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TMUS trades against a final fair-value range of $190.98-$286.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $191, high $287, with mid-point at $239.
Stock analysis

TMUS fair value $191–$287

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-08التحديث التالي: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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السعر
$193.63
▲ +44.92 (+23.20%)
القيمة العادلة
$239
$191–$287
التصنيف
شراء
confidence 88/100
إمكانية الصعود
+23.2%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$202.77
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$209.5B
P/E fwd 13.9
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $239 with high case $287.
  • Implied upside of 23.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$239
Margin of safety
+18.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$193.63Price
Low $190.98
Mid $238.55
High $286.83

TMUS trades against a final fair-value range of $190.98-$286.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Superior mid-band 5G spectrum portfolio
    Superior mid-band 5G spectrum portfolio driving network leadership.
  • Cost advantage from scale following
    Cost advantage from scale following successful Sprint integration.
  • Bull thesis
    TMUS is no longer a hyper-growth disruptor, but a formidable cash flow machine.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A prolonged recession combined with aggressive cable MVNO pricing triggers a race to the bottom in postpaid ARPU, while FWA growth hits a hard capacity ceiling sooner than expected.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Cable MVNO Margin Squeeze

· Medium

CMCSA and CHTR aggressively cut converged mobile-broadband pricing, stalling TMUS subscriber growth and forcing margin-dilutive promotions.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
12-24 months

FWA Capacity Saturation

· High

Fixed Wireless Access net additions decelerate sharply as network capacity limits are reached in profitable geographies, neutralizing a key growth vector.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Debt Service Squeeze

· Low

Higher-for-longer interest rates significantly increase the refinancing burden on the $122B debt load, impairing the massive buyback and dividend program.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
36+ months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Consecutive quarters of declining postpaid phone net additions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Postpaid churn rising above historical 0.8-0.9% baseline.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
FWA net additions falling below 300k per quarter.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
EBITDA margin compression driven by promotional device subsidies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Scaling back of planned buyback velocity or dividend growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات

البند2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
الإيرادات$79.57B$78.56B-1.3%$81.40B+3.6%$88.31B+8.5%+3.5%
إجمالي الربح$43.37B$48.37B$51.75B$55.54B+8.6%
الدخل التشغيلي$8.11B$14.24B$18.01B$18.56B+31.8%
صافي الدخل$2.59B$8.32B+221.2%$11.34B+36.3%$10.99B-3.1%+61.9%
EPS (مخفف)$2.06$6.93$9.66$9.72+67.7%
EBITDA$20.16B$27.15B$31.04B$31.56B+16.1%
البحث والتطوير
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$21.61B$21.31B$20.82B$23.47B+2.8%

درجات الجودة

درجة Piotroski F
6 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
1.6
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
درجة Beneish M
-2.75
مخاطر التلاعب بالأرباح
OCF / صافي الدخل
2.54×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
7.9%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVENUE FAQ

TMUS revenue questions

  1. TMUS (TMUS)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.
FAQ

TMUS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TMUS looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $194 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $239 (range $191–$287), which implies roughly 23.2% upside to the midpoint.
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