DE trades against a final fair-value range of $256.94-$460.57, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $257, high $461, with mid-point at $353.
Stock analysis
Deere & CompanyDE Deere & Company fair value $353–$461
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$353
Margin of safety
-62.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$574.84Price
FV $352.98
High $460.57
DE trades against a final fair-value range of $256.94-$460.57, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Precision Agriculture software and autonomous
Precision Agriculture software and autonomous technology integration.
Unmatched dealer network creating high
Unmatched dealer network creating high switching costs.
Bull thesis
The street is pricing Deere as a durable ag-tech compounder rather than a legacy cyclical industrial.
§2 Bear case
A prolonged depression in crop prices coupled with sustained high interest rates crushes farmer sentiment, leading to an extended trough in equipment replacement cycles and rising defaults in the Financial Services segment.
Ways this thesis can break
Severe Crop Deflation
· Medium
Global crop surpluses suppress prices for multiple years, removing farmer incentive to upgrade equipment fleets.
FV impact
-30%
Financial Segment Credit Crisis
· Low
High interest rates cause widespread defaults among highly leveraged agricultural and construction clients, creating severe balance sheet distress.
FV impact
-25%
Precision Ag Commoditization
· Low
Competitors rapidly replicate Deere's software moat, eliminating the expected SaaS premium entirely and returning the company to historical multiples.
FV impact
-40%
Early-warning signals to monitor
Metric
Current
Trigger threshold
Consecutive quarters of declining order backlogs.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Rising 90-day delinquencies in the Financial Services segment.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Significant downward revisions to forward year EPS guidance.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Declining take-rates for premium Precision Ag features.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Substantial build-up of used equipment inventory at dealerships.
Based on our latest analysis, DE looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $575 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $353 (range $257–$461), which implies roughly 38.6% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for DE is $257–$461, with a midpoint of $353. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Deere & Company's archetype.
Our current rating for DE is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. DE is rated Sell at $574.84 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $352.98, implying -38.60% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Deere & Company are: Severe Crop Deflation; Financial Segment Credit Crisis; Precision Ag Commoditization. The single biggest risk is Deterministic models signal a material divergence from consensus expectations.
Our current rating for DE is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($257–$461) versus the current price of $575.
Deere & Company is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for DE.
