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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TDY — frequently asked questions
Is Teledyne Technologies Incorporated overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, TDY looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 621 USD versus our fair value of 461 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 536 USD. That implies roughly 25.8% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives TDY a fair value of 461 USD and a potential value of 536 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Teledyne Technologies Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TDY now?
Our latest published rating for TDY, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Sell. Teledyne Technologies Incorporated looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 621 USD versus fair value of 461 USD; potential value is 536 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TDY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Teledyne Technologies Incorporated's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TDY's rating?
Our latest published rating for TDY, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 461 USD, the potential value of 536 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (621 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$621.02
Giá trị hợp lý
$460.57
Giá trị tiềm năng
$535.73
Tính đến
2026-10-05
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerating NATO defense rearmament, surging counter-UAS procurement, and expanding sovereign European defense budgets propel organic revenue growth in Digital Imaging and Aerospace/Defense above 9.0%.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Digital Imaging operating margin drops below 15.0% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, triggered by expiration of temporary tariff relief and persistent softness in commercial industrial inspection spend.
We assign a Sell rating to Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY), establishing a synthesized fundamental fair value of $460.57 per share against the current market quote of $621.02. Although Teledyne demonstrates exceptional cash flow conversion ($1,074.0 million free cash flow in FY2025) and high-barrier positions across defense optics, the current share price reflects a 34.84% premium to intrinsic equity value, creating a negative implied return of -25.84% and an asymmetric downside skew.3,6
Teledyne Technologies commands durable competitive advantages rooted in proprietary sensor design, custom focal plane arrays, and entrenched OEM qualification across military avionics, counter-UAS platforms, and specialized industrial testing. Digital Imaging generated $3,163.9 million in FY2025 with operating profit of $528.2 million, while European defense optics expanded organically by 20% in Q2 2026 via Qioptiq. Furthermore, of $117.3 million represented only 1.92% of FY2025 , allowing the business to convert $894.8 million in into $1,074.0 million in .
Despite these operational attributes, fundamental valuation analysis indicates that current equity prices have detached from cash flow realities. At $621.02, TDY trades at 23.64x forward earnings, an elevated level compared to peer industrial technology compounders such as Roper Technologies at 14.53x and ON Semiconductor at 18.74x. This valuation embeds an implied 10-year EPS growth expectation of 11.61%, well above our evidence-supported projection of 8.33%. Our synthesized intrinsic equity value of $460.57 incorporates primary owner earnings power ($493.48) and forward earnings compounding ($474.76) discounted at an 8.7813% WACC and 9.0455% cost of equity.2,3,4
Operational vulnerabilities further heighten the downside risk. In Q2 2026, Digital Imaging margin expansion of 350 basis points year-over-year relied on a non-recurring $10.0 million tariff pickup (100 to 120 basis points), while commercial industrial inspection and healthcare X-ray detectors expanded at only low single digits. Concurrently, executive management noted persistent delivery bottlenecks across component payloads affecting over $1.0 billion in annual revenue run-rate. With the equity priced for uninterrupted execution, any supply disruption or normalization in defense procurement will likely trigger multiple contraction toward historical averages.5
Secular Growth in Counter-UAS and Defense Sensing Payloads
Expanding defense budgets and surging procurement of counter-UAS sensor payloads, surveillance radars, and FLIR thermal camera modules support management guidance of ~7.5% growth in Digital Imaging and over 9% in FLIR.5
Low capital requirements of 1.92% of revenue ($117.3 million CapEx in FY2025) drive exceptional cash conversion ($1,074.0 million FCF), enabling regular programmatic acquisitions of $1.0 billion or more without balance sheet stress.5,6,7
Sovereign European Defense Footprint via Qioptiq
European operations contributed $1,525.8 million in FY2025 (25.0% of revenue), with UK-based Qioptiq delivering 20% organic growth in Q2 2026 under accelerating sovereign NATO defense procurement.5,8
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Sell. Teledyne Technologies Incorporated is a high-quality compounder with commanding market share in specialized sensing, but its prevailing price of $621.02 reflects an unsustainable 34.84% premium to our fundamental fair value of $460.57. With forward earnings multiples elevated and over $1.0 billion in sales run-rate facing delivery constraints, capital is mispriced and should be reallocated.3,5
Tổng quan công ty
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated is a global provider of specialized instrumentation, digital imaging products and software, aerospace and defense electronics, and engineered systems designed for mission-critical sensing, monitoring, and communication environments.
