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AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend. Fair value range: low $153, high $255, with mid-point at $204.
Stock analysis

ABBV fair value $153–$255

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-08下次更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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股价
$202.71
▲ +0.96 (+0.47%)
公允价值
$204
$153–$255
评级
持有
confidence 88/100
上行空间
+0.5%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$173.12
MoS level · 15%
市值
$358.5B
P/E fwd 12.5
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Strong immunology execution offsetting Humira cliff.
  • GAAP EPS vastly understates $13B+ FCF capacity.
  • Fairly valued at current levels; maintain position.
Fair value
$204
Margin of safety
+0.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$202.71Price
Low $152.59
Mid $203.67
High $254.75

AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend.

  • Intellectual property and robust pipeline
    Intellectual property and robust pipeline in immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
  • Scale and distribution networks globally
    Scale and distribution networks globally.
  • Cycle upside
    Aging population and increasing prevalence of autoimmune diseases drive secular volume growth. Innovation in targeted therapies commands premium pricing.

§2 看空情景

A severe margin contraction driven by pricing reform and aggressive biosimilar uptake stresses FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics.. Debt load from Allergan acquisition amplifies equity risk, constraining dividend growth and leading to a structural multiple de-rating.

该论点可能失败的方式

Accelerated Humira Erosion

· Medium

Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.

FV impact
-15%

Skyrizi/Rinvoq Disappointment

· Low

Key immunology assets fail to reach peak sales targets or face unexpected safety concerns.

FV impact
-20%

Pricing Regulation

· High

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces pricing power across the pharmaceutical portfolio.

FV impact
-10%
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Humira revenue decline exceeding 35% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq sales missing internal valuation cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting below 68%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 2.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% of FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期

项目2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$58.05B$54.32B-6.4%$56.33B+3.7%$61.16B+8.6%+1.8%
毛利$40.64B$33.90B$39.43B$42.96B+1.9%
营业利润$18.81B$13.54B$11.89B$20.09B+2.2%
净利润$11.84B$4.86B-59.0%$4.28B-11.9%$4.23B-1.2%-29.1%
每股收益(摊薄)$6.63$2.72$2.39$2.36-29.1%
EBITDA$24.17B$17.17B$14.91B$17.63B-10.0%
研发$6.51B$7.68B$12.79B$9.10B+11.8%
销售管理费用$15.26B$12.87B$14.75B$14.01B-2.8%

质量评分

Piotroski F 评分
5 / 9
0–9 质量综合
OCF / 净利润
4.5×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Pass
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
11.7%
投入资本回报率
个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

ABBV reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for ABBV (ABBV) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.
FAQ

ABBV — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABBV trades close to fair value. The current price is $203 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $204 (range $153–$255), which implies roughly 0.5% upside to the midpoint.
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