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SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $104, high $217, with mid-point at $155.
Stock analysis

SNOW fair value $104–$217

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-10Next update: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Last price
$152.45
▲ +2.15 (+1.41%)
Fair value
$155
$104–$217
Rating
Hold
confidence 76/100
Upside
+1.4%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$131.41
MoS level · 15%
Market Cap
$52.7B
P/E fwd 62.7

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $155 with high case $217.
  • Implied upside of 1.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$155
Margin of safety
+1.4%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.45Price
Low $103.71
Mid $154.6
High $216.73

SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High data gravity from multi-cloud
    High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
  • Switching costs associated with foundational
    Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
  • Bull thesis
    Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).

§2 Bear case

A prolonged macro downturn accelerates enterprise cloud optimization. Snowflake's consumption-based model experiences sharp revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. deceleration. Consequently, terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). drops to 2%, and operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. stalls at 15%.

Ways this thesis can break

Hyperscaler displacement

· High

AWS, GCP, and Azure bundle native data platforms at zero margin, stalling Snowflake's customer acquisition and forcing massive pricing concessions.

FV impact
$103.71
Trigger
12-24 months

SBC death spiral

· High

Stock-based compensation remains >30% of revenue, heavily diluting shareholders and preventing positive GAAP EPS indefinitely despite revenue scaling.

FV impact
<$100.00
Trigger
24-36 months

AI workload migration failure

· Medium

Customers migrate AI/ML workloads to specialized compute engines, relegating Snowflake to legacy storage and compressing terminal EV/Revenue multiples below 5x.

FV impact
$85.00
Trigger
36+ months
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Net revenue retention falling below 110%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense exceeding 35% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential decline in remaining performance obligations (RPO)MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin failing to converge toward 20%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major customer defection to Databricks or hyperscalersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Revenue$2.07B$2.81B$3.63B$4.68B+31.4%
Gross profit$1.35B$1.91B$2.41B$3.15B+32.6%
Operating income$-842.3M$-1.09B$-1.46B$-1.44B—
Net income$-796.7M$-836.1M$-1.29B$-1.33B—
EPS (diluted)$-2.50$-2.55$-3.86$-3.95—
EBITDA$-752.5M$-729.3M$-1.10B$-1.08B—
R&D$788.1M$1.29B$1.78B$1.97B+35.7%
SG&A$1.40B$1.71B$2.08B$2.61B+23.0%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
-0.92
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
-0.2%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

Cash flow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Capital allocation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individual subscribers — §4 onwards11 more sections

Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

SNOW cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for SNOW (SNOW) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

SNOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SNOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $155 (range $104–$217), which implies roughly 1.4% upside to the midpoint.

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