Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)
NASDAQ: MAR · Real-Time Price · USD
$353
+1.13 (+0.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MAR rated Sell
MAR is rated Sell at $358.69 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $227.84, implying -36.48% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$228 / share
$152 – $304
Upside to FV
-36.5%
from $353
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
Biggest risk
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Sell
MAR is rated Sell at $358.69 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $227.84, implying -36.48% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $94.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 7.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $9.55 | |
| Shares out | 263.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 37.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.4x | |
| Dividend | $2.68 (0.76%) | |
| Volume | 1,067,978 | |
| Beta | 1.11 | |
| Price target | $376 | +6.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 7.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $9.55
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.4x
- Market cap
- $94.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $20.77B | $23.71B | $25.10B | $26.19B | +8.0% |
| Gross profit | $4.56B | $4.98B | $4.97B | $5.22B | +4.6% |
| Operating income | $3.47B | $3.92B | $3.84B | $4.14B | +6.0% |
| Net income | $2.36B | $3.08B | $2.38B | $2.60B | +3.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.24 | $10.18 | $8.33 | $9.51 | +9.5% |
| EBITDA | $3.92B | $4.38B | $4.34B | $4.80B | +7.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $891.0M | $867.0M | $945.0M | $870.0M | -0.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $152
- Fair value (mid)
- $228
- Fair value (high)
- $304
- Current price
- $353
- Upside to mid
- -36.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $177 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $183 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $320 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $266 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $171 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $118 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $47.65 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$376
+6.4%
In the news
Latest news · MAR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $94.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 37.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.4x
- P/S
- 13.0x
- PEG
- 2.63
- EV / EBITDA
- 23.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 79.0%
- Operating margin
- 59.3%
- ROA
- 9.8%
- ROIC
- 24.3%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 0.46
- Quick ratio
- 0.42
Trading
- Beta
- 1.11
- Volume
- 1,067,978
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -36.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$303.69
-15.3% from spot
Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
- Revenue growth sustained above 6% annually.
- Terminal multiple expands beyond 25x.
- Continuous aggressive share count reduction.
Base60%
Price target
$227.84
-36.5% from spot
Marriott maintains asset-light operating leverage and steady cash flows, but the current market valuation excessively pulls forward perpetual growth, necessitating a sharp multiple contraction to align with fundamentals.
- RevPAR stabilizes to historical norms.
- Terminal multiple compression to 22x.
- Stable debt servicing costs.
Bear20%
Price target
$151.90
-57.7% from spot
A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown stalls RevPAR growth, while structural heavy debt loads ($17B) and higher interest rates restrict share buybacks and compress equity valuations.
- Corporate travel recession triggers margin decay.
- Interest expense crowds out buybacks.
- Terminal growth decays to 2%.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $228.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $177 | -49.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $183 | -48.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $320 | -9.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $266 | -24.6% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $171 | -51.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $118 | -66.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $47.6 | -86.5% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $228 | -36.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($227.84). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $266 | $290 | $319 | $354 | $399 |
| 9.0% | $228 | $245 | $266 | $290 | $319 |
| 10.0% | $199 | $213 | $228 | $245 | $266 |
| 11.0% | $177 | $188 | $199 | $213 | $228 |
| 12.0% | $159 | $168 | $177 | $188 | $199 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Avoid allocation. The massive 36% downside to the base case provides zero margin of safety for fundamental allocators.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$353
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC24.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MAR indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
270
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 270 of 270 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MAR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MAR report
What is the current MAR stock rating?
Marriott International, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MAR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MAR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MAR?
The latest report frames MAR around $152 to $304. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MAR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellMAR · Fair value $228-36.5% · Confidence 88/100