Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

NASDAQ: STX · USD

$698

+29.72 (+4.5%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-21

Our latest published analysis: STX rated Sell

Seagate Technology Holdings plc's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$273 / share

Potential value

$396 / share

Upside to FV

-68.8%

from $698

Moat

7/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$195.3B
Revenue (ttm)	13.8B
Net income (ttm)	4.4B
EPS (ttm)	$19.1
Shares out	230M
P/E (trailing)	36.6x
P/E (forward)	24.0x
Dividend	$2.96 (0.42%)
Volume	10,209,820
Beta	2.08

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 13.8B
Net income (ttm): 4.4B
EPS (ttm): $19.1
P/E (trailing): 36.6x
P/E (forward): 24.0x
Market cap: $195.3B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-07-01	2023-06-30	2024-06-28	2025-06-27	2026-07-03	Trend
Revenue	$11.66B	$7.38B	$6.55B	$9.10B	$12.20B	+1.1%
Gross profit	$3.47B	$1.42B	$1.54B	$3.20B	$5.56B	+12.5%
Operating income	$1.96B	$-342.0M	$452.0M	$1.89B	$4.09B	+20.3%
Net income	$1.65B	$-529.0M	$335.0M	$1.47B	$3.18B	+17.9%
EPS (diluted)	$7.36	$-2.56	$1.58	$6.77	$13.90	+17.2%
EBITDA	$2.38B	$330.0M	$1.04B	$2.09B	$4.25B	+15.6%
R&D	$941.0M	$797.0M	$654.0M	$724.0M	$755.0M	-5.4%
SG&A	$559.0M	$491.0M	$460.0M	$561.0M	$577.0M	+0.8%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	卖出
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	持有
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	强力买入

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$273.49

-68.8% from spot

The modal base scenario incorporates solid near-term volume recovery through FY2027 and FY2028 before revenue growth and operating margins normalize toward historical averages. This path produces a target of $273.49 with an assigned probability of 50.0%, implying a return of -68.8% relative to $877.33. The scenario would be disconfirmed if nearline revenue growth decelerates sharply or capital spending breaches targeted ranges over the next twelve months.

Revenue expands sharply through FY2027 and FY2028 before stabilizing
Operating margins peak near current levels then fade toward normalized baseline
Tooling capital spending stays within four to six percent of revenue
Terminal growth rate of two percent

Bull15%

Price target

$395.51

-54.9% from spot

In the bull scenario, artificial intelligence data expansion drives prolonged mass-capacity shortages, allowing hard drive suppliers to sustain pricing premiums and push operating margins to record highs. Under this path, our target is $395.51 with a probability of 15.0%, representing a return of -54.9% from $877.33. Disconfirmation would appear if cloud spending pauses or enterprise solid-state drives erode nearline share within the next two fiscal years.

Accelerated mass-capacity cloud storage demand
HAMR yields scale smoothly with pricing power
Operating margins exceed thirty-five percent
Diluted EPS compound annual growth exceeds thirty percent

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($273.49). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.5%	$303	$308	$315	$322	$330
10.5%	$283	$288	$292	$298	$304
11.5%	$266	$270	$273	$278	$282
12.5%	$252	$254	$257	$261	$264
13.5%	$239	$241	$243	$246	$249

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E24

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E61.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE259.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC109

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All STX indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

