Skip to content
StockMarketAgent

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

NYSE: IBM · Real-Time Price · USD
$230
+0.14 (+0.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: IBM rated Buy

IBM is rated Buy at $229.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $282.50, implying +22.95% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.

Fair value (mid)
$283 / share
$239 – $326
Upside to FV
+22.9%
from $230
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: Accelerated adoption of watsonx and hybrid cloud solutions drives higher-margin software growth, structurally lifting IBM's margin profile and pushing revenue growth to the mid-single digits.

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Hyperscaler Compression

Hyperscaler Compression: Cloud providers aggressively price hybrid solutions, eroding IBM's software operating margin expansion.

Recommended actionConviction: high
Buy

IBM is rated Buy at $229.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $282.50, implying +22.95% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$215.9B
Revenue (ttm)68.9B
Net income (ttm)10.8B
EPS (ttm)$11.3
Shares out939.9M
P/E (trailing)20.4x
P/E (forward)17.1x
Dividend$6.76 (2.94%)
Volume5,331,970
Beta0.58
Price target$291+26.8%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

International Business Machines CorporationIBM
—
Loading chart…

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
68.9B
Net income (ttm)
10.8B
EPS (ttm)
$11.3
P/E (trailing)
20.4x
P/E (forward)
17.1x
Market cap
$215.9B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: +23.0% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$326.13
+41.9% from spot

Accelerated adoption of watsonx and hybrid cloud solutions drives higher-margin software growth, structurally lifting IBM's margin profile and pushing revenue growth to the mid-single digits.

  • Accelerated watsonx enterprise adoption.
  • Software revenue growth reaches mid-single digits.
  • Overall operating margins expand materially.
Base60%
Price target
$282.50
+23.0% from spot

Steady execution of the hybrid cloud strategy alongside stable consulting revenues, generating highly reliable $13B+ base free cash flow to easily cover the dividend.

  • Steady consulting growth stabilizes.
  • Modest AI and hybrid cloud transition.
  • Terminal growth anchors at 2.5%.
Bear20%
Price target
$239.16
+4.1% from spot

A prolonged slowdown in enterprise IT spending heavily impacts the consulting segment, while legacy infrastructure declines offset any software gains, pressuring the FCFF base.

  • Prolonged enterprise IT spending slowdown.
  • Consulting revenues decline consistently.
  • Legacy infrastructure heavily drags growth.

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $283.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
FCFF DCF40%$342+49.1%
Forward earnings25%$186-19.2%
Discounted earnings25%$331+44.2%
Ddm10%$163-29.1%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Multi stage moat fade0%$290+26.3%
Owner earnings0%$499+117.2%
Peg adjusted peer0%$123-46.5%
Residual income0%$0.00-100.0%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$283+22.9%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
4.6%$372$443$494$494$494
5.6%$283$321$372$443$494
6.6%$228$252$283$321$372
7.6%$190$207$228$252$283
8.6%$164$176$190$207$228

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet1.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment3.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
5.5/10
Mixed
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%5.0
Management11%6.9
Balance Sheet11%1.5
Profitability11%7.5
Revenue Growth11%6.0
Risk Assessment11%3.5
Competitive Moat11%6.5
Earnings Quality11%8.0
Capital Efficiency11%5.0

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core mature income holding with capital appreciation potential.
of equity sleeve
Accumulate at current levels ($229.76) for a blended return profile of 23% upside plus high dividend yield.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$230
Re-evaluate if base free cash flow run-rate falls persistently below $10B or software transition stalls entirely.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Re-evaluate if base free cash flow run-rate falls persistently below $10B or software transition stalls entirely.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE35.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC14.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All IBM indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

26
MetricValue
Cik
0000051143
Company name
International Business Machines Corporation
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
459200101
Employees
264,300
Employees Change
-6,000%
Employees Change Percent
-2.22
Enterprise value
$274B
Exchange
NYSE
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
In Index
SP500, DOW30
Industry
Information Technology Services
Isin
US4592001014
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$215.9B
Market cap category
Mega-Cap
Price
$230
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
260,730.23x
Sector
Technology
Sic
3570
Symbol
IBM
Tags
artificial-intelligence
Website
https://www.ibm.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

