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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TDG — frequently asked questions
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-22, TDG trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 1.113 USD versus our fair value of 1.148 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 1.369 USD. That implies roughly 3.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, gives TDG a fair value of 1.148 USD and a potential value of 1.369 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for TransDigm Group Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TDG now?
Our latest published rating for TDG, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Hold. TransDigm Group Incorporated trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 1.113 USD versus fair value of 1.148 USD; potential value is 1.369 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TDG?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-22 documents TransDigm Group Incorporated's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TDG's rating?
Our latest published rating for TDG, analyzed 2026-10-22, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 1.148 USD, the potential value of 1.369 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (1.113 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyHold
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$1,113.01
Giá trị hợp lý
$1,148.16
Giá trị tiềm năng
$1,368.99
Tính đến
2026-10-22
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerating commercial widebody aircraft utilization and OEM build-rate ramps expanding the high-margin proprietary aftermarket installed base, combined with accretive roll-in of newly acquired businesses (Jet Parts Engineering, Victor Sierra, and Prince & Izant) driving adjusted EPS compounding through FY2031.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Regulatory defense procurement audits targeting sole-source aftermarket pricing or pushback from commercial airline operators on price escalations.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) trades at $1,113.01, representing a 3.16% upside to our central Fair Value estimate of $1,148.16 and supporting our Hold rating. While TransDigm's proprietary aftermarket dominance and ~50% operating margins remain unmatched among aerospace suppliers, current market levels fully reflect its near-term earnings compounding against an elevated $33.49B debt load.4
TransDigm's operational model combines proprietary aerospace components, sole-source manufacturing positions, and disciplined aftermarket pricing. In FY2025, the company generated $4,165M in operating profit on $8,831M of net sales (47.16% operating margin), while delivering $1,816M in free cash flow. of $222M represented just 2.5% of , highlighting the asset-light nature of its manufacturing portfolio.
Following strong Q3 FY2026 results with commercial aftermarket revenue expanding 17%, management raised full-year guidance to $10.51B in sales, $5.52B in EBITDA As Defined (~52.5% margin), $41.04 in adjusted EPS, and ~$2.6B in free cash flow. Base businesses continue to deliver 100 to 150 basis points of annual constant-mix margin improvement, absorbing dilution from recent acquisitions including Jet Parts Engineering, Victor Sierra ($2.2B), and Prince & Izant ($1.07B).5
However, at 23.09x forward earnings, valuation offers a modest 3.2% upside to our central Fair Value of $1,148.16. TransDigm carries $33.49B in total debt and a negative stockholders' deficit resulting from historical debt-funded capital distributions and repurchases. While high operating profitability shields debt service, refinancing costs and multiple sensitivity warrant maintaining existing positions rather than aggressive capital deployment.4
Over 90% of revenue is proprietary with FAA-certified intellectual property, driving a 47.16% FY2025 operating margin and 100 to 150 bps annual margin gains on constant mix.5,7
Commercial Fleet Utilization and Aftermarket Compounding
Expanding commercial flight hours and an aging global fleet drive high-margin replacement demand, supporting low-double-digit aftermarket revenue growth.5
Accretive Bolt-On Acquisition Track Record
Proven acquisition playbook integrating sole-source manufacturers such as Jet Parts Engineering, Victor Sierra, and Prince & Izant, expanding the high-margin installed base.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
High business quality and proprietary pricing power are offset by full valuation at 23.09x forward P/E and an elevated $33.49B debt load.4
Tổng quan công ty
TransDigm Group Incorporated is a leading global designer, producer, and supplier of highly engineered aircraft components for commercial and military aircraft in service today. Major product offerings include mechanical and electro-mechanical actuators, ignition systems, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized motors, and cargo delivery systems.
The company operates primarily across two reporting segments: Power & Control ($4,559M in FY2025 net sales) and Airframe ($4,112M in FY2025 net sales), with Non-aviation generating $160M. Geographically, United States sales were $5,535M while international non-US sales reached $3,296M. Customer concentration is highly fragmented, with no single customer accounting for 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2025, 2024, or 2023.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A compounded stress scenario models a simultaneous downturn in global commercial aviation flight hours, legislative limits on sole-source defense parts markups, and elevated benchmark borrowing costs. Under this stress test, operating margin contracts by 600 bps below modeled levels toward 41.5%, while refinancing yields on TransDigm's $33.49B total debt burden push computed WACC above 9.74%. With annual interest expense exceeding $2.0B against lower operating income, discretionary free cash flow for share repurchases and bolt-on acquisitions is sharply curtailed, compressing valuation multiples toward traditional defense prime levels of 17.6x.
