Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
NASDAQ: SBUX · Real-Time Price · USD
$105
+0.67 (+0.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: SBUX rated Sell
SBUX is rated Sell at $104.93 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $40.42, implying -61.48% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Fair value (mid)
$40.4 / share
$31.8 – $49.1
Upside to FV
-61.5%
from $105
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful execution of operational efficiencies restores operating margins to 15%+, while international markets re-accelerate.
Biggest risk
Margin Compression Sustained
Margin Compression Sustained: Operating margins remain stuck at 9-10% due to permanent structural shifts in labor and input costs.
Recommended action
Sell
SBUX is rated Sell at $104.93 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $40.42, implying -61.48% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 80/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $119.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 38.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.31 | |
| Shares out | 1.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 80.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 34.8x | |
| Dividend | $2.48 (2.36%) | |
| Volume | 4,538,164 | |
| Beta | 1.01 | |
| Price target | $105 | +0.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Starbucks CorporationSBUX
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 38.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.31
- P/E (trailing)
- 80.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 34.8x
- Market cap
- $119.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $32.25B | $35.98B | $36.18B | $37.18B | +4.9% |
| Gross profit | $8.37B | $9.85B | $9.71B | $8.47B | +0.4% |
| Operating income | $4.43B | $5.50B | $5.11B | $3.58B | -6.8% |
| Net income | $3.28B | $4.12B | $3.76B | $1.86B | -17.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.83 | $3.58 | $3.31 | $1.63 | -16.8% |
| EBITDA | $6.24B | $7.40B | $7.12B | $4.82B | -8.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.03B | $2.44B | $2.52B | $2.62B | +8.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $31.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $40.4
- Fair value (high)
- $49.1
- Current price
- $105
- Upside to mid
- -61.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ddm | $39.61 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $39.65 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $45.86 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $62.63 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $12.03 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $10.37 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$105
+0.1%
In the news
Latest news · SBUX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $119.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 80.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 34.8x
- P/S
- 3.1x
- PEG
- 2.02
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 21.9%
- Operating margin
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 7.4%
- ROIC
- 16.0%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 0.92
- Quick ratio
- 0.26
Trading
- Beta
- 1.01
- Volume
- 4,538,164
- Dividend yield
- 2.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -61.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$49.10
-53.2% from spot
Successful execution of operational efficiencies restores operating margins to 15%+, while international markets re-accelerate.
- Margins normalize above 15% through operational efficiencies.
- China market growth re-accelerates materially.
Base60%
Price target
$40.42
-61.5% from spot
Margins normalize to the 14% historical mean. Steady low-single-digit top-line growth is achieved alongside a stable dividend payout.
- Operating margins normalize at 14%.
- Terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Bear20%
Price target
$31.78
-69.7% from spot
Labor inflation and China competition lead to permanently lower margins and flat traffic. Growth expectations reset materially lower.
- Operating margins stuck around 9.6%.
- Prolonged traffic decline in North America.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $40.4.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ddm | 25% | $39.6 | -62.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 35% | $39.6 | -62.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $45.9 | -56.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $62.6 | -40.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $12.0 | -88.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $10.4 | -90.1% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $40.4 | -61.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $48.0 | $53.0 | $59.1 | $66.8 | $70.7 |
| 7.8% | $40.4 | $43.9 | $48.0 | $53.0 | $59.1 |
| 8.8% | $34.9 | $37.5 | $40.4 | $43.9 | $48.0 |
| 9.8% | $30.7 | $32.7 | $34.9 | $37.5 | $40.4 |
| 10.8% | $27.4 | $29.0 | $30.7 | $32.7 | $34.9 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation1.5
Management5.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
5.3/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 80/100
Target weight
Avoid long exposure. The market prices in an unachievable 22.8% implied growth rate.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$105
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing long positions given the severe fundamental overvaluation.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E34.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC16
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All SBUX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
277
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 277 of 277 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on SBUX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this SBUX report
What is the current SBUX stock rating?
Starbucks Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full SBUX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/SBUX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for SBUX?
The latest report frames SBUX around $32 to $49. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the SBUX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellSBUX · Fair value $40.4-61.5% · Confidence 80/100