Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQ: NDAQ · Real-Time Price · USD
$88.9
-0.09 (-0.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NDAQ rated Reduce
NDAQ is rated Reduce at $91.98 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $70.15, implying -23.73% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$70.2 / share
$52.9 – $87.7
Upside to FV
-23.7%
from $88.9
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Biggest risk
Severe IPO Drought
Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Recommended action
Reduce
NDAQ is rated Reduce at $91.98 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $70.15, implying -23.73% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $52.0B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 5.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.32 | |
| Shares out | 565.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 26.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 20.8x | |
| Dividend | $1.24 (1.39%) | |
| Volume | 2,558,878 | |
| Beta | 0.99 | |
| Price target | $106 | +18.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 5.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.32
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.8x
- Market cap
- $52.0B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $6.23B | $6.06B | $7.40B | $8.26B | +7.3% |
| Gross profit | — | $2.34B | $2.55B | $2.99B | $3.49B | +10.5% |
| Operating income | — | $1.66B | $1.81B | $1.95B | $2.43B | +10.0% |
| Net income | — | $1.13B | $1.06B | $1.12B | $1.79B | +12.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.35 | $2.26 | $2.08 | $1.93 | $3.09 | +7.1% |
| EBITDA | — | $1.85B | $2.00B | $2.46B | $3.13B | +14.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $420.0M | $417.0M | $427.0M | $424.0M | +0.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $52.9
- Fair value (mid)
- $70.2
- Fair value (high)
- $87.7
- Current price
- $88.9
- Upside to mid
- -23.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $40.89 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $73.18 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $78.21 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $125 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $52.19 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$106
+18.8%
In the news
Latest news · NDAQ
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $52.0B
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 20.8x
- P/S
- 9.3x
- P/B
- 4.2x
- PEG
- 1.74
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 100.0%
- Operating margin
- 47.5%
- ROE
- 16.2%
- ROA
- 5.6%
- ROIC
- 10.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.79
- Current ratio
- 1.00
- Quick ratio
- 0.35
Trading
- Beta
- 0.99
- Volume
- 2,558,878
- Dividend yield
- 1.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -23.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$87.67
-4.7% from spot
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
- Seamless Verafin integration
- Rebound in IPO activity
- Margin expansion above 50%
Base60%
Price target
$70.15
-23.7% from spot
A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth, with margins reverting to 40%.
- -30.3% Year 1 revenue growth
- +8.4% Year 2 revenue growth
- 40% operating margin stabilization
Bear20%
Price target
$52.90
-42.5% from spot
Prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power.
- Prolonged IPO drought
- Regulatory pricing pressure on data
- Operating margins compress below 40%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $70.2.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $40.9 | -54.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $73.2 | -17.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $78.2 | -12.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $125 | +40.4% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $52.2 | -41.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $70.2 | -23.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($73.18). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $87.6 | $97.3 | $109 | $125 | $128 |
| 8.1% | $73.2 | $79.8 | $87.6 | $97.3 | $109 |
| 9.1% | $62.8 | $67.6 | $73.2 | $79.8 | $87.6 |
| 10.1% | $55.0 | $58.7 | $62.8 | $67.6 | $73.2 |
| 11.1% | $49.0 | $51.8 | $55.0 | $58.7 | $62.8 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.4
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.4 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Given the -23.7% downside to the $70.15 mid-point fair value and explicit execution risks in the Year 1 revenue transition, the position warrants an underweight or avoid stance until the valuation normalizes.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$88.9
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E20.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC10
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NDAQ indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NDAQ
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NDAQ report
What is the current NDAQ stock rating?
Nasdaq, Inc. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NDAQ analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NDAQ/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NDAQ?
The latest report frames NDAQ around $53 to $88. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NDAQ page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceNDAQ · Fair value $70.2-23.7% · Confidence 82/100