In the Bear case, commercial aerospace maintenance spending softens, regulatory scrutiny restricts defense sole-source spare pricing markups, and debt refinancing costs elevate interest expense across the capital structure.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Regulatory pricing scrutiny and commercial aftermarket resistance compress operating profitability
Operating income of $4,165M on $8,831M revenue yielded a 47.16% operating margin in FY2025. A 600 bps margin compression below 41.5% driven by defense procurement audits on sole-source pricing and commercial airline pushback reduces earnings compounding severely, driving an estimated 28.5% fair value decline.7
FV impact
-2.4%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Operating margin erosion below 45.0% would signal that recent acquisition dilution cannot be absorbed by base business pricing or that defense procurement audits are constraining sole-source spare pricing markups.
Hiện tại:47.16% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 45.0% on a trailing twelve-month basis
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
TransDigm commands a Wide economic moat rooted in its ownership of proprietary intellectual property and FAA/EASA technical certifications across virtually all commercial and military aircraft in active service. Over 90% of consolidated revenue is generated by proprietary parts, the vast majority of which are sole-source. This structural positioning shields the company from direct competitive bidding and enables value-based pricing, driving an FY2025 GAAP operating margin of 47.16% and guided FY2026 EBITDA As Defined margins of ~52.5%.
The economics of TransDigm's catalog are reinforced by an installed-base compounding dynamic. Aftermarket replacement parts, which generate substantially higher profitability than OEM line-fit sales, provide recurring cash flow across the 30-year operational life of commercial fleets. Management targets and delivers 100 to 150 basis points of annual constant-mix margin improvement across base businesses, demonstrating exceptional pricing discipline and operational execution that peer aerospace contractors cannot match.
Customer fragmentation further reinforces the moat. No individual customer represented 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2023, 2024, or 2025. Demand is distributed globally across airlines, cargo carriers, defense logistics agencies, and tier-1 sub-tier integrators, insulating TransDigm from concentrated distributor pushback or customer cancellations.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
TransDigm generates return on invested capital of ~17.8%, substantially exceeding its computed moderate cost of equity of 9.10% and computed WACC of 7.74%. Operating income of $4,165M on $8,831M revenue in FY2025 represents a 47.16% operating margin, outperforming aerospace peers GD at 10.38% and the industry benchmark operating margin of 8.70%.2,3,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs & Regulatory Certification Barriers — Over 90% of TransDigm's revenue is generated by proprietary components where the company owns the engineering design IP and holds sole-source FAA/EASA certifications across aircraft lifecycles. Recertifying alternative components requires substantial capital outlays and regulatory timelines spanning years, locking in airline and OEM reliance.Wide
02Sole-Source Installed Base and High Cost-of-Failure Engineering — TransDigm's components are engineered directly into airframe and engine architectures at aircraft inception, securing single-source positions across 30-plus-year operational lifecycles. Because these mission-critical components represent a fraction of total aircraft operating costs but carry severe cost-of-failure penalties, customer demand exhibits minimal price elasticity.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Legislative and Department of Defense oversight on sole-source spare parts pricing
medium
12 to 24 months
Defense constitutes a minority of total revenue with high-single to low-double-digit growth expectations, and legislative proposals remain evolving with broad industry scope rather than targeting individual suppliers.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($1,148.16). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.6B after modeled reinvestment of $232.3M, with terminal value at 79.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the Bull case, global commercial flight hours expand rapidly, OEM build rates at Boeing and Airbus accelerate, and recent acquisitions achieve faster-than-modeled synergy realization with sustained pricing power.
