the emergence of AI PCs drives higher ASPs, margin expansion, and accelerated refresh cycles in the Client Solutions Group.
Biggest risk
AI Infrastructure Digestion
AI Infrastructure Digestion: Enterprise customers pause AI server procurement following initial capacity overbuilds, causing a rapid contraction in ISG revenues.
Recommended action
Reduce
DELL is rated Reduce at $260.46 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $214.07, implying -17.81% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $169.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 113.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.68 | |
| Shares out | 650.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.7x | |
| Dividend | $2.52 (0.97%) | |
| Volume | 12,167,525 | |
| Beta | 1.06 | |
| Price target | $184 | -29.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 113.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.68
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.7x
- Market cap
- $169.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $101.20B | $102.30B | $88.43B | $95.57B | $113.54B | +2.9% |
| Gross profit | $21.89B | $22.69B | $21.07B | $21.25B | $22.71B | +0.9% |
| Operating income | $4.66B | $5.77B | $5.93B | $6.66B | $8.45B | +16.0% |
| Net income | $5.56B | $2.44B | $3.39B | $4.59B | $5.94B | +1.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.02 | $3.24 | $4.55 | $6.38 | $8.68 | +5.4% |
| EBITDA | $12.02B | $7.66B | $8.89B | $9.59B | $11.85B | -0.3% |
| R&D | $2.58B | $2.78B | $2.80B | $3.06B | $3.14B | +5.1% |
| SG&A | $14.66B | $14.14B | $12.34B | $11.53B | $11.12B | -6.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $164
- Fair value (mid)
- $214
- Fair value (high)
- $288
- Current price
- $260
- Upside to mid
- -17.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $177 | 80% |
| FCFF DCF | $361 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $696 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$184
-29.2%
In the news
Latest news · DELL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $169.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.7x
- P/S
- 1.5x
- PEG
- 1.23
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.7%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- ROIC
- 37.4%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 0.91
- Quick ratio
- 0.59
Trading
- Beta
- 1.06
- Volume
- 12,167,525
- Dividend yield
- 1.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -27.0% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$287.52
+10.4% from spot
Enterprise AI infrastructure demand proves structurally durable rather than purely cyclical, while the emergence of AI PCs drives higher ASPs, margin expansion, and accelerated refresh cycles in the Client Solutions Group.
- Enterprise AI infrastructure demand proves structurally durable rather than purely cyclical, while the emergence of AI PCs drives higher ASPs, margin expansion, and accelerated refresh cycles in the Client Solutions Group.
Base50%
Price target
$214.07
-17.8% from spot
AI server growth normalizes toward steady-state replacement cycles while enterprise PC upgrades provide a standard cyclical offset. High initial margins compress toward historical hardware means, validating our $214 fair value.
- AI server growth normalizes toward steady-state replacement cycles while enterprise PC upgrades provide a standard cyclical offset. High initial margins compress toward historical hardware means, validating our $214 fair value.
Bear35%
Price target
$163.51
-37.2% from spot
The AI server build-out results in a sharp cyclical digestion period by FY27-FY28, and enterprise PC refresh cycles are delayed or heavily commoditized, compressing margins and causing peak-earnings multiples to contract.
- The AI server build-out results in a sharp cyclical digestion period by FY27-FY28, and enterprise PC refresh cycles are delayed or heavily commoditized, compressing margins and causing peak-earnings multiples to contract.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $214.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 80% | $177 | -31.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $361 | +38.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $696 | +167.4% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $214 | -17.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $218 | $235 | $255 | $279 | $308 |
| 8.8% | $190 | $203 | $218 | $235 | $255 |
| 9.8% | $169 | $179 | $190 | $203 | $218 |
| 10.8% | $152 | $160 | $169 | $179 | $190 |
| 11.8% | $138 | $144 | $152 | $160 | $169 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation7.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Zero weight. The risk/reward asymmetry is highly unfavorable.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$260
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate exposure above $250. Market pricing implies unachievable perpetual growth.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC37.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All DELL indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
267
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 267 of 267 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on DELL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this DELL report
What is the current DELL stock rating?
Dell Technologies Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full DELL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/DELL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for DELL?
The latest report frames DELL around $164 to $288. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the DELL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceDELL · Fair value $214-17.8% · Confidence 80/100