290

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 290 of 290 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001137789
Company name	Seagate Technology Holdings plc
Country	Singapore
Country code	US
CUSIP number	G7997R103
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	amc
Employees	30,000
Employees change	0
Employees growth	0%
Enterprise value	$161.5B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-10-02
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	July
Founded	1978
In index	SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry	Computer Hardware
IPO date	2002-12-11
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	IE00BKVD2N49
Last 10-K release date	2026-08-04
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$160.4B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-26
Options	Yes
Price	$697.54
Price currency	USD
Sector	Technology
SIC code	3572
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	STX
Website	https://www.seagate.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	33.86x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	19.07x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	34.65x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	27.13x
Earnings yield	2.73%
EV/Earnings	36.11x
EV/EBIT	28.41x
EV/EBITDA	27.06x
EV/FCF	38.19x
EV/Sales	11.5x
FCF / EV yield	2.62%
FCF yield	2.64%
Forward EV/Sales	7.06x
Forward P/E	14.89x
Forward P/S	7.01x
Graham number	80.60393
Graham upside	-88.24%
Industry forward P/E	13.8x
Industry P/E	27.32x
Lynch fair value	$422.19
Lynch upside	-38.41%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	40.09x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	34.21x
P/B ratio	44.1x
P/E ratio	36.58x
P/FCF ratio	37.93x
P/OCF ratio	32.63x
P/S ratio	11.43x
PEG ratio	0.19x
Price / tangible book value	70.64x
Price/EBITDA ratio	26.87x
Sector forward P/E	18.38x
Sector P/E	32.76x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	40.49%
EBITDA margin	42.52%
Effective tax rate	13.09%
FCF margin	30.13%
Gross margin	50.35%
Operating margin	40.49%
Pretax margin	36.65%
Profit margin	31.86%
Profit per employee	$146,533
Profitable quarters	10
Profitable years	3
Revenue per employee	$459,967
ROA	37.21%
ROA (5Y)	12.19%
ROCE	75.93%
ROE	259.35%
ROIC	109.03%
ROIC (5Y)	31.14%
SBC / revenue	1.62%
Tax / revenue	4.8%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	144.21%
EPS growth (Q)	212.35%
EPS growth (QoQ)	36.19%
EPS growth 10Y	31.18%
EPS growth 5Y	22.92%
EPS growth quarters	4
EPS growth years	3
FCF growth	241.3%
FCF growth (Q)	246.37%
FCF growth (QoQ)	32.29%
FCF growth 3Y	93.81%
FCF growth 5Y	25.77%
Gross profit growth	96.49%
Gross profit growth (Q)	134.04%
Gross profit growth 3Y	84.96%
Gross profit growth 5Y	16.22%
Net income growth	156.63%
Net income growth (Q)	220.77%
Net income growth (QoQ)	36.09%
Net income growth 5Y	22.14%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	3
OCF growth	217.9%
OCF growth (Q)	217.67%
OCF growth (QoQ)	29.5%
OCF growth 10Y	12.81%
OCF growth 3Y	80.33%
OCF growth 5Y	21.5%
Operating income growth	150.43%
Operating income growth (Q)	192.5%
Operating income growth 5Y	24.94%
Revenue growth	44.37%
Revenue growth (Q)	61.01%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	16.64%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.26%
Revenue growth 3Y	26.59%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.74%
Revenue growth quarters	9
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-675M
Depreciation and amortization	$280M
EBIT	$5.6B
EBITDA	$5.9B
EPS	$19.07
FCF per share	$18.07
Financing cash flow	$-3.9B
Free cash flow	$4.2B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$3.9B
Gross profit	$6.9B
Income taxes	$662M
Investing cash flow	$-646M
Net borrowing	$-2.7B
Net cash flow	$256M
Net income	$4.4B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$4.6B
Operating income	$5.6B
Revenue	$13.8B
Stock-based compensation	$224M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$15.14
Debt / EBITDA	0.4
Debt / equity	0.68
Debt / FCF	0.57
Goodwill	$1.2B
Interest coverage	22.8
Long-term assets	$4.9B
Long-term liabilities	$3.9B
Net cash (debt)	$-1.1B
Net cash / market cap	-0.69%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.19
Net debt / equity	0.32
Net debt / FCF	0.26
Piotroski F-Score	8
Property, plant and equipment	$2.2B
Shareholders' equity	$3.5B
Tangible book value	$2.2B
Tangible book value per share	$9.79
Total assets	$10.3B
Total cash	$1.3B
Total debt	$2.4B
Total liabilities	$6.9B
WACC	15.6%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.47
Current assets	$5.4B
Current liabilities	$3B
Current ratio	1.82
Inventory turnover	4.29
Net working capital	$1.2B
Quick ratio	1.04
Working capital	$2.4B
Working capital turnover	11.78

