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SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $104, high $217, with mid-point at $155.
Stock analysis

SNOW Snowflake Inc. fair value $155–$217

SNOW
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analyzed: 2026-05-10Next update: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNYSE · Information Technology
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Last price
$152.45
▲ +2.15 (+1.41%)
Fair value
$155
$155–$217
Rating
Hold
confidence 76/100
Upside
+1.4%
upside to fair value
Margin of Safety
$131.41
buy below · 15%
Market Cap
$52.7B
P/E fwd 62.7

§1 Executive summary

  • Composite fair value $155 with high case $217.
  • Implied upside of 1.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$155
Margin of safety
+1.4%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.45Price
FV $154.6
High $216.73

SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High data gravity from multi-cloud
    High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
  • Switching costs associated with foundational
    Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
  • Bull thesis
    Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).

§2 Bear case

A prolonged macro downturn accelerates enterprise cloud optimization. Snowflake's consumption-based model experiences sharp revenue deceleration. Consequently, terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). drops to 2%, and operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. stalls at 15%.

Ways this thesis can break

Hyperscaler displacement

· High

AWS, GCP, and Azure bundle native data platforms at zero margin, stalling Snowflake's customer acquisition and forcing massive pricing concessions.

FV impact
$103.71
Trigger
12-24 months

SBC death spiral

· High

Stock-based compensation remains >30% of revenue, heavily diluting shareholders and preventing positive GAAP EPS indefinitely despite revenue scaling.

FV impact
<$100.00
Trigger
24-36 months

AI workload migration failure

· Medium

Customers migrate AI/ML workloads to specialized compute engines, relegating Snowflake to legacy storage and compressing terminal EV/Revenue multiples below 5x.

FV impact
$85.00
Trigger
36+ months
Early-warning signals to monitor
MetricCurrentTrigger threshold
Net revenue retention falling below 110%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense exceeding 35% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential decline in remaining performance obligations (RPO)MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin failing to converge toward 20%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major customer defection to Databricks or hyperscalersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financial history

Income statement — last six periods
Line itemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Period2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Revenue$2.07B$2.81B$3.63B$4.68B+31.4%
Gross profit$1.35B$1.91B$2.41B$3.15B+32.6%
Operating income$-842.3M$-1.09B$-1.46B$-1.44B—
Net income$-796.7M$-836.1M$-1.29B$-1.33B—
EPS (diluted)$-2.50$-2.55$-3.86$-3.95—
EBITDA$-752.5M$-729.3M$-1.10B$-1.08B—
R&D$788.1M$1.29B$1.78B$1.97B+35.7%
SG&A$1.40B$1.71B$2.08B$2.61B+23.0%

Quality scores

OCF / Net income
-0.92
>1 indicates high earnings quality
Accounting quality gate
Fail
Sector-adjusted gate
ROIC
-0.2%
Return on invested capital
§3

Numbers analysis

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Read the full analysis — 11 more sections.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

SNOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SNOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $155 (range $104–$217), which implies roughly 1.4% upside to the midpoint.

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