The company operates through four principal business segments: Digital Imaging, which generated $3,163.9 million in FY2025 revenue (51.7% of total sales); Instrumentation, which delivered $1,457.1 million (23.8% of sales); Aerospace and Defense Electronics, contributing $1,058.7 million (17.3% of sales); and Engineered Systems, generating $435.7 million (7.1% of sales).
Geographically, Teledyne maintains balanced worldwide commercial and defense exposure: the United States accounts for $3,182.8 million (52.0% of FY2025 revenue), Europe accounts for $1,525.8 million (25.0% of sales), Asia represents $894.4 million (14.6% of sales), and other international regions contribute $512.4 million (8.4% of sales).
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In a severe compounding downturn, short-cycle commercial inspection and healthcare detector demand contract simultaneously while supply chain friction halts deliveries across $1.0 billion in critical sensor run-rate. Operating margins in Digital Imaging drop from 16.7% below 15.0%, exacerbated by the expiration of $10.0 million in quarterly tariff relief. Consolidated revenue growth stalls at 2.0% YoY, well below the guided >$6.53 billion target. Under this stress scenario, annual free cash flow declines toward $750 million, and multiple de-rating toward peer forward P/E levels of 17.0x-18.0x compresses equity value to $347.83 to $365.67, representing downside in excess of 40% from the October 5, 2026 share price of $621.02.
Revenue growth decelerates to 3.0%-3.5% as commercial inspection and healthcare X-ray detectors stagnate5
Supply chain component delivery friction impacts delivery schedules across $1.0B in revenue run-rate5
Digital Imaging operating margin compresses below 15.0% post-tariff expiration5
Terminal forward multiple compresses toward peer levels of 17.0x-18.0x4
A cyclical slowdown across commercial machine vision and test instrumentation coincides with payload delivery bottlenecks on long-lead defense contracts. Expiration of tariff relief and negative product mix dilute segment profitability, slowing free cash flow compounding and triggering multiple compression toward broader industrial peer averages.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Commercial Industrial Inspection Slump and Digital Imaging Tariff Reversal
Digital Imaging generates 51.7% of Teledyne's revenue ($3,163.9 million in FY2025). In Q2 2026, the segment benefited from a $10.0 million non-recurring net tariff pickup while short-cycle commercial inspection and healthcare X-ray detectors expanded at only low single digits. If commercial factory automation spend contracts and tariff relief expires, segment operating margins would fall below the 15.0% danger threshold from 16.7% reported in FY2025, pulling down consolidated operating profitability and driving an estimated -18.5% fair value impairment.5,8
FV impact
-1.8%
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Expiration of the $10.0 million net tariff pickup combined with persistent low-single-digit commercial inspection growth compresses Digital Imaging operating margins below 15.0%, directly eroding consolidated operating profitability.
Hiện tại:16.70% (FY2025) / Q2 2026 benefited from 120 bps net tariff pickup
Cảnh báo nếu<15.00%
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Teledyne's narrow economic moat is anchored by entrenched customer switching costs and proprietary intangible assets across mission-critical sensing and test instrumentation. The company's largest division, Digital Imaging, generated $3,163.9 million in FY2025 (51.7% of total revenues), supplying specialized infrared cameras, focal plane arrays, and machine vision systems. These products are deeply integrated into prime contractor defense architectures, aerospace airframes, and factory automation lines. Replacing a Teledyne sensor requires extensive engineering re-design, software re-configuration, and costly regulatory or military re-qualification, creating formidable inertia that insulates the installed base from direct replacement.
