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Accelerated Virginia-class submarine procurement and carrier overhaul awards expand throughput and drive digital shipbuilding efficiency gains.
Consolidated operating profit margin falls below 4.0% over an 18-month window.
We assign a Strong Buy rating to Huntington Ingalls Industries, as the stock trades at $272.86 on September 18, 2026, offering 38.4% upside to our Fair value of $377.71.4
The Strong Buy committee rating reflects an exceptional valuation opportunity for long-term compounders. The shares closed at $272.86 on September 18, 2026, creating substantial upside to our Fair value midpoint of $377.71 and Potential value of $570.12.4
The primary risk to our constructive view involves skilled nuclear shipyard labor bottlenecks. Persistent shortages of certified welders drive overtime wage premiums and schedule delays, which would compress below 4.5% and impede earnings growth.
The core engine of value creation is the company's status as the exclusive builder of nuclear aircraft carriers and major contractor for nuclear submarines. Navy milestone billings generated $1,196M in operating cash flow during FY2025, easily funding dry dock modernizations and driving steady per-share equity compounding.67
Exclusive builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers and prime builder of nuclear submarines, shielded by prohibitive capital and regulatory barriers.7
Shares trade at 12.66x forward earnings on the report date, offering 38.4% upside to our Fair value estimate of $377.71.4
Milestone progress payments yielded $1,196M in operating cash flow in FY2025, fully funding shipyard capex and providing capital return flexibility.6
Strong Buy, because the company's sole-source nuclear naval shipbuilding franchise provides durable multi-decade demand and strong cash generation at a steep discount to intrinsic value.
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. designs, develop, and manufacture products and perform services that often involve innovative designs, new technologies, and complex manufacturing processes. Delays and issues with product development, technology implementation, manufacturing, or subcontractor components or services can impact its contract performance.
The Company provides eligible employees defined benefit pension plans, defined contribution benefit plans, and other postretirement benefit plans. Except for the major collectively bargained plan at Ingalls, the Company's qualified defined benefit pension plans are frozen to new entrants.
Under simultaneous skilled labor wage spikes and submarine contract procurement deferrals, operating margins compress below 4.5% while annual revenue growth decelerates toward 2.0%. Sustaining capital outlays of $402M in FY2025 would absorb available cash flow, reducing free cash generation and testing debt coverage.
A downside path develops if skilled labor attrition and wage escalation force overtime spikes and contract adjustments, depressing earnings power. Disconfirmed if apprentice retention improves and on-time vessel deliveries are verified by late FY2026.
Persistent nuclear certified welder shortages force expensive overtime schedules and trigger cumulative catch-up margin reductions on multi-year aircraft carrier and submarine contracts.16
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
A drop below this level indicates that fixed-price construction contracts are absorbing severe labor cost inflation and schedule rework penalties, eroding earnings power and preventing operating profit stabilization across nuclear vessel programs.
Hiện tại:5.26% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuDrops below 4.5% over any consecutive 12-month period
Huntington Ingalls holds an irreplaceable franchise as the exclusive builder of nuclear aircraft carriers and leading builder of nuclear submarines for the US Navy. These programs generate durable backlog visibility and insulate core shipbuilding lines from defense peer competition.
However, heavy dry dock capital requirements and government contract pricing keep operating margins at 5.26% in FY2025, restraining economic profits despite exceptional structural barriers.
While structural barriers prevent competitor entry, capital intensity limits return on invested capital to 6.08%, near the 6.62% cost of capital.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($377.71). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The modal path reflects steady multi-ship block contract conversion, with revenue compounding at low-to-mid single digits and operating margins stabilizing, delivering Fair value $377.71. Disconfirmed if cumulative catch-up charges emerge or skilled worker attrition accelerates through FY2026.
Confirms labor productivity gains across nuclear submarine programs and reinforces progress toward Fair value $377.71.
Validates steady-state compounding and long-term backlog conversion toward Fair value $377.71.
Signals persistent labor cost friction that slows earnings compounding and narrows the margin of safety relative to Fair value $377.71.
Earnings quality is supported by robust cash conversion, with cash from operations exceeding accounting net income as progress billings align with construction milestones.6
Measures whether shipyard labor productivity and contract milestone pacing are overcoming wage inflation.6
Operating cash flow reached $1,196M in FY2025, delivering $794M in free cash flow after $402M in capex. Cash generation exceeded reported net income of $605M, supported by customer progress payments.56
Capital allocation prioritizes sustaining dry dock modernization funded by operating cash flow in FY2025.
Heavy dry dock capital assets and regulated contract margins keep returns near capital cost, reflecting infrastructure characteristics.
Latest return on invested capital of 6.08% trails cost of capital WACC of 6.62%.
