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NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Stock analysis

NDAQ fair value $53–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-20Próxima actualización: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Precio
$91.98
▼ -21.83 (-23.73%)
Valor razonable
$70
$53–$88
Calificación
Reducir
confidence 82/100
Potencial alcista
-23.7%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$59.63
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$52.0B
P/E fwd 20.8
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $88.
  • Implied downside of 23.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67

NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network effects in core exchange
    Network effects in core exchange listings
  • High switching costs in data
    High switching costs in data and analytics software
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.

§2 Caso bajista

A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Severe IPO Drought

· Medium

A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Data Pricing Regulation

· Low

Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Listing Share Erosion

· Low

Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Sustained operating margin falling below 45% post-portfolio reshaping.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to achieve immediate +8.4% Year 2 revenue rebound.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major corporate listings to rival exchanges.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Decline in recurring revenue growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos

Concepto2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$6.23B$6.06B-2.7%$7.40B+22.1%$8.26B+11.6%+7.3%
Beneficio bruto$2.34B$2.55B$2.99B$3.49B+10.5%
Beneficio operativo$1.66B$1.81B$1.95B$2.43B+10.0%
Beneficio neto$1.13B$1.06B-6.2%$1.12B+5.7%$1.79B+59.8%+12.3%
BPA (diluido)$2.35$2.26$2.08$1.93$3.09+7.1%
EBITDA$1.85B$2.00B$2.46B$3.13B+14.0%
I+D
SG&A$420.0M$417.0M$427.0M$424.0M+0.2%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
1.26×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
9.1%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
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FAQ

NDAQ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.
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