Technology / Computer HardwareUpdated 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC

STX stock hub

Seagate is executing a cyclical turnaround fueled by AI datacenter restocking. However, the current share price wildly overestimates terminal growth, completely ignoring the structural decay of HDD markets.

Read full analysis Valuation Archive

Fair value midpoint

$234

$164 - $359

Upside to midpoint

-69.5%

Based on latest report

Confidence

62/100

Data quality and model convergence

Market cap

$171.9B

NASDAQ

Our take

Research highlights

What our analysis says

Pulled from the latest published report. The full reasoning lives under /analysis.

Biggest opportunity

Bull case

Bull: AI infrastructure expansion structurally extends the storage upgrade cycle, sustaining high margins and materially delaying SSD substitution.

Biggest risk

Accelerated SSD Substitution

12-24 months

Recommended action

Sell

Sell. The market has incorrectly capitalized peak cyclical earnings into perpetuity, aggressively ignoring severe structural threats and capital intensity.

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Seagate Technology Holdings plcSTX

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In the news

Latest news · STX

Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.

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Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

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EPS estimate—

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Analysis map

Jump into the research surface

These links all point into /analysis/*, so a hub rollback leaves the report reader and legacy redirects live.

Forecast

Targets

Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.

Valuation

Models

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

Sensitivity

Grid

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

Risks

Bear case

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

Earnings

Decision tree

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

Position sizing

Checkpoints

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

Financials

History

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

Peers

Comps

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

Moat

Durability

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

Industry cycle

Context

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

Scorecard

Factors

Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.

Recommendation

Verdict

Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.

Perspectives

Lenses

Growth, value, and income investor reads.

Where the current metrics sit

Percentiles come from the backend screener cohort cache for the ticker's country and sector.

Forward P/E29.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E0

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE1,788

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC69.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks - 1M

S&P 500n/a

Nasdaq Compositen/a

Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a

Russell 2000n/a

Our take

Indicator catalog

All STX market and fundamental indicators

A searchable catalog of the available market, valuation, profitability, growth, balance-sheet, ownership, and analyst metrics for this ticker.

Available fields

281

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Cik	0001137789
Company name	Seagate Technology Holdings plc
Country	Singapore
Country code	US
Cusip	G7997R103
Employees	30,000
Employees Change	0%
Employees Change Percent	0
Enterprise value	$178.5B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
First seen	2026-05-09
In Index	SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry	Computer Hardware
IPO Date	2002-12-11
Isin	IE00BKVD2N49
Last refreshed	2026-05-10
Market cap	$175.5B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Price	$783
Price currency	USD
Rev Per Employee	367,000x
Sector	Technology
Sic	3572
Symbol	STX
Website	https://www.seagate.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Earnings Yield	1.36%
EV Earnings	75.07x
EV Sales Forward	12.24x
EV/EBIT	54.98x
EV/EBITDA	50.8x
EV/FCF	74.01x
EV/Sales	16.21x
FCF yield	1.37%
Forward P/E	33.13x
P/B ratio	160.39x
P/E ratio	74.12x
P/S ratio	15.94x
PE Ratio10 Y	17.85x
PE Ratio3 Y	30.54x
PE Ratio5 Y	22.11x
PEG ratio	0.53x
PS Forward	12.03x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT Margin	29.49%
EBITDA Margin	31.92%
FCF margin	21.91%
Gross margin	41.57%
Gross Profit	$4.6B
Gross Profit Growth	58.05%
Gross Profit Growth Q	87.92%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y	36.34%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y	11.14%
Net Income	$2.4B
Net Income Growth	59.17%
Net Income Growth Q	120%
Net Income Growth Quarters	3%
Net Income Growth Years	2%
Net Income Growth5 Y	18.96%
Pretax Margin	24.31%
Profit Margin	21.6%
Profit Per Employee	$79,267
Profitable Years	2
ROA	24.66
Roa5y	8.49
ROCE	57.46
ROE	1,788
ROIC	69.14
Roic5y	26.06

