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MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)

NASDAQ: MDB · Real-Time Price · USD
$299
+6.04 (+2.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: MDB rated Hold

MDB is rated Hold at $299.47 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $275.44, implying -8.02% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.

Fair value (mid)
$275 / share
$193 – $377
Upside to FV
-8.0%
from $299
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: Atlas growth accelerates as AI drives demand for unstructured data storage. Operating leverage materializes rapidly, pushing MDB toward 25%+ operating margins and justifying a premium valuation.

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Hyperscaler Commoditization

Hyperscaler Commoditization: AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

Recommended actionConviction: high
Hold

MDB is rated Hold at $299.47 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $275.44, implying -8.02% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$24.1B
Revenue (ttm)2.5B
Net income (ttm)-71.2M
EPS (ttm)$-0.88
Shares out80.4M
P/E (forward)42.5x
Volume1,812,920
Beta1.49
Price target$369+23.1%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

MongoDB, Inc.MDB
—
Loading chart…

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
2.5B
Net income (ttm)
-71.2M
EPS (ttm)
$-0.88
P/E (forward)
42.5x
Market cap
$24.1B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: -8.0% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$376.50
+25.7% from spot

Atlas growth accelerates as AI drives demand for unstructured data storage. Operating leverage materializes rapidly, pushing MDB toward 25%+ operating margins and justifying a premium valuation.

  • Revenue growth >20%
  • Terminal multiple >10x
Base45%
Price target
$275.44
-8.0% from spot

MDB continues market share gains but faces structural margin caps. Valuation anchored on projected revenue expansion but bounded by archetype-calibrated 8x exit multiples.

  • Terminal EV/Rev of 8x
  • Operating margins hit 25%
Bear30%
Price target
$192.74
-35.6% from spot

Hyperscaler alternatives compress pricing power. Margin expansion stalls due to required investments, and high SBC severely dilutes returns, driving multiple compression.

  • Hyperscaler pricing pressure
  • Terminal multiple <5x

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $275.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
Ev revenue85%$305+1.7%
Peg adjusted peer15%$111-63.1%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
FCFF DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Owner earnings0%$0.00-100.0%
Ddm0%$0.00-100.0%
Discounted earnings0%$0.00-100.0%
Forward earnings0%$0.00-100.0%
Multi stage moat fade0%$0.00-100.0%
Residual income0%$0.00-100.0%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$275-8.0%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
11.0%$306$324$344$368$394
12.0%$275$290$306$324$344
13.0%$250$262$275$290$306
14.0%$229$239$250$262$275
15.0%$212$220$229$239$250

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation3.0
Management6.7
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment8.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.2/10
Mixed
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%3.0
Management11%6.7
Balance Sheet11%8.5
Profitability11%1.5
Revenue Growth11%7.5
Risk Assessment11%8.0
Competitive Moat11%6.5
Earnings Quality11%3.0
Capital Efficiency11%2.5

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 77/100
Target weight
Underweight. The premium to our $275.44 fair value creates an unfavorable risk/reward skew.
of equity sleeve
Wait for multiple compression closer to $200 before initiating.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$299
Trim on strength above internal valuation cross-checks ($347) where EV/Revenue multiples detach from bounds.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Trim on strength above internal valuation cross-checks ($347) where EV/Revenue multiples detach from bounds.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E42.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-2.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-2.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All MDB indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
229
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 229 of 229 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

25
MetricValue
Cik
0001441816
Company name
MongoDB, Inc.
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
60937P106
Employees
5,636
Employees Change
78%
Employees Change Percent
1.4
Enterprise value
$21.7B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
IPO Date
2017-10-19
Isin
US60937P1066
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$24.1B
Market cap category
Large-Cap
Price
$299
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
437,153.48x
Sector
Technology
Sic
7372
Symbol
MDB
Website
https://www.mongodb.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

10
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
-0.3%
EV Sales Forward
7.39x
EV/FCF
43.47x
EV/Sales
8.83x
FCF yield
2.08%
Forward P/E
51.26x
P/B ratio
8.16x
P/S ratio
9.77x
PEG ratio
4.39x
PS Forward
8.18x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

21
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
-5.5%
EBITDA Margin
-4.43%
FCF margin
20.3%
Gross margin
71.75%
Gross Profit
$1.8B
Gross Profit Growth
20.16%
Gross Profit Growth Q
27.11%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y
23.66%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y
33.73%
Net Income
$-71.2M
Net Income Growth Q
-1.87%
Net Income Growth Years
3%
Pretax Margin
-2.26%
Profit Margin
-2.89%
Profit Per Employee
$-12,624
ROA
-2.36
Roa5y
-5.99
ROCE
-4.39
ROE
-2.48
Roe5y
-34.12
ROIC
-2.88

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

15
MetricValue
Cagr1y
71.85%
Cagr3y
7.46%
Cagr5y
2.84%
EPS Growth Q
2.17
EPS Growth Years
3
FCF Growth
314.61%
FCF Growth Q
626.7%
OCF Growth
236.34%
OCF Growth Q
255.38%
Revenue Growth
22.79x
Revenue Growth Q
26.75x
Revenue Growth Quarters
34x
Revenue Growth Years
10x
Revenue Growth3 Y
24.26x
Revenue Growth5 Y
33.07x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

21
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.69
Assets
$3.8B
Cash
$2.4B
Current Assets
$3.1B
Current Liabilities
$669.5M
Debt
$62.8M
Debt Equity
$0.02
Debt FCF
$0.13
Equity
$3B
Interest Coverage
-43.31
Liabilities
$806.5M
Long Term Assets
$644M
Long Term Liabilities
$137M
Net Cash
$2.3B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$9.66
Net Cash Growth
2.73%
Net Debt Equity
$-0.79
Net Debt FCF
$-4.65
Tangible Book Value
$2.7B
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$33.87
WACC
12.4

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

5
MetricValue
Current ratio
4.65
Net Working Capital
$73.9M
Quick ratio
4.31
Working Capital
$2.4B
Working Capital Turnover
$1.03

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

2
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
-8.98%
Dividend Yield
0%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

40
MetricValue
1Y total return
71.78%
200-day SMA
318.4
3Y total return
24.11%
50-day SMA
260.6
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50under200
5Y total return
15.04%
All Time High
590
All Time High Change
-49.24%
All Time High Date
2021-11-17
All Time Low
24.62
All Time Low Change
1,116.37%
All Time Low Date
2017-12-11
ATR
16.1
Beta
1.49
Beta1y
1.69
Beta2y
1.77
Ch YTD
-28.64
High
301.2
High52
444.7
High52 Date
2026-01-07
High52ch
-32.66%
Low
282.1
Low52
175.3
Low52 Date
2025-05-08
Low52ch
70.88%
Ma50ch
14.92%
Premarket Change Percent
-1.23
Premarket Price
$290
Premarket Volume
12,007
Price vs 200-day SMA
-5.94%
RSI
67.24
RSI Monthly
50.39
RSI Weekly
48.94
Sharpe ratio
1.06x
Sortino ratio
1.95
Total Return
-8.98%
Tr YTD
-28.64
Tr1m
17.86%
Tr1w
13.67%
Tr3m
-13.03%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

14
MetricValue
Analyst Count
34
Analyst Count Top
9
Analyst Price Target Top
$339
Analyst Ratings
Buy
Analyst Ratings Top
Buy
Earnings EPS Estimate
$0.89
Earnings EPS Estimate Growth
-11
Earnings Revenue Estimate
663,425,208x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
20.84x
Operating Income
$-135.5M
Operating margin
-5.5
Price target
$369
Price Target Change
$23.11
Price Target Change Top
$13.16

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
78,027,526%
Float Percent
97.09%
Net Borrowing
-7,539,000
Shares Insiders
2.82%
Shares Institutions
95.39%
Shares Out
80,369,527
Shares Qo Q
-0.19%
Shares Yo Y
8.98%
Short Float
4.14%
Short Ratio
2.11
Short Shares
4.01

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

65
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$-50.3M
Average Volume
1,545,669.9x
Bv Per Share
36.68
CAPEX
$-5M
Ch1m
17.86
Ch1w
13.67
Ch1y
71.78
Ch3m
-13.03
Ch3y
24.11
Ch5y
15.04
Ch6m
-17.05
Change
2.06%
Change From Open
3.39
Close
293.4
Days Gap
-1.28
Depreciation Amortization
26,368,000
Dollar Volume
542,915,152.4
Earnings Date
2026-05-28
Earnings Time
amc
EBIT
$-135.5M
EBITDA
$-109.1M
EPS
$-0.88
F Score
3
FCF
$500.2M
FCF EV Yield
2.3x
FCF Per Share
$6.22
Financing CF
-462,439,000
Fiscal Year End
January
Founded
2,007
Goodwill
191,397,000
Income Tax
$15.5M
Investing CF
538,815,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-03-02
Last Report Date
2026-01-31
Last Split Type
Never
Last10k Filing Date
2026-03-11
Ma150
333.2
Ma150ch
-10.12%
Ma20
261
Ma20ch
14.74%
Net CF
593,872,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-05-28
Open
289.7
Optionable
Yes
P FCF Ratio
48.12
P OCF Ratio
47.65
Position In Range
91.2
Post Close
299.5
Postmarket Change Percent
0.09
Postmarket Price
$300
Ppne
68,751,000
Pre Close
293.4
Price Date
2026-05-08
Ptbv Ratio
8.83
Relative Volume
1.17x
Revenue
2,463,797,000x
SBC By Revenue
22.34x
Share Based Comp
550,454,000
Tax By Revenue
0.63x
Tr6m
-17.05%
Us State
New York
Volume
1,812,920
Z Score
17.14

Deeper analysis on MDB

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this MDB report
What is the current MDB stock rating?
MongoDB, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MDB analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MDB/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MDB?
The latest report frames MDB around $193 to $377. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MDB page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldMDB · Fair value $275-8.0% · Confidence 77/100
Read full analysis →