SBUX vs MCD: side-by-side analysis

Where SBUX and MCD sit on fair value

SBUX's composite fair-value range is $31.8–$49.1 (midpoint $40.4), versus a current price of $105. MCD is one of SBUX's closest sector neighbours and shows up directly in the peer table inside our full report, with a market-cap of $195.9B, P/E of 19.4x, EV/EBITDA of 16.8x, and an operating margin of 44.3%. The cross-read is editorial: same archetype expectations, same discount-rate philosophy, different operating model.

Both names are evaluated under the same six-factor decision overlay (customer value, unit economics, TAM, moat durability, risk profile, valuation) so comparing them is apples-to-apples rather than headline-multiple-to-headline-multiple. The rating differential between SBUX and MCD is driven by where each lands across those six axes, not by who looks "cheaper" on a single screen.

Where they actually differ

SBUX is classified as a mature-dividend stock; the archetype dictates our deceleration curve, terminal multiple, and probability weights. MCD, depending on its own archetype, will have its own calibration — and that is precisely why simple peer multiples can mislead. A 34.8× forward P/E with a PEG of 17.41 is not the same on SBUX as it is on MCD unless they share the same growth profile, capital intensity, and moat half-life.

SBUX's moat assessment is 6.5/10, and the full moat section in the report covers the source (network effects, switching costs, intangibles, scale, etc.) plus the timeline of any threats. The cross-read against MCD should focus on which company's economic profit (ROIC minus WACC) is wider AND more durable — that is the variable that dominates long-run total return between two same-sector names.

Which one wins on each dimension

Valuation: SBUX looks meaningfully overvalued versus our fair-value midpoint. The full report's peer table compares SBUX and MCD directly on P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and operating margin. Risk: the bear case for SBUX is bound by the kill-scenarios list in Section 2; the equivalent for MCD would need its own report. We do not co-rate two companies on a single page.

Capital allocation and growth runway typically separate same-sector pairs more than the headline numbers suggest. The full report's capital-allocation paragraph and TAM analysis are the lenses we recommend before deciding whether SBUX or MCD is the better expression of the same theme.

Bottom line — SBUX or MCD?

Our rating for SBUX is Sell with a 80/100 confidence score; the rating already accounts for the relative-value information embedded in the peer table that includes MCD. The cross-read is most useful when the two companies are real substitutes in a portfolio (same factor exposure, same end markets, same archetype) — otherwise the comparison is theatre.

For the full evidence on SBUX, including the explicit peer multiples versus MCD and the rest of the comp set, see the canonical report at /stocks/sbux/analysis. For MCD's standalone report, see /stocks/mcd/analysis.

Frequently asked questions