Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $181, high $341, with mid-point at $261.
Stock analysis

CME fair value $181–$341

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-20Next update: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Last price
$302.37
▼ -41.21 (-13.63%)
Fair value
$261
$181–$341
Rating
Reduce
confidence 88/100
Upside
-13.6%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$221.99
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$109.6B
P/E fwd 23.5

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $261 with high case $341.
  • Implied downside of 13.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$261
Margin of safety
-15.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$302.37Price
Low $181.11
Mid $261.16
High $341.31

CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Near-monopoly network effects in interest
    Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
  • Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
    Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
  • Cycle upside
    High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.

§2 Bear case

A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range., dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.

Ways this thesis can break

ZIRP Return

20%· Medium

A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.

FV impact
Drives fair value to $181.11, a 40% downside from current prices.

Regulatory Fee Capping

10%· Low

Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin revenue streams.

FV impact
Reduces intrinsic value by ~15% via lower operating margins.

DeFi Disruption

5%· Low

Decentralized ledgers bypass traditional clearinghouses, destroying CME's core wide-moat monopolistic advantage over the long term.

FV impact
Catastrophic multiple compression to mid-teens P/E.
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Operating margin sustained contraction below 60%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward P/E multiple compressing to 15-18x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in interest rate derivative open interest.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions enforcing strict caps on market data pricing.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share in core agricultural or energy futures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Period2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue$4.69B$5.02B$5.58B$6.13B$6.52B+8.6%
Gross profit$3.85B$4.27B$4.75B$5.28B$5.61B+9.9%
Operating income$2.65B$3.02B$3.44B$3.93B$4.23B+12.4%
Net income$2.64B$2.69B$3.23B$3.53B$4.07B+11.5%
EPS (diluted)$7.29$7.40$8.86$9.67$11.16+11.2%
EBITDA$3.93B$4.02B$4.67B$5.04B$5.83B+10.4%
R&D——————
SG&A$151.7M$137.4M$144.4M$132.7M$150.5M-0.2%

Quality scores

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
0–9 quality composite
Altman Z-score
0.59
Bankruptcy risk (>3 safe)
Beneish M-score
-2.56
Earnings manipulation risk
OCF / Net income
1.05×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Pass
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
13.5%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Full report for every covered ticker
24 months of rating archive
Watchlist briefings + rating-change alerts
PDF + DOCX export in any language
Start free trial
Cancel anytime.
FAQ

CME — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CME screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $302 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $261 (range $181–$341), which implies roughly 13.6% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of CME also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder