JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
NYSE: JPM · Real-Time Price · USD
$302
-4.17 (-1.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: JPM rated Reduce
Reduce. The current valuation embeds peak-cycle assumptions, leaving minimal margin of safety against mean-reverting credit costs or net interest margin compression. Our fair value estimate is $263.06.
Fair value (mid)
$263 / share
$190 – $324
Upside to FV
-14.1%
from $302
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Higher-for-longer interest rates sustain elevated Net Interest Income (NII), while a macroeconomic soft landing spurs a massive recovery in investment banking, advisory, and capital markets fees. Terminal P/E reaches 16x.
Biggest risk
Severe Credit Cycle Reversion
Severe Credit Cycle Reversion: A severe macroeconomic contraction leads to broad credit deterioration, spiking provisions for credit losses across consumer and commercial portfolios.
| Market cap | $820.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 173.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 57.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $20.9 | |
| Shares out | 2.7B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 14.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 13.0x | |
| Dividend | $6.00 (1.99%) | |
| Volume | 9,464,268 | |
| Beta | 1.02 | |
| Price target | $332 | +9.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 173.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 57.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $20.9
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.0x
- Market cap
- $820.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $121.65B | $128.70B | $158.10B | $177.56B | $182.45B | +10.7% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $48.33B | $37.68B | $49.55B | $58.47B | $57.05B | +4.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $15.36 | $12.09 | $16.23 | $19.75 | $20.02 | +6.8% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $45.55B | $51.06B | $56.33B | $60.02B | +7.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $190
- Fair value (mid)
- $263
- Fair value (high)
- $324
- Current price
- $302
- Upside to mid
- -14.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income | $297 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $264 | 50% |
| Ddm | $123 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $404 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $438 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $35.77 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$332
+9.9%
In the news
Latest news · JPM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $820.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.0x
- P/S
- 4.7x
- P/B
- 2.4x
- PEG
- 1.53
Profitability
- Operating margin
- 43.0%
- ROE
- 16.5%
- ROA
- 1.3%
Trading
- Beta
- 1.02
- Volume
- 9,464,268
- Dividend yield
- 2.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -13.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$323.59
+5.7% from spot
Higher-for-longer interest rates sustain elevated Net Interest Income (NII), while a macroeconomic soft landing spurs a massive recovery in investment banking, advisory, and capital markets fees. Terminal P/E reaches 16x.
- Higher-for-longer rates sustain elevated NII.
- Soft landing spurs capital markets recovery.
- Terminal multiple expands to upper historical bound.
Base55%
Price target
$263.06
-14.1% from spot
Our base case assumes a return to normalized credit costs and a slight compression in NIM as rates stabilize. The valuation is anchored by a 13.5x terminal P/E, yielding a $263 fair value, significantly below internal valuation cross-checks.
- Normalized interest rate environment.
- Moderate deceleration in revenue growth.
- Terminal P/E normalizes to 13.5x.
Bear25%
Price target
$189.56
-38.1% from spot
A severe macroeconomic contraction leads to broad credit deterioration and spiking provisions for credit losses, while aggressive central bank rate cuts simultaneously compress net interest margins. Value approaches $189.
- Severe macroeconomic contraction.
- Spiking credit loss provisions.
- Aggressive rate cuts compress NIM.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $263.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residual income | 40% | $297 | -1.6% | |
| Forward earnings | 50% | $264 | -12.7% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $123 | -59.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $404 | +33.8% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $438 | +45.1% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $35.8 | -88.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $263 | -14.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $323 | $365 | $419 | $460 | $460 |
| 6.9% | $263 | $290 | $323 | $365 | $419 |
| 7.9% | $222 | $241 | $263 | $290 | $323 |
| 8.9% | $192 | $206 | $222 | $241 | $263 |
| 9.9% | $169 | $180 | $192 | $206 | $222 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation4.5
Management5.7
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality3.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
5.7/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Underweight or reduce exposure relative to benchmark.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$302
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions into strength, especially as price exceeds $310.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E13
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROICn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All JPM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
229
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 229 of 229 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on JPM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this JPM report
What is the current JPM stock rating?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full JPM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/JPM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for JPM?
The latest report frames JPM around $190 to $324. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the JPM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceJPM · Fair value $263-14.1% · Confidence 88/100