Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)
NYSE: SNOW · Real-Time Price · USD
$152
-1.28 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: SNOW rated Hold
SNOW is rated Hold at $152.45 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $154.60, implying +1.41% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 76/100.
Fair value (mid)
$155 / share
$104 – $217
Upside to FV
+1.4%
from $152
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).
Biggest risk
Hyperscaler displacement
internal valuation cross-checks: private calibration expectations ($232.74) ignore real economic cost of dilution.
Recommended action
Hold
SNOW is rated Hold at $152.45 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $154.60, implying +1.41% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 76/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $52.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 4.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -1.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $-3.95 | |
| Shares out | 345.3M | |
| P/E (forward) | 62.7x | |
| Volume | 7,280,485 | |
| Beta | 1.08 | |
| Price target | $249 | +63.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Snowflake Inc.SNOW
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 4.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- -1.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $-3.95
- P/E (forward)
- 62.7x
- Market cap
- $52.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $2.07B | $2.81B | $3.63B | $4.68B | +31.4% |
| Gross profit | $1.35B | $1.91B | $2.41B | $3.15B | +32.6% |
| Operating income | $-842.3M | $-1.09B | $-1.46B | $-1.44B | — |
| Net income | $-796.7M | $-836.1M | $-1.29B | $-1.33B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.50 | $-2.55 | $-3.86 | $-3.95 | — |
| EBITDA | $-752.5M | $-729.3M | $-1.10B | $-1.08B | — |
| R&D | $788.1M | $1.29B | $1.78B | $1.97B | +35.7% |
| SG&A | $1.40B | $1.71B | $2.08B | $2.61B | +23.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $104
- Fair value (mid)
- $155
- Fair value (high)
- $217
- Current price
- $152
- Upside to mid
- +1.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | $161 | 95% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $42.33 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$249
+63.1%
In the news
Latest news · SNOW
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $52.7B
- P/E (forward)
- 62.7x
- P/S
- 11.2x
- P/B
- 27.2x
- PEG
- 2.85
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.2%
- Operating margin
- -30.6%
- ROE
- -53.9%
- ROA
- -9.9%
- ROIC
- -17.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.42
- Current ratio
- 1.30
- Quick ratio
- 1.21
Trading
- Beta
- 1.08
- Volume
- 7,280,485
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +1.6% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$216.73
+42.2% from spot
Data gravity intensifies dramatically. Snowflake successfully monetizes AI workloads, sustaining 25%+ growth longer than expected and leveraging gross margins past 75% to generate massive mature cash flows.
- AI/ML workloads drive massive consumption acceleration
- Terminal EV/Revenue expands past 10x
- Operating leverage pushes margins toward 35%
Base45%
Price target
$154.60
+1.4% from spot
Snowflake sustains robust top-line growth but structural SBC dilution persists. Operating margins converge to 25% rather than software industry averages. The 8x terminal multiple appropriately caps upside relative to internal valuation cross-checks.
- Revenue CAGR >20% over medium term
- Terminal EV/Revenue multiple of 8x
- Normalized operating margin caps at 25%
Bear30%
Price target
$103.71
-32.0% from spot
Prolonged IT cost-cutting stalls Snowflake's growth trajectory. High SBC continues to deeply dilute shareholders, preventing the realization of true per-share value creation. Multiple compresses toward mature legacy tech levels.
- Consumption optimization severely dampens revenue growth
- Terminal EV/Revenue compresses to 5x
- SBC dilution outpaces value creation permanently
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $155.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | 95% | $161 | +5.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $42.3 | -72.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $155 | +1.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $184 | $198 | $215 | $235 | $259 |
| 9.9% | $161 | $171 | $184 | $198 | $215 |
| 10.9% | $142 | $151 | $161 | $171 | $184 |
| 11.9% | $128 | $135 | $142 | $151 | $161 |
| 12.9% | $116 | $122 | $128 | $135 | $142 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation6.0
Management6.7
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.1/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 76/100
Target weight
Limit to maximum 2% of portfolio given binary valuation risks and lack of current GAAP profitability.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$152
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if price breaches $180 or if NRR deteriorates below 110%.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E62.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-53.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-17.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All SNOW indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
234
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 234 of 234 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on SNOW
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this SNOW report
What is the current SNOW stock rating?
Snowflake Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full SNOW analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/SNOW/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for SNOW?
The latest report frames SNOW around $104 to $217. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the SNOW page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldSNOW · Fair value $155+1.4% · Confidence 76/100