Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSE: MS · Real-Time Price · USD
$193
+2.93 (+1.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MS rated Sell
MS is rated Sell at $193.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $128.06, implying -33.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$128 / share
$89.9 – $162
Upside to FV
-33.7%
from $193
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Perfect execution of the wealth strategy commands a structural premium, but still fails to justify the $193 current price.
Biggest risk
Severe Equity Market Drawdown
Severe Equity Market Drawdown: A prolonged 20%+ market correction drives severe AUM attrition, compressing fee yields and crushing capital markets activity simultaneously.
Recommended action
Sell
MS is rated Sell at $193.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $128.06, implying -33.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $304.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 73.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 17.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $11.0 | |
| Shares out | 1.6B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 17.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 15.2x | |
| Dividend | $4.00 (2.07%) | |
| Volume | 5,873,806 | |
| Beta | 1.21 | |
| Price target | $197 | +1.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Morgan StanleyMS
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 73.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 17.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $11.0
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.2x
- Market cap
- $304.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $56.41B | $50.21B | $50.67B | $57.62B | $65.97B | +4.0% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $15.03B | $11.03B | $9.09B | $13.39B | $16.86B | +2.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $6.15 | $5.18 | $7.95 | $10.21 | +13.5% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $25.27B | $23.96B | $25.46B | $27.14B | $30.25B | +4.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $89.9
- Fair value (mid)
- $128
- Fair value (high)
- $162
- Current price
- $193
- Upside to mid
- -33.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income | $124 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $136 | 55% |
| Ddm | $71.45 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $186 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $402 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $42.68 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $224 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$197
+1.9%
In the news
Latest news · MS
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $304.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.2x
- P/S
- 4.2x
- P/B
- 2.9x
- PEG
- 1.56
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 87.4%
- Operating margin
- 38.4%
- ROE
- 16.4%
- ROA
- 1.3%
- ROIC
- 3.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 5.02
- Current ratio
- 1.96
- Quick ratio
- 1.53
Trading
- Beta
- 1.21
- Volume
- 5,873,806
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -33.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$161.78
-16.2% from spot
Perfect execution of the wealth strategy commands a structural premium, but still fails to justify the $193 current price.
- Terminal multiple expands to 15x.
- High single-digit structural revenue growth.
Base55%
Price target
$128.06
-33.7% from spot
Steady wealth accumulation is offset by normalized cycle multiples, highlighting massive current overvaluation.
- Terminal multiple normalizes to 12x.
- Revenue fades to 3.5% terminal growth.
Bear25%
Price target
$89.88
-53.5% from spot
Market correction erodes AUM, while investment banking pipeline dries up, reverting MS to a lower-tier multiple.
- Terminal multiple compresses to 10x.
- Revenue growth stagnates at 1-2%.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $128.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residual income | 40% | $124 | -36.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 55% | $136 | -29.3% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $71.5 | -63.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $186 | -3.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $402 | +108.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $42.7 | -77.9% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $224 | +15.9% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $128 | -33.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $152 | $167 | $186 | $209 | $224 |
| 8.0% | $128 | $139 | $152 | $167 | $186 |
| 9.0% | $111 | $119 | $128 | $139 | $152 |
| 10.0% | $97.8 | $104 | $111 | $119 | $128 |
| 11.0% | $87.4 | $92.3 | $97.8 | $104 | $111 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.8
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.8 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero weight recommended.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$193
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Harvest remaining gains and exit positions entirely at current $193 levels.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC3.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MS indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
247
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 247 of 247 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MS
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MS report
What is the current MS stock rating?
Morgan Stanley is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MS analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MS/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MS?
The latest report frames MS around $90 to $162. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MS page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellMS · Fair value $128-33.7% · Confidence 88/100