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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FANG — frequently asked questions
Is Diamondback Energy Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 204 USD versus our fair value of 152 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 213 USD. That implies roughly 25.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives FANG a fair value of 152 USD and a potential value of 213 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Diamondback Energy Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FANG now?
Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Diamondback Energy Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 204 USD versus fair value of 152 USD; potential value is 213 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FANG?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Diamondback Energy Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FANG's rating?
Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 3/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of 152 USD, the potential value of 213 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (204 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$204.33
Giá trị hợp lý
$152.45
Giá trị tiềm năng
$212.81
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Sustained high oil prices and strong execution in the Permian basin lead to massive capital returns to shareholders and outperformance against peers.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Severe Commodity Downcycle: Global demand destruction pushes crude below $60/bbl structurally, eliminating free cash flow generation.
Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality.
Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality.
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
At $60/bbl oil, operating margins drop below 25%, causing a total evaporation of the $1.8B base FCFF and risking dividend safety.
A severe commodity downcycle and cost inflation compress margins, eliminating free cash flow and forcing leverage concerns as spot rates break $60/bbl.
Prolonged margin contraction signals that field service costs or realized hydrocarbon pricing have degraded cash generation, eliminating free cash flow buffers and threatening the sustainability of dividend distributions and shareholder returns.
Hiện tại:32.9% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuDrops below 25.0% for 12 consecutive months
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
None
Low-cost Permian pure-play footprint
Scale-driven operational efficiencies
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($152.45). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Hold
Kích hoạt: In-line results
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Hụt
Reassess
Kích hoạt: Downside surprise
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Warning level: Drops below 25.0% for 12 consecutive months. Prolonged margin contraction signals that field service costs or realized hydrocarbon pricing have degraded cash generation, eliminating free cash flow buffers and threatening the sustainability of dividend distributions and shareholder returns.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất14,9 TCAGR doanh thu +22,0%
Biên hoạt động32,9%5 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất-703 TrFY2025
Nợ ròng14,8 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu14,9 TGiá vốn doanh thu−9,7 TLợi nhuận gộp5,2 TChi phí hoạt động−303 TrLợi nhuận hoạt động4,9 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−3,3 TLợi nhuận ròng1,7 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
14.929.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
9.708.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
5.221.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
303.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.918.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-3.254.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.664.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31
6,7 T
4,4 T
2,2 T
3,9 T
1,7 T
2,3 T
1,3 T
51 Tr
525 Tr
312 Tr
-680 Tr
—
—
—
—
654 Tr
6,8 T
60,5%
—
6,3%
—
2022-12-31
9,6 T
7,2 T
4,4 T
6,3 T
2,7 T
3,6 T
1,3 T
55 Tr
1,3 T
1,6 T
-257 Tr
—
—
—
—
157 Tr
6,4 T
68,2%
—
8,1%
—
2023-12-31
8,3 T
6,2 T
3,1 T
5,9 T
1,2 T
4,7 T
1,7 T
54 Tr
840 Tr
1,4 T
377 Tr
—
—
—
—
582 Tr
6,8 T
54,8%
—
8,1%
—
2024-12-31
11 T
7,6 T
3,3 T
6,4 T
-5,4 T
11,8 T
2,9 T
65 Tr
959 Tr
1,6 T
6,4 T
—
—
—
—
161 Tr
13,3 T
39,9%
—
8,6%
—
2025-12-31
14,9 T
7,2 T
1,7 T
8,8 T
-703 Tr
9,5 T
5 T
—
2 T
1,2 T
1,6 T
—
—
—
—
104 Tr
14,9 T
32,9%
—
6,1%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Diamondback Energy Inc.FANG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý152,45 US$Report-date price204,33 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư43 / 100
ConocoPhillipsCOP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý125,61 US$Report-date price127,3 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư70 / 100
EOG Resources Inc.EOG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý166,77 US$Report-date price140,35 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư81 / 100
Diamondback Energy Inc.FANG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý152,45 US$Report-date price204,33 US$
Demand destruction or OPEC+ market share wars flood the market, crashing spot prices and forcing severe capex retrenchment.
Định vị
FANG is in a heavy investment phase with CapEx at $9.4B vs D&A at $5B; maintaining flat production requires significant continuous reinvestment.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Zero weight. Current spot optimism provides no margin of safety for long-term cycle-agnostic investors.
Rủi ro
Divest current holdings at the $204 premium, as the market is pricing in unsupportable implied growth.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Divest current holdings at the $204 premium, as the market is pricing in unsupportable implied growth.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While near-term spot pricing and momentum provide support, the structural cycle-normalized fair value of $152.45 highlights immense downside risk. The 29.9% implied growth in current pricing is entirely unsupportable.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
Sell. The stock is severely disconnected from mid-cycle fundamental realities, requiring peak conditions to justify the current valuation.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Substantial earnings revisions reflect prolonged operational margin compression and lower commodity price realizations, eroding equity valuation multiples and diminishing the capital available for balance sheet deleveraging.
Hiện tại:5.73 for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuInternal valuation cross-checks forward revisions fall below 10.00 per share over four consecutive quarters
A persistent drop in return on capital demonstrates that incremental upstream investments and acquired acreage fail to generate acceptable economic value, undermining the rationale for continued capital expenditure programs.
Hiện tại:3.3% as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuFalls below 2.0% for two consecutive quarters
Shrinking gross margins suggest that production costs and extraction inefficiencies are outpacing realized revenues across core acreage, diminishing well-level profitability and undermining long-term production growth assumptions.
Hiện tại:35.0% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuCompresses below 30.0% over two consecutive quarters
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Commodity prices revert to mid-cycle averages. FANG generates robust free cash flow, but valuations normalize to historical cyclical multiples with 35% margins.
Hiện tại5.73 for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Internal valuation cross-checks forward revisions fall below 10.00 per share over four consecutive quarters. Substantial earnings revisions reflect prolonged operational margin compression and lower commodity price realizations, eroding equity valuation multiples and diminishing the capital available for balance sheet deleveraging.
Warning level: Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive quarters. A persistent drop in return on capital demonstrates that incremental upstream investments and acquired acreage fail to generate acceptable economic value, undermining the rationale for continued capital expenditure programs.
Warning level: Falls below 2.000 over a trailing twelve-month period. A material reduction in operating cash conversion indicates working capital drag and lower earnings quality, constraining internal cash flow and increasing the risk of issuing unplanned debt to fund shareholder returns.
Warning level: Compresses below 30.0% over two consecutive quarters. Shrinking gross margins suggest that production costs and extraction inefficiencies are outpacing realized revenues across core acreage, diminishing well-level profitability and undermining long-term production growth assumptions.
