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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NDAQ — frequently asked questions
Is Nasdaq, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 92,0 USD versus our fair value of 70,2 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 87,7 USD. That implies roughly 23.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives NDAQ a fair value of 70,2 USD and a potential value of 87,7 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Nasdaq, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NDAQ now?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Nasdaq, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 92,0 USD versus fair value of 70,2 USD; potential value is 87,7 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NDAQ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Nasdaq, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NDAQ's rating?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 70,2 USD, the potential value of 87,7 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (92,0 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$91.98
Giá trị hợp lý
$70.15
Giá trị tiềm năng
$87.67
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Network effects in core exchange
Network effects in core exchange listings
High switching costs in data
High switching costs in data and analytics software
Cycle upside
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Sell. The current valuation embeds aggressive implied growth expectations that ignore a near-term revenue contraction, leaving the risk/reward profile skewed to the downside despite robust fundamentals.
Tổng quan công ty
Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms. It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies. In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services. The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.
Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Hiện tại:29.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($73.18). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Warning level: < 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất8,3 TCAGR doanh thu +9,9%
Biên hoạt động29,4%4 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất2 TFY2025
Nợ ròng8,9 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu8,3 TGiá vốn doanh thu−4,8 TLợi nhuận gộp3,5 TChi phí hoạt động−1,1 TLợi nhuận hoạt động2,4 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−645 TrLợi nhuận ròng1,8 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
8.262.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
4.773.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
3.489.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
1.056.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
2.433.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-645.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.788.000.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản31,1 TTiền mặt604 TrTài sản ngắn hạn8 TTổng nợ phải trả18,8 TNợ ngắn hạn8 TVốn chủ sở hữu12,2 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
31.053.000.000
Tiền mặt
604.000.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
8.003.000.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
18.821.000.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
7.961.000.000
Vốn chủ sở hữu
12.227.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-12-31
6,2 T
1,9 T
1,1 T
1,7 T
1,6 T
152 Tr
258 Tr
106 Tr
633 Tr
383 Tr
-318 Tr
—
—
—
—
502 Tr
5,9 T
26,7%
—
7,2%
—
2023-12-31
6,1 T
2 T
1,1 T
1,7 T
1,5 T
158 Tr
323 Tr
122 Tr
269 Tr
441 Tr
5 T
—
—
—
—
453 Tr
10,9 T
29,8%
—
6,8%
—
2024-12-31
7,4 T
2,5 T
1,1 T
1,9 T
1,7 T
207 Tr
613 Tr
141 Tr
145 Tr
541 Tr
-812 Tr
—
—
—
—
592 Tr
9,9 T
26,3%
—
7,8%
—
2025-12-31
8,3 T
3,1 T
1,8 T
2,3 T
2 T
266 Tr
632 Tr
165 Tr
616 Tr
601 Tr
-826 Tr
—
—
—
—
604 Tr
9,5 T
29,4%
—
8,2%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý70,15 US$Report-date price91,98 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
S&P Global Inc.SPGI
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý355,55 US$Report-date price389,35 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
CME Group Inc.CME
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý261,16 US$Report-date price302,37 US$
NDAQ trades at 20.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.4x; EV/EBITDA of 19.0x against a peer median of 21.5x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, compressing high-margin transactional revenues.
Định vị
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Given the -23.7% downside to the $70.15 mid-point fair value and explicit execution risks in the Year 1 revenue transition, the position warrants an underweight or avoid stance until the valuation normalizes.
Rủi ro
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Nasdaq boasts a wide moat and highly predictable mature software/data segment revenue, the current $91.98 price is stretched versus base fundamentals. Reverse DCF reveals the market is pricing in flawless execution, ignoring the near-term restructuring drag.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
Sell. The composite explicitly incorporates execution risk, blending strict intrinsic cash generation with normalized forward multiples, yielding a $70.15 mid-point.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Listing Share Erosion
Low
Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.
FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
Hiện tại:11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
03
Core Listing Market Share
Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
Hiện tại:Dominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuLoss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year
04
Market Data Pricing Freedom
Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Hiện tại:Unrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếu>= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year
Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
Hiện tại:1.261 as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếu< 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth, with margins reverting to 40%.
11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: < 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
03
Chỉ số:
Core Listing Market Share
Hiện tạiDominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Loss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year. Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
04
Chỉ số:
Market Data Pricing Freedom
Hiện tạiUnrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: >= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year. Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Warning level: < 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis. Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.ICE
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý133,03 US$Report-date price154,31 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
Moody's CorporationMCO
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý327,35 US$Report-date price441,36 US$