In specialized instrumentation ($1,457.1 million FY2025 revenue) and aerospace/defense electronics ($1,058.7 million revenue), Teledyne commands niche leadership in high-bandwidth oscilloscopes, protocol analyzers, and flight data acquisition units. Operating income in Instrumentation reached $400.4 million in FY2025, achieving a 27.5% operating margin, while Aerospace and Defense operating income was $262.1 million (24.8% margin). These units face limited direct socket competition from peers such as Keysight Technologies or Roper Technologies, preserving pricing power and stable operating returns.
The moat rating is constrained to Narrow (score of 7.5) because multi-decade programmatic acquisitions have accumulated $8.69 billion of balance-sheet goodwill, depressing GAAP ROIC to 7.47% relative to the 8.7813% cost of capital. While cash conversion is outstanding—operating cash flow was $1,191.3 million and free cash flow was $1,074.0 million in FY2025—the substantial capital base limits economic profit spreads. Furthermore, short-cycle exposure in commercial inspection and healthcare X-ray detectors and component delivery bottlenecks across $1.0 billion in revenue run-rate preclude a Wide moat designation.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Teledyne generated an accounting ROIC of 7.47% in FY2025, which sits slightly below its computed WACC of 8.7813% and moderate cost of equity of 9.0455%. This accounting optical drag is driven primarily by $8.69 billion of accumulated balance-sheet goodwill from programmatic acquisitions such as FLIR. In contrast, cash flow return on invested tangible capital is exceptionally strong, demonstrated by FY2025 free cash flow of $1,074.0 million on GAAP net income of $894.8 million (120% cash conversion).2,6
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01High Customer Switching Costs in Mission-Critical Systems — Teledyne's proprietary sensor designs, custom focal plane arrays, and deep OEM qualification in defense avionics, subsea interconnects, and oscilloscopes create severe customer switching friction. Specifying alternative sensors requires multi-year re-certification by military and industrial regulators.Wide
02Proprietary Intangible Assets and Specialized Sensor Intellectual Property — Uncooled and cooled infrared sensing architectures, protocol analyzers, and specialized defense optics through FLIR and Qioptiq provide specialized technological capabilities with high barriers to entry. These specialized sensor patents and manufacturing trade secrets protect high gross margin realizations.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Short-cycle commercial inspection and industrial factory automation cyclical downturn
medium
12-18 months
Diversified long-cycle defense surveillance, healthcare radiography, and sovereign defense contracts offset commercial volatility.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($460.57). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $934.9M after modeled reinvestment of $127.5M, with terminal value at 76.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Teledyne delivers consistent execution in line with management guidance and mature compounder characteristics. Digital Imaging expands at ~7.5% and Aerospace/Defense grows at 7.2%, while Instrumentation delivers 5.7% growth. Free cash flow conversion remains healthy around 100% of net income, but present intrinsic value of $460.57 sits well below market trading levels.5
Digital Imaging and Aerospace/Defense organic revenue growth exceeds 9.0%5
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine order book duration and backlog book-to-bill in Digital Imaging while evaluating whether multiple compression begins to close the valuation premium.
A quarterly beat driven by defense sensor deliveries would confirm strong end-market execution and justify lifting the house stance to Reduce, though current prices ($621.02) still trade at a substantial premium to intrinsic fair value ($460.57).
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Monitor component delivery lead times across the payload run-rate and verify operating cash conversion consistency.
Kích hoạt: Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $5.10 to $5.25 and non-GAAP EPS of $6.05 to $6.155
Meeting guidance affirms the baseline forecast of $6,536.4 million in FY2026 revenue and 19.35% operating margin. However, it leaves the stock trading at 23.64x forward earnings, far above peer levels and intrinsic fair value ($460.57). The house maintains the rating.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Accelerate liquidation of remaining positions, test whether Digital Imaging margins breached the danger threshold, and assess broader industrial de-rating risks.