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
Cagr10y	51.14%
Cagr15y	34.62%
Cagr1y	731.72%
Cagr20y	22.84%
Cagr3y	147.41%
Cagr5y	58.47%
Div CAGR10	1.92%
Div CAGR3	1.64%
Div CAGR5	2.02%
EPS Growth	54.13
EPS Growth Q	108.3
EPS Growth Quarters	3
EPS Growth Years	2
EPS Growth5 Y	21.69
FCF Growth	212.03%
FCF Growth Q	341.2%
FCF Growth3 Y	62.13%
FCF Growth5 Y	18.14%
OCF Growth	185.13%
OCF Growth Q	330.12%
OCF Growth10 Y	5.79%
OCF Growth3 Y	47.09%
OCF Growth5 Y	13.37%
Revenue Growth	28.92x
Revenue Growth Q	44.07x
Revenue Growth Quarters	8x
Revenue Growth Years	1x
Revenue Growth3 Y	9.39x
Revenue Growth5 Y	1.57x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Asset Turnover	$1.34
Assets	$8.9B
Cash	$1.1B
Current Assets	$4.3B
Current Liabilities	$3.2B
Debt	$4.2B
Debt EBITDA	$1.16
Debt Equity	$3.82
Debt FCF	$1.73
Equity	$1.1B
Interest Coverage	11.01
Liabilities	$7.8B
Long Term Assets	$4.6B
Long Term Liabilities	$4.6B
Net Cash	$-3B
Net Cash By Market Cap	$-1.73
Net Debt EBITDA	$0.86
Net Debt Equity	$2.77
Net Debt FCF	$1.26
Tangible Book Value	$-126M
Tangible Book Value Per Share	$-0.56
WACC	15.09

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Current ratio	1.33
Inventory Turnover	4.29
Net Working Capital	$310M
Quick ratio	0.77
Working Capital	$1.1B
Working Capital Turnover	$11.42

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback Yield	-3.33%
Dividend Growth	2.8%
Dividend Growth Years	2%
Dividend per share	$2.96
Dividend Years	16
Dividend Yield	0.38%
Ex Div Date	2026-06-24
Last Dividend	$0.74
Payout Frequency	Quarterly
Payout Ratio	27.84%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y total return	6,117.45%
1Y total return	730.52%
200-day SMA	321.4
3Y total return	1,415.32%
50-day SMA	496.2
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
5Y total return	898.97%
All Time High	802.1
All Time High Change	-2.43%
All Time High Date	2026-05-08
All Time Low	2.98
All Time Low Change	26,163.09%
All Time Low Date	2009-01-23
ATR	37.78
Beta	2.01
Beta1y	2.08
Beta2y	2.06
Ch YTD	184.2
High	802.1
High52	802.1
High52 Date	2026-05-08
High52ch	-2.43%
Low	772
Low52	94.97
Low52 Date	2025-05-08
Low52ch	724.07%
Ma50ch	57.74%
Premarket Change Percent	1.46
Premarket Price	$778
Premarket Volume	68,983
Price vs 200-day SMA	143.49%
RSI	82.11
RSI Monthly	94.68
RSI Weekly	85.72
Sharpe ratio	3.68x
Sortino ratio	7.02
Total Return	-2.95%
Tr YTD	184.7
Tr15y	8,547.03%
Tr1m	66.97%
Tr1w	7.66%
Tr3m	82.62%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

Metric	Value
Analyst Count	21
Analyst Count Top	17
Analyst Price Target Top	$660
Analyst Ratings	Buy
Analyst Ratings Top	Buy
Earnings EPS Estimate	$3.45
Earnings EPS Estimate Growth	81.58
Earnings Revenue Estimate	2,954,156,576x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth	36.77x
Operating Income	$3.2B
Operating Income Growth	99.57
Operating Income Growth Q	146.1
Operating Income Growth3 Y	100.5
Operating Income Growth5 Y	19.8
Operating margin	29.49
Price target	$610
Price Target Change	$-22.05
Price Target Change Top	$-15.62

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	223,509,612%
Float Percent	99.68%
Net Borrowing	-1,289,000,000
Shares Insiders	0.24%
Shares Institutions	84.98%
Shares Out	224,228,992
Shares Qo Q	0.44%
Shares Yo Y	3.33%
Short Float	3.78%
Short Ratio	2.16
Short Shares	3.76

