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GE trades against a final fair-value range of $132.35-$235.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $132, high $236, with mid-point at $184.
Stock analysis

GE GE fair value $132–$236

GE
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-08Next update: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Last price
$297.15
▼ -113.16 (-38.08%)
Fair value
$184
$132–$236
Rating
Sell
confidence 81/100
Upside
-38.1%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$156.39
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$310.5B
P/E fwd 34.3

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $184 with high case $236.
  • Implied downside of 38.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 81/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$184
Margin of safety
-61.5%
Confidence
81/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$297.15Price
Low $132.35
Mid $183.99
High $235.97

GE trades against a final fair-value range of $132.35-$235.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Installed base of commercial engines
    Installed base of commercial engines drives captive aftermarket recurring revenue.
  • Massive barriers to entry via
    Massive barriers to entry via extreme capital intensity and regulatory certification.
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation anchors of $350 aggressively extrapolate peak multiples.

§2 Bear case

A severe global macroeconomic contraction reduces air traffic, stalling new aircraft deliveries and delaying high-margin aftermarket shop visits. Concurrently, entrenched supply chain constraints prevent timely engine builds, fracturing free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion.

Ways this thesis can break

MRO Margin Compression

· Medium

LEAP engine aftermarket margins structurally fail to reach legacy peaks due to higher durability costs.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Global Recession Traffic Shock

· Low

A severe economic downturn curbs commercial air travel volume, deferring lucrative overhaul events.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
0-2 Years

Perpetual Supply Chain Paralysis

· Medium

Persistent raw material constraints throttle deliveries indefinitely, breaking capital compounding.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-5 Years
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Consecutive quarters of declining shop visit volumes.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revision of LEAP engine margin targets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Spikes in warranty or unbilled repair liabilities.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained raw material inflation outpacing escalation clauses.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Airline capacity utilization dipping below 2019 baselines.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Revenue$29.14B$35.35B$38.70B$45.86B+16.3%
Gross profit$7.56B$9.52B$11.97B$14.44B+24.1%
Operating income$3.60B$4.72B$6.76B$8.68B+34.1%
Net income$336.0M$9.48B$6.56B$8.70B+195.9%
EPS (diluted)$0.05$8.36$5.99$8.14+446.0%
EBITDA$4.05B$12.65B$9.79B$12.06B+43.9%
R&D$808.0M$1.01B$1.29B$1.58B+25.0%
SG&A$3.16B$3.80B$3.92B$4.18B+9.8%

Quality scores

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
0–9 quality composite
Altman Z-score
3.29
Bankruptcy risk (>3 safe)
Beneish M-score
-2.25
Earnings manipulation risk
OCF / Net income
0.98×
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Pass
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
21.9%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

GE — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GE looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $297 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $184 (range $132–$236), which implies roughly 38.1% downside to the midpoint.

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