A miss would signal that component payload delivery friction or commercial inspection slowdown is depressing segment operating margins below expectations. Given the severe valuation stretch, an earnings shortfall would likely trigger immediate multiple de-rating. The house maintains the rating.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Teledyne exhibits high cash earnings quality, reflected in FY2025 operating cash flow of $1,191.3 million and free cash flow of $1,074.0 million, translating to an exceptional 120% cash conversion of GAAP net income ($894.8 million). Stock-based compensation is modest ($13.9 million in Q2 2026), representing less than 1.0% of revenues. However, earnings quality in recent periods includes temporary components: Q2 2026 Digital Imaging margins were aided by a $10.0 million net tariff pickup (contributing 100-120 bps), and product mix shifts toward lower-margin marine and subsea systems create subtle margin dilution.5,6,7
Xu hướng dự báo
Post-earnings consensus estimates have held completely flat between September 28, 2026, and October 5, 2026. FY2026 diluted EPS consensus sits unchanged at $24.73, FY2027 diluted EPS remains at $26.77, and consensus revenues for FY2026 and FY2027 remain steady at $6,557.4 million and $6,924.2 million, respectively. This stability reflects management's upward guidance revision in Q2 2026 (raising full-year sales by $120 million to over $6.53 billion and non-GAAP EPS by $0.55), which analysts have now fully absorbed into static forecast models.1,5
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Digital Imaging Organic Revenue Growth and Segment Margin
Hiện tạiGuided at ~7.5% for FY2026 with FLIR >9%; Q2 margin expanded 350 bps YoY.
Vì sao quan trọng
Digital Imaging drives 51.7% of revenue ($3,163.9M in FY2025); any deceleration directly impacts consolidated cash generation.8
Cash flow generation represents Teledyne's primary operational strength. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,191.3 million and capital expenditures were $117.3 million, producing free cash flow of $1,074.0 million. Free cash flow conversion stood at an exceptional 120.0% of GAAP net income ($894.8 million), driven by working capital efficiency and non-cash depreciation of $336.3 million. This performance continued into Q2 2026, with operating cash flow of $315.2 million and free cash flow of $284.7 million. Sustained free cash flow conversion well over 100% of net income provides dependable self-funding liquidity for ongoing debt reduction and strategic M&A.5,6,7
Accounting ROIC sits slightly below the cost of capital due to large unamortized goodwill from past transactions, but cash return on tangible capital is robust. As operating income expands toward $1,597.4 million by FY2030 on modest capital reinvestment (12-15% of NOPAT), economic profit creation will steadily improve.
FY2025 accounting ROIC of 7.47% trails the computed WACC of 8.7813% and moderate Ke of 9.0455% by approximately 131 basis points. This spread is an artifact of $8.69 billion in accumulated goodwill; excluding intangible assets, tangible invested capital yields returns well above 20%.
Doanh thu mới nhất6,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +12,3%
Biên hoạt động18,8%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,1 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng2,1 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu6,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−3,7 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp2,4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−1,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,1 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−255 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng894,8 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
6.115.400.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
3.717.200.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
2.398.200.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
1.248.400.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.149.800.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-255.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
894.800.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản15,3 T US$Tiền mặt352,4 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn3,1 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả4,8 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn1,9 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu10,5 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
15.285.300.000 US$
Tiền mặt
352.400.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
3.055.600.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
4.771.400.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
1.860.100.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
10.513.900.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng894,8 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+336,3 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+39,6 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−79,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1,2 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ649,8 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1,2 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−937,9 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−555,2 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+4,4 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ352,4 Tr US$
1,2 T US$ − 117,3 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,1 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
894.800.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
1.270.700.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
336.300.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
39.600.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.191.300.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
79.400.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.845.500.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
649.800.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
4.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
937.900.000 US$
Capex
117.300.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
820.600.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
555.200.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
352.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-937.900.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-555.200.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-28.
6,1 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Digital Imaging3,2 T US$51,7%+3% so với cùng kỳ
Instrumentation1,5 T US$23,8%+5,4% so với cùng kỳ
Aerospace And Defense Electronics1,1 T US$17,3%+36,3% so với cùng kỳ
Engineered Systems435,7 Tr US$7,1%−0,9% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-20 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Digital Imaging
3,2 T US$
51,7%
3%
Instrumentation
1,5 T US$
23,8%
5,4%
Aerospace And Defense Electronics
1,1 T US$
17,3%
36,3%
Engineered Systems
435,7 Tr US$
7,1%
-0,9%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-28.