Operating cash flow of $1,196M converted 1.98x net income of $605M in FY2025.
Progress payments shield liquidity from multi-year construction working capital swings.
Capital expenditures absorbed $402M in FY2025, exceeding depreciation of $329M.
Nuclear shipyard modernization requires steady reinvestment, limiting surplus discretionary cash.
| Doanh thu | 12.484.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 10.899.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 1.585.000.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 928.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 657.000.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -52.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 605.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 12.749.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 774.000.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 3.451.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 7.676.000.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 3.045.000.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 5.073.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 605.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 1.196.000.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 329.000.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 54.000.000 US$ |
| Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác | 208.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 1.196.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 2.027.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 831.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư | 521.000.000 US$ |
| Capex | 402.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động đầu tư khác | 119.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 732.000.000 US$ |
| Cổ tức đã trả | 213.000.000 US$ |
| Hoàn trả nợ ròng | 500.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động tài chính khác | 19.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 774.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | -521.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -732.000.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-05 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | 8,1 T US$ | 65,1% | 9% |
| Service | 4,4 T US$ | 34,9% | 6,9% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-20.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 7,1 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 573 Tr US$ | 822 Tr US$ | 537 Tr US$ | 285 Tr US$ | 186 Tr US$ | 36 Tr US$ | 194 Tr US$ | 98 Tr US$ | — | -653 Tr US$ | -343 Tr US$ | — | 720 Tr US$ | 720 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 12,4% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 7,4 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 479 Tr US$ | 814 Tr US$ | 432 Tr US$ | 382 Tr US$ | 205 Tr US$ | 34 Tr US$ | 286 Tr US$ | 115 Tr US$ | — | -349 Tr US$ | -484 Tr US$ | 720 Tr US$ | 701 Tr US$ | 701 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 11,8% | — | 5,9% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 8,2 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 836 Tr US$ | 914 Tr US$ | 451 Tr US$ | 463 Tr US$ | 203 Tr US$ | 36 Tr US$ | 742 Tr US$ | 132 Tr US$ | — | -476 Tr US$ | -899 Tr US$ | 701 Tr US$ | 240 Tr US$ | 240 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 11,6% | — | 6,5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 8,9 T US$ | 980 Tr US$ | 549 Tr US$ | 896 Tr US$ | 366 Tr US$ | 530 Tr US$ | 227 Tr US$ | 30 Tr US$ | 262 Tr US$ | 149 Tr US$ | — | -627 Tr US$ | -434 Tr US$ | 240 Tr US$ | 75 Tr US$ | 75 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 8,3% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 9,4 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 696 Tr US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 740 Tr US$ | 353 Tr US$ | 247 Tr US$ | 23 Tr US$ | 84 Tr US$ | 172 Tr US$ | — | -759 Tr US$ | 103 Tr US$ | 75 Tr US$ | 512 Tr US$ | 512 Tr US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 8,5% | — | 4,1% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 9,5 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 544 Tr US$ | 760 Tr US$ | 429 Tr US$ | 331 Tr US$ | 293 Tr US$ | 33 Tr US$ | 101 Tr US$ | 186 Tr US$ | — | -2 T US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 512 Tr US$ | 627 Tr US$ | 627 Tr US$ | 3,3 T US$ | 5,4% | — | 4,3% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 10,7 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 579 Tr US$ | 766 Tr US$ | 482 Tr US$ | 284 Tr US$ | 358 Tr US$ | 36 Tr US$ | 52 Tr US$ | 192 Tr US$ | -400 Tr US$ | -268 Tr US$ | -658 Tr US$ | 627 Tr US$ | 467 Tr US$ | 467 Tr US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 5,3% | — | 6,2% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 11,5 T US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 681 Tr US$ | 970 Tr US$ | 678 Tr US$ | 292 Tr US$ | 347 Tr US$ | 34 Tr US$ | 75 Tr US$ | 200 Tr US$ | -480 Tr US$ | -236 Tr US$ | -771 Tr US$ | 467 Tr US$ | 430 Tr US$ | 430 Tr US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 6,8% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 11,5 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 550 Tr US$ | 393 Tr US$ | 26 Tr US$ | 367 Tr US$ | 326 Tr US$ | 23 Tr US$ | 162 Tr US$ | 206 Tr US$ | 771 Tr US$ | -348 Tr US$ | 356 Tr US$ | 430 Tr US$ | 831 Tr US$ | 831 Tr US$ | 3,4 T US$ | 4,6% | — | 6,4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 12,5 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 605 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 794 Tr US$ | 402 Tr US$ | 329 Tr US$ | 54 Tr US$ | 0 US$ | 213 Tr US$ | -500 Tr US$ | -521 Tr US$ | -732 Tr US$ | 831 Tr US$ | 774 Tr US$ | 774 Tr US$ | 3,1 T US$ | 5,3% | — | 6,1% | — |
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) trades at 12.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.7x compares with a peer median of 18.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Textron Inc., TransDigm Group Incorporated, GE Aerospace and RTX Corporation, as of 2026-09-20.