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

Metric	Value
Adjusted FCF	$2.2B
Average Volume	4,664,265.05x
Bv Per Share	4.88
CAPEX	$-465M
Ch10y	4,004
Ch15y	4,416.1
Ch1m	66.97
Ch1w	7.66
Ch1y	719.9
Ch20y	2,855.6
Ch3m	82.3
Ch3y	1,299.1
Ch5y	754.8
Ch6m	180.2
Change	2.11%
Change From Open	0.34
Close	766.4
Days Gap	1.77
Depreciation Amortization	267,000,000
Dollar Volume	3,813,418,095.8
Earnings Date	2026-04-28
Earnings Time	amc
EBIT	$3.2B
EBITDA	$3.5B
EPS	$10.56
F Score	7
FCF	$2.4B
FCF EV Yield	1.35x
FCF Per Share	$10.76
Financing CF	-2,047,000,000
Fiscal Year End	June
Founded	1,978
Goodwill	1,221,000,000
Graham Number	34.04759
Graham Upside	-95.65
Income Tax	$299M
Investing CF	-499,000,000
Is Primary Listing	1
Is Spac	No
Last Earnings Date	2026-04-28
Last Report Date	2026-04-03
Last Split Type	Never
Last10k Filing Date	2025-08-01
Lynch Fair Value	$200
Lynch Upside	-74.41
Ma150	368.1
Ma150ch	112.63%
Ma20	628.2
Ma20ch	24.59%
Net CF	331,000,000
Next Earnings Date	2026-07-28
Open	780
Optionable	Yes
P FCF Ratio	72.76
P OCF Ratio	61
Payment Date	2026-07-07
Position In Range	35.31
Post Close	782.6
Postmarket Change Percent	0.29
Postmarket Price	$785
Ppne	1,852,000,000
Pre Close	766.4
Price Date	2026-05-08
Price EBITDA	$49.94
Relative Volume	1.04x
Revenue	11,010,000,000x
SBC By Revenue	1.98x
Share Based Comp	218,000,000
Tax By Revenue	2.72x
Tax Rate	11.17%
Tr20y	6,016.39%
Tr6m	181.39%
Views	301
Volume	4,872,506
Z Score	5.32

Fast facts

Decision checkpoints

A compact product layer over the same report payload.

Risk gate

Named kill scenarios are reviewed before any bullish rating can stand.

Moat score

3/10

Business quality stays separate from stock attractiveness.

Forward P/E

29.2x

Valuation uses the full report model stack, not a single multiple.

Next action

Sell

Final action steps are kept in the recommendation tab.

Our take

Income

STX dividend yield, growth & safety

Yield, payout sustainability, and the multi-year growth streak.

Dividend yield

+0.4%

$2.96 annual per share

Payout ratio

+27.8%

Share of earnings returned as dividends. Below 60% is generally sustainable.

5Y dividend CAGR

+2.0%

2 consecutive years of growth

Total shareholder yield

-2.9%

Next ex-dividend date: 2026-06-24

Performance

STX stock returns vs the market

Total return (incl. dividends) compared to S&P 500.

Ownership

Who owns STX?

Insider, institutional, and short-interest positioning.

Institutional ownership

+85.0%

Float: +99.7% of shares outstanding

Insider ownership

+0.2%

Stake held by company insiders. Higher generally signals alignment.

Negative means the company is buying back shares.

Technical

STX momentum and risk profile

RSI, moving-average stack, beta, and risk-adjusted return.

RSI (14)

82.1

Above 70: short-term overbought

Price vs 200-day MA

+143.5%

50/200-day relationship not available

Beta (5Y)

2.01

More volatile than the market

Sharpe ratio

3.68

Risk-adjusted return — higher is better; >1.0 is solid.

Peers

STX vs. sector cohort

Currency-neutral comparison: P/E, P/S, ROIC, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 1Y total return. Market-cap column appears only when every peer reports in the same currency.

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
BA	The Boeing Company	187.1B	95.1x	2.0x	-13.6%	+10.3%	+27.9%	卖出
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Company	114.7B	15.7x	2.4x	20.9%	+2.5%	+23.8%	强力买入
CMCSA	Comcast Corporation	90.7B	5.0x	0.7x	8.0%	+3.8%	-17.7%	强力买入
LITE	Lumentum Holdings Inc.	64.8B	171.8x	26.0x	8.3%	+7.7%	+1264.4%	减持

Questions

About STX

Hub-level FAQ points readers to the deeper analysis pages.

What is the current STX stock rating?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full STX analysis?

The full report lives at /stocks/STX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.

What fair-value range is used for STX?

The latest report frames STX around $164 to $359. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.

How often is the STX page updated?

The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.