6,1 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States3,2 T US$52%+8,3% so với cùng kỳ
Europe1,5 T US$25%+12,6% so với cùng kỳ
Asia894,4 Tr US$14,6%−0,4% so với cùng kỳ
Countries Other Than United States Europe And Asia512,4 Tr US$8,4%+7,1% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-20 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
3,2 T US$
52%
8,3%
Europe
1,5 T US$
25%
12,6%
Asia
894,4 Tr US$
14,6%
-0,4%
Countries Other Than United States Europe And Asia
512,4 Tr US$
8,4%
7,1%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-05.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-01-01
2,1 T US$
351,8 Tr US$
190,9 Tr US$
317 Tr US$
229,4 Tr US$
87,6 Tr US$
87,3 Tr US$
11,6 Tr US$
0 US$
0 US$
—
-151 Tr US$
-145 Tr US$
—
98,6 Tr US$
98,6 Tr US$
509,7 Tr US$
11,2%
—
6,2%
—
2017-12-31
2,6 T US$
433,1 Tr US$
227,2 Tr US$
374,7 Tr US$
316,2 Tr US$
58,5 Tr US$
113 Tr US$
18,8 Tr US$
0 US$
0 US$
—
-831,2 Tr US$
414,1 Tr US$
98,6 Tr US$
70,9 Tr US$
70,9 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
12,4%
—
5,9%
—
2018-12-30
2,9 T US$
532,4 Tr US$
333,8 Tr US$
446,9 Tr US$
360,1 Tr US$
86,8 Tr US$
113 Tr US$
25,1 Tr US$
—
—
—
-88,6 Tr US$
-271,3 Tr US$
70,9 Tr US$
142,5 Tr US$
142,5 Tr US$
747,5 Tr US$
14,4%
—
6,8%
—
2019-12-29
3,2 T US$
606,6 Tr US$
402,3 Tr US$
482,1 Tr US$
393,7 Tr US$
88,4 Tr US$
111,9 Tr US$
30,7 Tr US$
—
—
—
-571,9 Tr US$
141,7 Tr US$
142,5 Tr US$
199,5 Tr US$
199,7 Tr US$
850,6 Tr US$
15,5%
—
6,1%
—
2021-01-03
3,1 T US$
601,2 Tr US$
401,9 Tr US$
618,9 Tr US$
547,5 Tr US$
71,4 Tr US$
116,2 Tr US$
30 Tr US$
—
—
—
-99,4 Tr US$
-61,8 Tr US$
199,5 Tr US$
673,1 Tr US$
673,1 Tr US$
778,5 Tr US$
15,6%
—
5,1%
—
2022-01-02
4,6 T US$
996,4 Tr US$
445,3 Tr US$
824,6 Tr US$
723 Tr US$
101,6 Tr US$
371,8 Tr US$
33,9 Tr US$
—
—
—
-3,8 T US$
2,8 T US$
673,1 Tr US$
474,7 Tr US$
474,7 Tr US$
4,1 T US$
13,5%
—
5,0%
—
2023-01-01
5,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
788,6 Tr US$
486,8 Tr US$
394,2 Tr US$
92,6 Tr US$
332,2 Tr US$
31,5 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-174,8 Tr US$
-175,4 Tr US$
-110 Tr US$
474,7 Tr US$
638,1 Tr US$
638,8 Tr US$
3,9 T US$
17,8%
—
7,3%
—
2023-12-31
5,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
885,7 Tr US$
836,1 Tr US$
721,2 Tr US$
114,9 Tr US$
316,4 Tr US$
32,3 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-678,9 Tr US$
-190,3 Tr US$
-651,5 Tr US$
638,1 Tr US$
648,3 Tr US$
648,3 Tr US$
3,2 T US$
18,4%
—
7,3%
—
2024-12-29
5,7 T US$
1,3 T US$
819,2 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,1 T US$
83,7 Tr US$
309,9 Tr US$
37,7 Tr US$
354 Tr US$
—
-600,6 Tr US$
-207,2 Tr US$
-945,8 Tr US$
648,3 Tr US$
649,8 Tr US$
649,8 Tr US$
2,6 T US$
17,4%
—
8,0%
—
2025-12-28
6,1 T US$
1,5 T US$
894,8 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,1 T US$
117,3 Tr US$
336,3 Tr US$
39,6 Tr US$
402,9 Tr US$
—
-163,8 Tr US$
-937,9 Tr US$
-555,2 Tr US$
649,8 Tr US$
352,4 Tr US$
352,4 Tr US$
2,5 T US$
18,8%
—
7,6%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Teledyne Technologies IncorporatedTDY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý460,57 US$Report-date price621,02 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Keysight Technologies Inc.KEYS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý215,39 US$Report-date price386,43 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
Garmin Ltd.GRMN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý192,38 US$Report-date price281,08 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
Teledyne Technologies IncorporatedTDY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý460,57 US$Report-date price621,02 US$