Multi-year revenue compounding in line with commercial aftermarket flight-hour recovery and defense budget growth
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Maintain Hold; Re-examine commercial aftermarket reorder velocity, confirm organic margin trajectory across newly integrated acquisitions, and maintain position weight without expanding allocation.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly revenue and adjusted EPS outperforming guidance ranges, accompanied by EBITDA As Defined margin expanding above target expectations
A quarterly earnings beat validates top-line momentum and aftermarket pricing power, but current market valuation of $1,113.01 already reflects low-double-digit medium-term compounding against an elevated $33.49B debt load.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly revenue and adjusted EPS tracking within management guidance ranges, with EBITDA As Defined margin holding near guided baselines
Inline execution confirms management's raised FY2026 targets of $10.51B revenue midpoint, $41.04 adjusted EPS midpoint, and ~52.5% EBITDA As Defined margin, keeping fair value balanced with market price.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Re-evaluate exposure, trim position size to defend capital, and audit commercial aftermarket booking deceleration and margin dilution.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly revenue or adjusted EPS falling short of guidance ranges, or EBITDA As Defined margin compressing materially below historical baselines
An earnings miss or EBITDA As Defined margin deterioration would indicate that acquisition dilution and debt service costs are overwhelming core pricing power, triggering multiple de-rating toward peer contractor benchmarks.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
TransDigm exhibits solid operational earnings quality, converting operating profit into strong operating cash flow relative to GAAP net income. Non-GAAP EBITDA As Defined excludes non-cash stock compensation, acquisition integration expenses, and purchase accounting backlog amortization. GAAP earnings per share reflect dividend equivalent deductions tied to option plans, while recurring operating cash flow conversion remains structurally sound.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimate momentum has been positive following Q3 FY2026 earnings, with FY2027 consensus EPS rising from $47.01 to $48.63 and consensus revenue reaching $11,753,993,280, reflecting management's upwardly revised FY2026 guidance across revenue ($10.51B midpoint) and adjusted EPS ($41.04 midpoint).1,5
Operating cash flow reached $2,038M in FY2025 and free cash flow reached $1,816M, underpinned by modest capital expenditures of $222M on $8,831M in net sales (2.5% capex/revenue). For FY2026, management raised free cash flow expectations to approximately $2.6B on guided EBITDA As Defined of $5.52B, demonstrating strong cash conversion of operating earnings.5,6,7
Phân bổ vốn
TransDigm maintains a specialized strategy centered on debt-financed value compounding. Rather than paying regular quarterly dividends, the company accumulates cash and returns capital via opportunistic share repurchases ($1.0B in Q3 FY2026, $1.8B YTD at $1,208/share average price), periodic special dividends, and accretive M&A. In FY2026, TransDigm acquired Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra for $2.2B and announced Prince & Izant for $1.07B. This approach results in total debt of $33,485M and a stockholders' deficit of -$9,809M as of June 27, 2026.
TransDigm's asset-light manufacturing model generates substantial returns on tangible operating capital. While accounting equity is negative due to historical debt-financed capital distributions, operating profit of $4,165M on $8,831M revenue (47.16% operating margin) reflects unmatched economic profitability compared to peers like General Dynamics at 10.38%.
Estimated ROIC of ~17.8% substantially exceeds computed WACC of 7.74% and cost of equity of 9.10%, confirming significant economic spread.
TransDigm generated $4,165M in operating income in FY2025 and guided FY2026 EBITDA As Defined to $5,520M, covering net of $1,472M incurred in the first 39 weeks of FY2026.
Doanh thu mới nhất8,8 T US$CAGR doanh thu +12,2%
Biên hoạt động47,2%9 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,8 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng26,4 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu2,7 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,1 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp1,6 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−401 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,2 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−688 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng539 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
2.741.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.113.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
1.628.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
401.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.227.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-688.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
539.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản22,9 T US$Tiền mặt2,8 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn7 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả32,6 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,2 T US$Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu9,7 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
22.909.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
2.808.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
7.012.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
32.588.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.182.000.000 US$
Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu
9.679.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng2,1 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+367 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+152 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−555 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động2 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ6,3 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+2 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−595 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−4,9 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+4 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ2,8 T US$
2 T US$ − 222 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,8 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.074.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
2.593.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
367.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
152.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
2.038.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
555.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
8.303.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
6.261.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
4.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
595.000.000 US$
Capex
222.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
373.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
4.900.000.000 US$
Phát hành nợ ròng
5.073.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
500.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
159.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
9.314.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
2.808.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-595.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-4.900.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-09-30.