Industry capital expenditures track 0.8% of revenue with capex to depreciation of 0.95x, while HII invests at higher intensity with $402M in FY2025 capex to modernize nuclear dry docks.6
Accelerating multi-year naval fleet modernization programs increase Virginia-class submarine build rates and carrier overhaul funding.
Congressional budget caps or procurement pauses stretch delivery schedules, creating fixed shipyard overhead absorption drag.
HII is the cornerstone builder for the US naval fleet, protected by insurmountable dry dock infrastructure barriers.7
Supported by sole-source carrier franchise, multi-decade Navy procurement backlog, and substantial discount to Fair value.
Maintain maximum 6% portfolio weighting, monitoring skilled nuclear welder retention and quarterly progress payment collections to manage contract execution risk.
Irreplaceable nuclear shipbuilding franchise trades at 12.66x forward earnings, providing a wide margin of safety to Fair value of $377.71.4
Sole-source aircraft carrier and submarine backlogs ensure multi-decade revenue visibility and resilient cash flow conversion.67
Strong cash conversion supports $213M in annual dividends and dry dock investments while offering 38.4% capital appreciation potential.6
Accumulate shares up to a 4-6% portfolio allocation given sole-source carrier dominance and 38.4% upside to Fair value of $377.71.4
Progress payments on multi-year Navy contracts shield cash generation, funding shipyard capital investment while maintaining balance-sheet flexibility.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Federal defense budget impasses defer submarine procurement contract tranches, slowing annual revenue expansion below long-term GDP baselines.1
Investors de-rate the equity multiple toward historical trough levels of 11.0x forward earnings as capital returns trail cost of capital benchmarks.24
Macroeconomic volatility and elevated shipyard operational execution risks drive the required return on equity above 8.2%.2
Growth slowing beneath this floor demonstrates that naval procurement appropriations or shipyard throughput bottlenecks are delaying submarine module integration, stalling backlog conversion and curtailing top-line compounding across major defense programs.
Hiện tại:$8,133M in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuFalls below 2.0% annual expansion through FY2027
Operating cash generation failing to track accounting net income reveals severe working capital absorption from deferred milestone billings or uncompensated customer design changes, impairing sustaining capital expenditure funding for nuclear dry dock infrastructure.
Hiện tại:$1,196M in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuConverts at less than 0.80x reported net income over a trailing four-quarter window
Capital outlays exceeding this intensity indicate mounting shipyard infrastructure maintenance demands or unbudgeted facility overhauls, consuming discretionary free cash flow and reducing returns generated on invested dry dock assets.
Hiện tại:$402M in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuExceeds 4.5% of total revenue over any fiscal year
Per-share earnings compressing below this floor demonstrates acute nuclear welder overtime expense surges and contract cumulative catch-up charges, disconfirming near-term margin recovery and impairing long-term earnings compounding.
Hiện tại:$4.50 projected for Q3 2026
Cảnh báo nếuFalls below $3.80 in any single quarter through FY2026
Limitation: Terminal value is 72.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 150 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 308 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 458 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Under accelerated naval appropriations and Virginia-class submarine throughput, digital shipyard productivity drives margin expansion toward Potential value $570.12. Disconfirmed if quarterly operating margins stall or contract awards face legislative delays through FY2027.
Demonstrates whether customer milestone collections keep pace with reported net earnings.6
Reflects per-share earnings power compounding under steady share count.1
Determines the cash drain required to maintain and modernize nuclear dry dock facilities.6
| $14.83B |
| $15.35B |
| $15.81B |
| Operating income | $734.10M | $780.65M | $815.78M | $844.33M | $869.66M |
| NOPAT | $592.94M | $630.53M | $658.90M | $681.96M | $702.42M |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $592.94M | $630.53M | $658.90M | $681.96M | $702.42M |
| Revenue growth | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Biên |
|---|
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. | $10.8B | 12.7x | 0.8x | 11.7x | 13.0% | — |
| TXT | Textron Inc. | $13.9B | 11.0x | 0.9x | 9.8x | 12.1% | 8.7% |
| TDG | TransDigm Group Incorporated | $60.7B | 22.5x | 6.1x | 17.8x | — | 46.0% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | $326.1B | 34.6x | 6.4x | 29.3x | 48.2% | 20.6% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | $261.5B | 24.7x | 2.8x | 18.5x | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Review milestone billing pacing and working capital absorption6 |