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) trades at 23.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 19.0x compares with a peer median of 19.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Keysight Technologies Inc., Garmin Ltd., ON Semiconductor Corporation and Roper Technologies Inc., as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Industry capital expenditure benchmarks reflect an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 5.7% and capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.41. In contrast, Teledyne's FY2025 capex of $117.3 million represented only 1.92% of revenue ($6,115.4 million), with capex-to-depreciation at 0.35x ($336.3 million depreciation). Management is expanding FY2026 CapEx by approximately 30% to alleviate manufacturing payload constraints.5,7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Accelerating NATO defense modernization, rising sovereign European security budgets, and urgent demand for counter-UAS payloads, infrared camera modules, and radar sensors propel long-cycle defense demand. In a full bull cycle, FLIR revenue expands at double-digit rates, European defense optics compound at 20%, and factory volume leverage expands consolidated operating margins toward 20.5%, generating over $1.2 billion in annual free cash flow.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A downturn in commercial industrial inspection and semiconductor test spend, accompanied by prolonged healthcare X-ray detector stagnation, would compress volume leverage in Digital Imaging foundries. When combined with component delivery bottlenecks across $1.0 billion in critical run-rate, consolidated revenue growth could fall below 2.0% YoY, capping operating margins at 18.9% and exposing the equity to severe multiple compression.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Global Defense Rearmament and Autonomous Warfare Sensing
positive
Rising sovereign defense spending across NATO, counter-UAS sensor integration, and infrared surveillance drive sustained demand for FLIR and Qioptiq optics.
Industrial Automation and Machine Vision Inspection
neutral
While long-term factory automation remains a structural driver, near-term short-cycle commercial inspection and healthcare X-ray detectors face low-single-digit demand growth.
Định vị
Teledyne is positioned as a diversified mature compounder across specialized sensing, instrumentation, and defense electronics. In FY2025, Digital Imaging contributed $3,163.9 million (51.7% of sales), Instrumentation delivered $1,457.1 million (23.8% of sales), Aerospace and Defense Electronics generated $1,058.7 million (17.3% of sales), and Engineered Systems accounted for $435.7 million (7.1% of sales). Geographically, the United States represents $3,182.8 million (52.0%), Europe accounts for $1,525.8 million (25.0%), and Asia provides $894.4 million (14.6%). This multi-segment structure buffers commercial cyclicality through long-cycle defense and aerospace programs.8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
At $621.02, Teledyne trades at a 34.8% premium to its intrinsic fair value midpoint of $460.57, representing an implied return of -25.84%. Trading at 23.64x forward earnings compared to peer compounders ON Semi at 18.74x and Roper at 14.53x, the risk-reward profile offers no margin of safety. Consequently, the house assigns a Sell rating and recommends complete divestment or zero portfolio allocation.3,4
Rủi ro
Under a Sell recommendation, risk management centers on eliminating downside exposure to extreme valuation multiple contraction. Teledyne trades at a forward P/E of 23.64x, an elevated level relative to peers ON Semiconductor (18.74x) and Roper (14.53x). Investors holding legacy shares should systematically harvest gains and reallocate capital toward assets offering an adequate margin of safety relative to intrinsic cash flow generation ($1,074.0M FY2025 FCF). Monitor quarterly book-to-bill ratios and payload delivery updates on the $1.0B constrained revenue run-rate.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$460.57 (House Fair Value Midpoint)
Re-underwrite baseline economics and monitor valuation discount
At the fair value midpoint of $460.57, the 34.8% market premium would be eliminated. Re-evaluate operating margin sustainability and payload delivery metrics before considering capital deployment.