8,8 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Power And Control4,6 T US$51,6%+15% so với cùng kỳ
Airframe4,1 T US$46,6%+8% so với cùng kỳ
Non Aviation Related Business160 Tr US$1,8%−3% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-11-12 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Power And Control
4,6 T US$
51,6%
15%
Airframe
4,1 T US$
46,6%
8%
Non Aviation Related Business
160 Tr US$
1,8%
-3%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-09-30.
8,8 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States5,5 T US$62,7%+10% so với cùng kỳ
Non Us3,3 T US$37,3%+13,3% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-11-12 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
5,5 T US$
62,7%
10%
Non Us
3,3 T US$
37,3%
13,3%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-22.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-09-30
3,5 T US$
1,6 T US$
596,9 Tr US$
788,7 Tr US$
717,7 Tr US$
71 Tr US$
141 Tr US$
45,5 Tr US$
389,8 Tr US$
2,6 T US$
—
-287 Tr US$
-1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
651 Tr US$
650,6 Tr US$
11,5 T US$
42,3%
—
4,3%
—
2018-09-30
3,8 T US$
1,8 T US$
957 Tr US$
1 T US$
949 Tr US$
73 Tr US$
129 Tr US$
58,5 Tr US$
0 US$
56 Tr US$
—
-684 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
651 Tr US$
2,1 T US$
2,1 T US$
12,6 T US$
43,4%
—
5,6%
—
2019-09-30
5,2 T US$
2,2 T US$
890 Tr US$
1 T US$
913 Tr US$
102 Tr US$
226 Tr US$
93 Tr US$
0 US$
1,7 T US$
—
-3,9 T US$
2,3 T US$
2,1 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,5 T US$
16,5 T US$
36,9%
—
4,6%
—
2020-09-30
5,1 T US$
2,1 T US$
699 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,1 T US$
105 Tr US$
283 Tr US$
93 Tr US$
19 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
—
799 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,5 T US$
4,7 T US$
4,7 T US$
19,4 T US$
34,3%
—
6,1%
—
2021-09-30
4,8 T US$
2 T US$
680 Tr US$
913 Tr US$
808 Tr US$
105 Tr US$
253 Tr US$
129 Tr US$
0 US$
73 Tr US$
—
-785 Tr US$
-70 Tr US$
4,7 T US$
4,8 T US$
4,8 T US$
19,4 T US$
35,2%
—
7,3%
—
2022-09-30
5,4 T US$
2,5 T US$
866 Tr US$
948 Tr US$
829 Tr US$
119 Tr US$
253 Tr US$
153 Tr US$
912 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
-275 Tr US$
-553 Tr US$
-2,1 T US$
4,8 T US$
3 T US$
3,1 T US$
19,4 T US$
40,8%
—
8,0%
—
2023-09-30
6,6 T US$
3,1 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,2 T US$
139 Tr US$
268 Tr US$
135 Tr US$
0 US$
38 Tr US$
-173 Tr US$
-900 Tr US$
-16 Tr US$
3 T US$
3,5 T US$
3,6 T US$
19,3 T US$
44,4%
—
9,0%
—
2024-09-30
7,9 T US$
3,8 T US$
1,7 T US$
2 T US$
1,9 T US$
165 Tr US$
312 Tr US$
188 Tr US$
0 US$
2 T US$
5 T US$
-2,4 T US$
3,2 T US$
3,5 T US$
6,3 T US$
6,3 T US$
24,3 T US$
44,5%
—
8,6%
—
2025-09-30
8,8 T US$
4,6 T US$
2,1 T US$
2 T US$
1,8 T US$
222 Tr US$
367 Tr US$
152 Tr US$
500 Tr US$
159 Tr US$
5,1 T US$
-595 Tr US$
-4,9 T US$
6,3 T US$
2,8 T US$
2,8 T US$
29,2 T US$
47,2%
—
7,1%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
TransDigm Group IncorporatedTDG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý1.148,16 US$Report-date price1.113,01 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư71 / 100
Howmet Aerospace Inc.HWM
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý87,31 US$Report-date price232,48 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư71 / 100
L3Harris Technologies Inc.LHX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý228,61 US$Report-date price236,6 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư65 / 100
TransDigm Group IncorporatedTDG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý1.148,16 US$Report-date price1.113,01 US$
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) trades at 23.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 18.3x compares with a peer median of 16.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Howmet Aerospace Inc., L3Harris Technologies Inc., General Dynamics Corporation and RTX Corporation, as of 2026-10-22.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Aerospace industry capital intensity benchmarks show an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.80% and industry capex-to-depreciation of 0.95. TransDigm's FY2025 capex of $222M on $8,831M revenue (~2.5%) tracks below D&A of $367M, indicating asset-light manufacturing without large capacity expansion burdens. Broader capacity, supply, and lead-time data remain demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
