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ELV trades against a final fair-value range of $411.38-$853.64, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
A severe scenario where elevated MLR persists due to structural shifts in medical utilization, compounded by adverse Medicare rate changes, significantly compressing operating margins below their historical norms.
Sustained elevated medical utilization drives MLR structurally higher, compressing operating margins permanently below historical averages.
Aggressive legislative action slashes Medicare Advantage and Medicaid reimbursement rates, effectively stunting top-line growth.
Intense PBM competition limits Carelon's ability to win new external mandates, stalling the long-term margin-expansion thesis.
| Line item | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $156.60B | $171.34B+9.4% | $176.81B+3.2% | $199.13B+12.6% | +6.2% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | $5.89B | $5.99B+1.7% | $5.98B-0.2% | $5.66B-5.4% | -1.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $24.81 | $25.22 | $25.68 | $25.21 | +0.4% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $15.91B | $17.69B | — | — | — | +2.7% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Operating margins dipping below the 5.0% normalized threshold. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
| Material reduction in projected share repurchase pacing. | Monitor | Deterioration versus the report thesis |