Evaluate risk-reward for potential initiating entry
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$621.02 (October 5, 2026 Share Price)
Execute immediate exit or systematic liquidation of remaining long positions
$650.00 - $675.00 (Momentum Rebound Resistance)
Fully exit any residual holdings into liquidity on near-term upward momentum
At $621.02, the stock trades at an implied -25.84% return relative to our fundamental fair value of $460.57. Value investors should avoid entering positions due to an entirely absent margin of safety against our 8.7813% WACC hurdle.2,3
Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) Investors
Avoid
With five-year revenue CAGR projected at 5.46% and EPS growth tapering toward 6.50% in FY2030, a 23.64x forward multiple yields an elevated PEG ratio of 1.97 against peer median PEG of 1.39, rendering risk-reward unattractive for growth-oriented strategies.3
Income and Total Return Investors
Avoid
Teledyne pays no dividend, dedicating all free cash flow ($1,074.0 million in FY2025) to programmatic acquisitions and repurchases. With zero current income yield and negative capital return expectations, total return mandates should avoid the name.5,6
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
We issue a Sell recommendation on Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY). At $621.02 per share, TDY trades at a 34.84% premium to our synthesized intrinsic fair value of $460.57, representing an expected return of -25.84%. While the company's operating franchise and cash conversion remain robust, prevailing prices price in flawless execution and expose investors to substantial multiple de-rating.3
Teledyne's current forward earnings multiple of 23.64x significantly exceeds peer compounders like Roper Technologies at 14.53x and ON Semiconductor at 18.74x. With component supply friction impacting over $1.0 billion of annual revenue run-rate, capital should be reallocated to preserve principal and capture superior risk-adjusted return profiles.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-05 · Published 2026-10-05 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Cây quyết định lợi nhuận
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Severe Supply Chain Payload Disruption on Long-Lead Defense Deliveries
Management highlighted that over $1.0 billion of annual revenue run-rate depends on constrained component payloads and supplier availability. If component delivery friction worsens, organic growth across Digital Imaging and Aerospace/Defense ($1,058.7 million in FY2025 revenue) would stall below 2.0% YoY, failing to reach the guided $6.53 billion target and resulting in an estimated -23.4% fair value impact.5,8
FV impact
-3.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Macro Multiple De-rating and Cyclical Peak Valuation Compression
Teledyne trades at a forward P/E of 23.64x, while peers ON Semiconductor and Roper trade at 18.74x and 14.53x. In an environment of elevated capital costs with a normalized cycle Ke of 9.262%, terminal multiple compression toward 17.0x-18.0x would reduce equity fair value by 20.0%.2,3,4
Delivery bottlenecks on over $1.0 billion of revenue run-rate reliant on constrained payload components cause consolidated revenue growth to miss the guided >$6.53 billion baseline and fall below 2.0% YoY.
Hiện tại:6.88% (FY2026 forecast) / guided just under 7%
Multiple de-rating towards peer levels (ON Semi at 18.74x, Roper at 14.53x) triggered by elevated cost of capital (9.262% normalized Ke) and industrial cycle fatigue.
Deceleration or contraction in European defense optics shipments following potential budgetary delays or trade restrictions on international sales ($1,525.8 million in FY2025), breaching the zero-growth falsification boundary.
Dilution from lower-margin marine and autonomous underwater vehicles or inflation in component inputs driving consolidated operating margin below 16.50%, breaching the competitive moat pricing-power falsifier.