In an upcycle, surging global passenger traffic drives airline fleet utilization and flight hours, accelerating wear-part replacement cycles. Concurrently, commercial OEMs Boeing and Airbus ramp aircraft build rates, expanding the operational installed base while global defense budgets rise.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In a downcycle, commercial airlines reduce flight hours, defer heavy maintenance checks, and destock component inventories. In defense, budgetary pressures or legislative pricing reforms could cap markups on sole-source spares. Coupled with elevated debt refinancing costs, cash flow compounding decelerates sharply.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Commercial Fleet Aging and Flight Hour Expansion
positive
Global passenger traffic growth and prolonged airline retention of older aircraft increase maintenance frequency, driving demand for TransDigm's proprietary replacement components.
Global Defense Modernization and Defense Outlays
positive
Elevated geopolitical tensions drive military readiness and replenishment cycles, supporting high-single to low-double-digit growth in TransDigm's defense order backlog.
Định vị
TransDigm is positioned at the top of the aerospace component value chain due to its proprietary IP and sole-source content across Power & Control ($4,559M) and Airframe ($4,112M). Its aftermarket revenue skew buffers it against OEM airframe delivery bottlenecks.8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
2-3%
Conviction is moderate. TransDigm's Wide competitive moat and pricing power are offset by full valuation at 23.09x forward P/E and an elevated $33.49B debt structure. Position sizing should remain balanced within equity portfolios.4
Rủi ro
Maintain position sizing at or below 2-3% of total equity portfolio value. Portfolio managers should account for TransDigm's levered beta of 0.94 and monitor debt refinancing schedules across the $33.49B debt load to prevent over-concentration in heavily leveraged industrial compounders.
At 23.09x forward P/E and an upside of 3.2% to central intrinsic value of $1,148.16, the stock offers insufficient margin of safety. Value investors should wait for pullbacks before initiating fresh positions.4
Growth Compounder Investor
Hold
TransDigm offers elite earnings compounding driven by sole-source proprietary components and raised FY2026 adjusted EPSguidance of $41.04. Existing positions should be maintained to capture ongoing cash flow reinvestment, but additional capital should await valuation pullbacks.5
Income / Total Return Investor
Avoid
TransDigm does not pay a regular recurring dividend, returning capital unpredictably via debt-financed special dividends and opportunistic share repurchases ($1.8B YTD), while carrying $33.49B in debt and a negative stockholders' deficit.4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giữ
We maintain a Hold rating on TransDigm Group Incorporated with a central Fair Value of $1,148.16, representing 3.2% upside relative to $1,113.01.4
While TransDigm commands an exceptional Wide competitive moat with industry-leading ~50% operating margins, current valuation multiples fully reflect near-term earnings compounding against an elevated $33.49B debt structure.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Refinancing rate shock across $33.5B debt structure inflates capital costs
Total debt of $33,485,000,704 requires continual refinancing; a 200 bps increase in benchmark debt refinancing yields increases computed WACC from 7.74% to over 9.74%, compressing enterprise and equity DCF values by an estimated 24%.2,4
Consensus FY2027 revenue is $11,753,993,280 compared to FY2025 revenue of $8,831M. If growth slows by 500 bps below the modeled 11.5% 5-year path to under 6.5% due to commercial fleet utilization cuts or airframe OEM delivery delays, outer-year cash flows drop sharply, resulting in an estimated 22.5% fair value impairment.1,7
FV impact
-6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Current forward P/E is 23.09x and modeled terminal P/E is 22.0x. A 20% valuation de-rating to 17.6x brings TDG into parity with aerospace peers GD (18.70x) and LHX (18.62x), reflecting elevated leverage and decelerating organic expansion, driving an estimated 18.5% fair value decline.3,4
A refinancing yield shock pushing computed WACC above 9.00% across the $33.49B debt structure would severely compress equity valuation multiples and increase cash interest expense.
