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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MAR — frequently asked questions
Is Marriott International, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, MAR looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 359 USD versus our fair value of 228 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 304 USD. That implies roughly 36.5% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives MAR a fair value of 228 USD and a potential value of 304 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Marriott International, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MAR now?
Our latest published rating for MAR, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Marriott International, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 359 USD versus fair value of 228 USD; potential value is 304 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MAR?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Marriott International, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MAR's rating?
Our latest published rating for MAR, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 228 USD, the potential value of 304 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (359 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$358.69
Giá trị hợp lý
$227.84
Giá trị tiềm năng
$303.69
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze: Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Cycle upside
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Sell. The $94.5B market capitalization leaves zero margin of safety, pricing in perpetual double-digit growth while ignoring cyclical travel risks.
Tổng quan công ty
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A severe macroeconomic contraction compresses RevPAR, while sustained high interest rates raise the cost of servicing $17B in debt, forcing a halt to share buybacks and destroying EPS growth momentum.
A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown stalls RevPAR growth, while structural heavy debt loads ($17B) and higher interest rates restrict share buybacks and compress equity valuations.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze
Medium
Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
Hiện tại:Revenue growth was 4.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuFalls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers. — Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.Wide
02Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power. — Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.Wide
03Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams. — Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Consolidation of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) compressing intermediary margins.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Institutionalization of alternative lodging supply (e.g., Airbnb) capturing broader demographics.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($227.84). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Hold
Kích hoạt: In-line results
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
Hụt
Reassess
Kích hoạt: Downside surprise
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
Hiện tạiRevenue growth was 4.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters. Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất26,2 TCAGR doanh thu +8,0%
Biên hoạt động15,8%4 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất2,6 TFY2025
Nợ ròng16,7 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu26,2 TGiá vốn doanh thu−21 TLợi nhuận gộp5,2 TChi phí hoạt động−1,1 TLợi nhuận hoạt động4,1 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1,5 TLợi nhuận ròng2,6 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
26.186.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
20.964.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
5.222.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
1.083.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.139.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.538.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.601.000.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản27,5 TTiền mặt358 TrTài sản ngắn hạn3,6 TTổng nợ phải trả31,3 TNợ ngắn hạn8,4 TThâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu3,8 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
27.540.000.000
Tiền mặt
358.000.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
3.584.000.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
31.311.000.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
8.398.000.000
Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu
3.771.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-12-31
20,8 T
3,9 T
2,4 T
2,4 T
2 T
332 Tr
400 Tr
192 Tr
2,6 T
321 Tr
-3 Tr
—
—
—
—
507 Tr
11,1 T
16,7%
—
9,6%
—
2023-12-31
23,7 T
4,4 T
3,1 T
3,2 T
2,7 T
452 Tr
436 Tr
205 Tr
4 T
587 Tr
1,8 T
—
—
—
—
338 Tr
12,8 T
16,5%
—
10,1%
—
2024-12-31
25,1 T
4,3 T
2,4 T
2,7 T
2 T
750 Tr
492 Tr
237 Tr
3,8 T
682 Tr
2,6 T
—
—
—
—
396 Tr
15,2 T
15,3%
—
10,7%
—
2025-12-31
26,2 T
4,8 T
2,6 T
3,2 T
2,6 T
604 Tr
599 Tr
236 Tr
3,3 T
718 Tr
1,7 T
—
—
—
—
358 Tr
17,1 T
15,8%
—
8,7%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Marriott International, Inc.MAR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý227,84 US$Report-date price358,69 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.HLT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý183,91 US$Report-date price313,96 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý183,76 US$Report-date price258,51 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
Marriott International, Inc.MAR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý227,84 US$Report-date price358,69 US$
MAR trades at 27.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.4x; EV/EBITDA of 23.6x against a peer median of 18.5x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Macroeconomic tightening slashes discretionary consumer travel and corporate group bookings, directly impacting fee generation.
Định vị
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Avoid allocation. The massive 36% downside to the base case provides zero margin of safety for fundamental allocators.
Rủi ro
Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Await a major cyclical washout or severe multiple compression closer to the $225 intrinsic level before contemplating initiation.
Await a major cyclical washout or severe multiple compression closer to the $225 intrinsic level before contemplating initiation.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Marriott operates an exceptional, moat-protected franchise model, the stock trades at a staggering premium to unlevered free cash flows. Sustained, flawless execution is entirely priced in, leaving investors vulnerable to cyclical mean reversion.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
Sell. Unfavorable risk/reward asymmetry is driven by stretched multiples, cycle-peak assumptions, and a massive gap to intrinsic fundamental value.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Elevated financial debt increases debt service burdens during high interest rate environments, restricting financial flexibility and forcing management to curtail shareholder capital returns.
Hiện tại:$17B total debt load against $4.80B EBITDA for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuExceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters
03
Share Repurchase Program Curtailment
Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
Hiện tại:Active share repurchase program as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuFormal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases
04
Global Room Pipeline Contraction
A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
Hiện tại:Active global room addition pipeline as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuContracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period
05
Loyalty Program Active Member Engagement
Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
Hiện tại:Active Bonvoy loyalty platform engagement as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuSustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Prolonged corporate travel budget optimization structurally reducing group volume.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Stable debt servicing costs.
Marriott maintains asset-light operating leverage and steady cash flows, but the current market valuation excessively pulls forward perpetual growth, necessitating a sharp multiple contraction to align with fundamentals.
Hiện tại$17B total debt load against $4.80B EBITDA for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Exceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters. Elevated financial debt increases debt service burdens during high interest rate environments, restricting financial flexibility and forcing management to curtail shareholder capital returns.
03
Chỉ số:
Share Repurchase Program Curtailment
Hiện tạiActive share repurchase program as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Formal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases. Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
04
Chỉ số:
Global Room Pipeline Contraction
Hiện tạiActive global room addition pipeline as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Contracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period. A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
05
Chỉ số:
Loyalty Program Active Member Engagement
Hiện tạiActive Bonvoy loyalty platform engagement as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Sustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings. Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
Tesla Inc.TSLA
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý24,84 US$Report-date price354,08 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư49 / 100
The Home Depot, Inc.HD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý215,78 US$Report-date price321,05 US$