Hiện tại:18.80% (FY2025) / 19.35% (FY2026 forecast)
Specialized component payload shortages and supply chain delivery delays
low
6-12 months
Management is expanding FY2026 CapEx by approximately 30% off the $117.3 million FY2025 baseline to expand internal production capacity and build buffer inventory.5,7
International trade frictions and reversal of tariff ruling benefits
medium
12-24 months
Localized European production presence through Qioptiq in the UK and European facilities allows Teledyne to serve NATO procurement directly without US-only export frictions.5,8
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (85,25 US$) plus discounted terminal value (277 US$) minus signed per current share (45,82 US$) equals the 317 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Europe generates 25.0% of consolidated sales ($1,525.8M in FY2025); sovereign European defense spending provides key geographic growth diversification.8
04
Chỉ số:
Durability of Digital Imaging Margin Expansion Post-Tariff Benefit
Hiện tạiCore operational margin expansion exceeded 200 bps year-over-year in Q2 2026 excluding tariffs; full-year margin guided up 56 bps.
Vì sao quan trọng
Digital Imaging margins benefited from a $10.0M net tariff pickup in Q2 2026 (100-120 bps) that will not recur indefinitely.5
05
Chỉ số:
Programmatic M&A Pipeline and Capital Deployment
Hiện tạiActive evaluation underway while exercising price discipline against inflated private asset valuations; cash balance of $352.4M and total debt of $2,027.0M.
Vì sao quan trọng
M&A compounding is core to the mature compounder archetype; management has deployed over $1.0B in recent years and evaluates targets up to $1.0B+.5
Teledyne executes a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on programmatic M&A, modest internal reinvestment, and balance-sheet deleveraging. In the past two years, the company deployed over $1.0 billion in acquisitions and currently evaluates targets up to $1.0 billion or larger while maintaining rigorous valuation discipline. Total debt stands at $2,027.0 million with cash of $352.4 million, yielding a modest debt weight of 6.58%. The company does not pay dividends, directing all free cash flow toward debt reduction, strategic acquisitions, and high-return sensor production investments (guided 30% FY2026 CapEx increase).
Operating cash flow of $1,191.3 million and free cash flow of $1,074.0 million significantly outpaced FY2025 GAAP net income of $894.8 million, sustained in Q2 2026 with $284.7 million FCF.
Generates over $1.0 billion in annual discretionary liquidity, enabling rapid debt paydown and self-funded programmatic M&A without equity dilution.
Consolidated operating margin was 18.80% in FY2025 ($1,149.8M EBIT on $6,115.4M revenue), with management guiding to 56 bps of expansion in 2026 reaching 19.35% in FY2026 and 20.03% by FY2030.
Demonstrates resilient pricing power across specialized sensing niches, mitigating cost inflation and lower-margin commercial product mix.
Asset-Light Operations Contrast with Industry Reinvestment Intensity
Teledyne reinvested only 1.92% of sales in CapEx ($117.3 million) in FY2025, compared to the broader industry average CapEx-to-revenue ratio of 5.7%.
High capital efficiency insulates free cash flow from fixed asset drag, though guided 30% CapEx growth in FY2026 is necessary to alleviate payload capacity constraints.
ON Semiconductor CorporationON
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý46,4 US$Report-date price76,94 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
Roper Technologies, Inc.ROP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý410,13 US$Report-date price354,32 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư66 / 100
Biên
TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
$28.8B
23.6x
4.5x
19.0x
9.2%
—
KEYS
Keysight Technologies Inc.
$65.4B
27.7x
9.9x
38.7x
20.9%
25.7%
GRMN
Garmin Ltd.
$54.2B
25.5x
7.1x
22.4x
21.9%
30.4%
ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation
$33.0B
18.7x
5.3x
16.2x
8.3%
19.5%
ROP
Roper Technologies Inc.
$35.0B
14.5x
4.2x
14.2x
13.1%
27.7%
Aerospace Electronics Modernization and Avionics Upgrade Cycles
positive
Commercial aviation fleet renewals and defense avionics upgrades support 7.2% guided revenue growth in Aerospace and Defense Electronics and test instrumentation demand.