Concentration above 15% would impair TransDigm's unilateral pricing power and increase vulnerability to tier-1 aerospace integrator or airline procurement negotiations.
Hiện tại:Under 10% for any single customer in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 15.0% for any single counterparty
Free cash flow falling below $2.0B annualized would threaten liquidity, debt service capacity across $33.49B of debt, and funds for capital return or M&A.
Cảnh báo nếuBelow $2.0B on an annualized run-rate basis
03
Platform Breadth and Customer Fragmentation — Revenue is balanced across Power & Control ($4,559M in FY2025) and Airframe ($4,112M in FY2025). No single customer accounted for 10% or more of net sales across fiscal 2023, 2024, or 2025, precluding counterparty bargaining leverage.
Airline adoption of PMA (Parts Manufacturer Approval) alternatives or repair schemes
medium
24 to 36 months
TransDigm actively acquires independent PMA developers (such as the $2.2B acquisition of Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra), incorporating alternative catalog solutions into its captive proprietary portfolio.
Commercial airframe OEM production delays and aerospace supply chain bottlenecks
low
6 to 18 months
TransDigm is predominantly an aftermarket supplier where airline flight-hour utilization drives demand, muting the direct earnings sensitivity to new airframe delivery delays.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (304 US$) plus discounted terminal value (1.200 US$) minus signed per current share (470 US$) equals the 1.034 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
The Base case represents the modal expected trajectory where TransDigm delivers 100-150 bps organic margin expansion on constant mix, absorbs acquisition dilution over 24 months, and compounds earnings in line with management guidance and post-earnings consensus estimates.1,5
Hiện tạiReported 52.8% in Q3 FY2026; full-year guidance raised to ~52.5%.
Vì sao quan trọng
Demonstrates TransDigm's ability to absorb acquisition dilution (>200 bps) through underlying pricing gains across base businesses.5
Hiện tạiFY2025 FCF was $1,816M; full-year FY2026 guided to approximately $2.6B.
Vì sao quan trọng
Underpins debt service capacity on $33.49B total debt, bolt-on M&A funding, and capital returns via share repurchases.4
04
Chỉ số:
Acquisition Integration and Synergy Execution
Hiện tạiCompleted acquisitions of Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra; announced acquisition of Prince & Izant to expand proprietary aftermarket positions.
Vì sao quan trọng
Tests the programmatic M&A engine's capacity to integrate acquisitions and elevate acquired EBITDA margins toward portfolio averages.
Management noted recent acquisitions diluted segment margins by >200 bps, yet base businesses delivered 100-150 bps organic margin expansion, keeping FY2026 EBITDA As Defined margin guidance at ~52.5%.
The TransDigm operating playbook reliably restores acquired business margins to portfolio averages over a 24- to 36-month horizon.
General Dynamics CorporationGD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý353,62 US$Report-date price346,46 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư69 / 100
RTX CorporationRTX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý222,19 US$Report-date price198,81 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Biên
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
$62.3B
23.1x
6.2x
18.3x
—
—
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$78.1B
30.1x
8.6x
31.2x
34.7%
28.5%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies Inc.
$46.8B
18.6x
2.0x
13.9x
9.3%
12.6%
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
$94.2B
18.7x
1.7x
14.8x
17.8%
10.4%
RTX
RTX Corporation
$259.2B
24.0x
2.7x
17.4x
12.8%
14.8%
Regulatory and Defense Procurement Oversight
negative
Scrutiny regarding sole-source pricing practices for Department of Defense spare parts introduces compliance scrutiny, though broad industry scope and proprietary IP limit immediate impact.
A market pullback below central $1,148.16 establishes an adequate margin of safety before adding incremental capital.
Substantial discount to central $1,148.16
High-conviction value entry
Provides a robust downside buffer against debt leverage and rate shocks, offering strong risk-adjusted returns for high-conviction allocation.
EBITDA As Defined margin dropping significantly below recent fiscal quarter levels
Review pricing power execution and acquisition integration progress.
