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GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $55.4, high $82.4, with mid-point at $68.5.
Stock analysis

GLW fair value $55–$82

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-09下次更新: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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股价
$186.94
▼ -118.39 (-63.33%)
公允价值
$69
$55–$82
评级
卖出
confidence 88/100
上行空间
-63.3%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$58.27
MoS level · 15%
市值
$160.9B
P/E fwd 44.4
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $69 with high case $82.
  • Implied downside of 63.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$69
Margin of safety
-172.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$186.94Price
Low $55.37
Mid $68.55
High $82.37

GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible assets in proprietary glass
    Intangible assets in proprietary glass formulations and materials science.
  • Switching costs in display and
    Switching costs in display and specialty electronics materials.
  • Bull thesis
    Near-term internal valuation cross-checks growth is strong, but insufficient to offset the monumental valuation premium.

§2 看空情景

A synchronized global recession severely curtails consumer electronics spending and delays 5G/broadband infrastructure rollouts. High fixed costs result in significant margin compression.

该论点可能失败的方式

Prolonged Telco Winter

· Medium

Carriers permanently reduce fiber capex due to shifting to wireless last-mile or structural funding issues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

Display Price War

· Medium

Asian competitors flood the market with heavily subsidized glass, collapsing LCD/OLED substrate pricing.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Disruptive Material Substitution

· Low

A new, cheaper composite replaces specialty glass in consumer devices, breaking Corning's monopoly.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
5+ Years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Three consecutive quarters of declining optical fiber volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Display glass price declines exceeding high single-digits annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 30% for a full fiscal year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to sales ratio climbing above 12% without corresponding revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% on normalized FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期

项目2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$14.19B$12.59B-11.3%$13.12B+4.2%$15.63B+19.1%+2.4%
毛利$4.51B$3.93B$4.28B$5.62B+5.7%
营业利润$1.44B$890.0M$1.14B$2.28B+12.2%
净利润$1.32B$581.0M-56.0%$506.0M-12.9%$1.60B+216.2%+4.9%
每股收益(摊薄)$1.28$1.54$0.68$0.58$1.83+9.3%
EBITDA$3.54B$2.51B$2.49B$3.74B+1.3%
研发$1.05B$1.08B$1.09B$1.11B+1.5%
销售管理费用$1.90B$1.84B$1.93B$2.12B+2.8%

质量评分

Piotroski F 评分
7 / 9
0–9 质量综合
Altman Z 评分
6.81
破产风险 (>3 安全)
Beneish M 评分
-2.37
盈利操纵风险
OCF / 净利润
1.69×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Pass
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
8.9%
投入资本回报率
个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

GLW balance sheet questions

  1. GLW (GLW)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.
FAQ

GLW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GLW looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $187 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $68.5 (range $55.4–$82.4), which implies roughly 63.3% downside to the midpoint.
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