ASML vs AMAT: side-by-side analysis

Where ASML and AMAT sit on fair value

ASML's composite fair-value range is $1436–$1799 (midpoint $1611), versus a current price of $1386. AMAT is one of ASML's closest sector neighbours and shows up directly in the peer table inside our full report, with a market-cap of $321B, P/E of 41.5x, EV/EBITDA of 36.0x, and an operating margin of 29.9%. The cross-read is editorial: same archetype expectations, same discount-rate philosophy, different operating model.

Both names are evaluated under the same six-factor decision overlay (customer value, unit economics, TAM, moat durability, risk profile, valuation) so comparing them is apples-to-apples rather than headline-multiple-to-headline-multiple. The rating differential between ASML and AMAT is driven by where each lands across those six axes, not by who looks "cheaper" on a single screen.

Where they actually differ

ASML is classified as a growth infrastructure stock; the archetype dictates our deceleration curve, terminal multiple, and probability weights. AMAT, depending on its own archetype, will have its own calibration — and that is precisely why simple peer multiples can mislead. A 29.1× forward P/E with a PEG of 2.25 is not the same on ASML as it is on AMAT unless they share the same growth profile, capital intensity, and moat half-life.

ASML's moat assessment is 10/10, and the full moat section in the report covers the source (network effects, switching costs, intangibles, scale, etc.) plus the timeline of any threats. The cross-read against AMAT should focus on which company's economic profit (ROIC minus WACC) is wider AND more durable — that is the variable that dominates long-run total return between two same-sector names.

Which one wins on each dimension

Valuation: ASML looks meaningfully undervalued versus our fair-value midpoint. The full report's peer table compares ASML and AMAT directly on P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and operating margin. Risk: the bear case for ASML is bound by the kill-scenarios list in Section 2; the equivalent for AMAT would need its own report. We do not co-rate two companies on a single page.

Capital allocation and growth runway typically separate same-sector pairs more than the headline numbers suggest. The full report's capital-allocation paragraph and TAM analysis are the lenses we recommend before deciding whether ASML or AMAT is the better expression of the same theme.

Bottom line — ASML or AMAT?

Our rating for ASML is Buy with a 85/100 confidence score; the rating already accounts for the relative-value information embedded in the peer table that includes AMAT. The cross-read is most useful when the two companies are real substitutes in a portfolio (same factor exposure, same end markets, same archetype) — otherwise the comparison is theatre.

For the full evidence on ASML, including the explicit peer multiples versus AMAT and the rest of the comp set, see the canonical report at /stocks/asml/analysis. For AMAT's standalone report, see /stocks/amat/analysis.

Frequently asked questions