Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSE: UNP · Real-Time Price · USD
$265
-0.24 (-0.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: UNP rated Reduce
UNP is rated Reduce at $264.65 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $229.41, implying -13.32% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$229 / share
$184 – $275
Upside to FV
-13.3%
from $265
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
internal valuation cross-checks is overly optimistic, valuing UNP at $291 based on extrapolation of peak multiples.
Biggest risk
Severe Economic Recession
The $229 base case fair value suggests the stock has pulled forward several years of execution.
Recommended action
Reduce
UNP is rated Reduce at $264.65 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $229.41, implying -13.32% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $157.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 24.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 7.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $12.2 | |
| Shares out | 593.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 21.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.3x | |
| Dividend | $5.52 (2.09%) | |
| Volume | 1,788,018 | |
| Beta | 0.99 | |
| Price target | $276 | +4.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Union Pacific CorporationUNP
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 24.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 7.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $12.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.3x
- Market cap
- $157.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $24.88B | $24.12B | $24.25B | $24.51B | -0.4% |
| Gross profit | — | $11.21B | $10.53B | $11.04B | $11.22B | +0.0% |
| Operating income | — | $9.92B | $9.08B | $9.71B | $9.85B | -0.2% |
| Net income | — | $7.00B | $6.38B | $6.75B | $7.14B | +0.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.95 | $11.21 | $10.45 | $11.09 | $11.98 | +4.8% |
| EBITDA | — | $12.59B | $11.89B | $12.46B | $12.94B | +0.7% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $184
- Fair value (mid)
- $229
- Fair value (high)
- $275
- Current price
- $265
- Upside to mid
- -13.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $215 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $253 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $180 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $253 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $385 | 10% |
| Ddm | $108 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $74.24 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$276
+4.1%
In the news
Latest news · UNP
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $157.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.3x
- P/S
- 6.4x
- P/B
- 8.1x
- PEG
- 2.29
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.5%
- Operating margin
- 40.9%
- ROE
- 40.7%
- ROA
- 9.1%
- ROIC
- 15.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.62
- Current ratio
- 0.92
- Quick ratio
- 0.66
Trading
- Beta
- 0.99
- Volume
- 1,788,018
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -13.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$275.43
+4.1% from spot
Nearshoring accelerates, driving sustained volume growth. Operational excellence pushes the operating ratio structurally below 58%. The company leverages its network density to extract maximum pricing power without STB intervention, justifying a higher terminal multiple.
- Revenue CAGR >4%
- Operating margin expands to 43%
- Terminal multiple expands to 18x
Base60%
Price target
$229.41
-13.3% from spot
Steady-state operation with GDP-plus pricing power offsetting flat to low-single-digit volume growth. CapEx remains disciplined at 15% of revenue, generating reliable FCF to fund the dividend and steady buybacks. Terminal multiple stabilizes at 16x.
- Revenue growth 3-4%
- Operating margin ~40%
- Terminal multiple 16x
Bear20%
Price target
$183.57
-30.6% from spot
Industrial recession hits volumes, while labor inflation and regulatory constraints limit pricing action. Margin compression accelerates as operating leverage works in reverse. DDM implies a severe penalty if cash distribution growth stalls.
- Revenue growth <2%
- Operating margin compresses below 38%
- Regulatory pricing caps instituted
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $229.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 30% | $215 | -18.6% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $253 | -4.6% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $180 | -31.9% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $253 | -4.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $385 | +45.4% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $108 | -59.1% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $74.2 | -71.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $229 | -13.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $271 | $311 | $366 | $377 | $377 |
| 6.4% | $215 | $240 | $271 | $311 | $366 |
| 7.4% | $179 | $195 | $215 | $240 | $271 |
| 8.4% | $153 | $165 | $179 | $195 | $215 |
| 9.4% | $133 | $142 | $153 | $165 | $179 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet1.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Given the 'Reduce' rating and -13.32% downside to the $229.41 base case, exposure should be minimized or hedged.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$265
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions on rallies approaching the $275 bull case, as the risk-reward becomes highly unfavorable for a capital-intensive industrial.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE40.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC15.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All UNP indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on UNP
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this UNP report
What is the current UNP stock rating?
Union Pacific Corporation is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full UNP analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/UNP/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for UNP?
The latest report frames UNP around $184 to $275. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the UNP page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceUNP · Fair value $229-13.3% · Confidence 88/100