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-5.01%
Dividend growth	2.78%
Dividend growth (10Y)	4.59%
Dividend growth (3Y)	1.87%
Dividend growth (5Y)	2.01%
Dividend growth years	2
Dividend payment date	2026-10-07
Dividend payment years	16
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.96
Dividend yield	0.42%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-24
FCF payout ratio	16.38%
Last dividend	$0.74
Payout ratio	15.52%
Shareholder yield	-4.58%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	1,921.32%
10Y return CAGR	40.58%
10Y total return	2,913.78%
150-day SMA	$787.75
15Y price change	4,138.21%
15Y return CAGR	33.95%
15Y total return	7,916.42%
1D price change	4.45%
1M price change	-24.51%
1M total return	-24.51%
1W price change	2.51%
1W total return	2.51%
1Y price change	200.5%
1Y return CAGR	202.5%
1Y total return	202.27%
20-day SMA	$735.31
200-day SMA	$688.99
20Y price change	3,021.79%
20Y return CAGR	23.16%
20Y total return	6,345.17%
3M price change	-15.29%
3M total return	-15.22%
3Y price change	914.81%
3Y return CAGR	120.81%
3Y total return	977.25%
50-day SMA	$805.73
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$1,145.00
52-week high date	2026-06-18
52-week low	$217.67
52-week low date	2025-10-28
5Y price change	686.21%
5Y return CAGR	55.4%
5Y total return	805.99%
6M price change	16.15%
6M total return	16.33%
After-hours change	0.07%
After-hours close	$697.54
After-hours price	$698.00
All-time high	$1,145.00
All-time high date	2026-06-18
All-time low	$2.98
All-time low date	2009-01-23
Average true range (ATR)	$50.07
Average volume	5.8M
Beta (1Y)	2.71
Beta (2Y)	2.29
Beta (5Y)	2.08
Change from 52-week high	-39.08%
Change from 52-week low	220.46%
Change from all-time high	-39.55%
Change from all-time low	23,124.83%
Change from open	7.84%
Day's gap	-3.15%
Dollar volume	$7.1B
High price	$697.80
Low price	$621.55
Monthly RSI	63.09
Open price	$646.84
Position in 52-week range	99.66%
Premarket change	-3.24%
Premarket close	$667.85
Premarket price	$646.24
Premarket volume	555.6K
Previous close	$667.85
Price vs 150-day SMA	-12.14%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-5.88%
Price vs 200-day SMA	0.45%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-14.1%
Relative volume	1.76
RSI	42.51
Sharpe ratio	1.78
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.69
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	1.1
Sortino ratio	2.88
Sortino ratio (3Y)	2.76
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.81
Volume	10.2M
Weekly RSI	46.94
YTD price change	151.32%
YTD total return	152.14%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	226.6M
Float percentage	98.51%
Shares change (QoQ)	0%
Shares change (YoY)	5.01%
Shares held by insiders	0.27%
Shares held by institutions	84.01%
Shares outstanding	230M
Short % of float	3.08%
Short % of shares	3.03%
Short ratio	1.9 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	2,428

Deeper analysis on STX

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this STX report

What is the latest published STX stock rating?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full STX analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, lives at /stocks/STX/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for STX?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-21 gives STX a fair value of USD 273 and a potential value of USD 396. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the STX page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-21). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellSTX · Fair value $273-68.8%

Read full analysis →

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Our latest published analysis: STX rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · STX

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All STX indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on STX

Frequently asked questions

评级历史

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	4.5
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	5.0
Competitive Moat	7.0
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	8.5