17
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
4.98%
EV Earnings
25.48x
EV Sales Forward
3.77x
EV/EBIT
21.13x
EV/EBITDA
16.49x
EV/FCF
21.22x
EV/Sales
3.98x
FCF yield
5.98%
Forward P/E
18.21x
P/B ratio
6.55x
P/E ratio
20.35x
P/S ratio
3.13x
PE Ratio10 Y
26x
PE Ratio3 Y
31.15x
PE Ratio5 Y
35.85x
PEG ratio
2.93x
PS Forward
2.97x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

27
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
18.82%
EBITDA Margin
24.11%
FCF margin
18.74%
Gross margin
58.36%
Gross Profit
$40.2B
Gross Profit Growth
12.21%
Gross Profit Growth Q
11.44%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y
6.96%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y
6.06%
Net Income
$10.8B
Net Income Growth
96.49%
Net Income Growth Q
15.26%
Net Income Growth Quarters
4%
Net Income Growth Years
1%
Net Income Growth3 Y
80.36%
Net Income Growth5 Y
14.9%
Pretax Margin
15.32%
Profit Margin
15.61%
Profit Per Employee
$40,689
Profitable Years
32
ROA
5.37
Roa5y
4.09
ROCE
11.17
ROE
35.77
Roe5y
25.06
ROIC
14.9
Roic5y
12.25

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

30
MetricValue
Cagr10y
9.51%
Cagr15y
6.13%
Cagr1y
-6.38%
Cagr20y
8.81%
Cagr3y
27.54%
Cagr5y
15%
Div CAGR10
2.42%
Div CAGR3
0.6%
Div CAGR5
0.61%
EPS Growth
94.15
EPS Growth Q
14.18
EPS Growth Quarters
4
EPS Growth Years
1
EPS Growth3 Y
78.11
EPS Growth5 Y
13.63
FCF Growth
2.53%
FCF Growth Q
19.66%
FCF Growth3 Y
10.4%
FCF Growth5 Y
-4.38%
OCF Growth
2.53%
OCF Growth Q
18.28%
OCF Growth10 Y
-2.98%
OCF Growth3 Y
8.48%
OCF Growth5 Y
-5.57%
Revenue Growth
9.68x
Revenue Growth Q
9.46x
Revenue Growth Quarters
11x
Revenue Growth Years
5x
Revenue Growth3 Y
4.39x
Revenue Growth5 Y
6.29x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

22
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.46
Assets
$156.2B
Cash
$11.8B
Current Assets
$31.9B
Current Liabilities
$40.1B
Debt
$69.8B
Debt EBITDA
$3.9
Debt Equity
$2.11
Debt FCF
$5.41
Equity
$33.1B
Interest Coverage
6.64
Liabilities
$123.2B
Long Term Assets
$124.3B
Long Term Liabilities
$83.1B
Net Cash
$-58B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$-26.87
Net Debt EBITDA
$3.49
Net Debt Equity
$1.76
Net Debt FCF
$4.49
Tangible Book Value
$-56.4B
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$-59.96
WACC
6.17

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

6
MetricValue
Current ratio
0.8
Inventory Turnover
19.45
Net Working Capital
$-10.5B
Quick ratio
0.64
Working Capital
$-8.2B
Working Capital Turnover
$-17.32

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

10
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
-1.09%
Dividend Growth
0.6%
Dividend Growth Years
30%
Dividend per share
$6.76
Dividend Years
56
Dividend Yield
2.94%
Ex Div Date
2026-05-08
Last Dividend
$1.69
Payout Frequency
Quarterly
Payout Ratio
59.5%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

42
MetricValue
10Y total return
148.03%
1Y total return
-6.38%
200-day SMA
271.4
3Y total return
107.48%
50-day SMA
242.3
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50under200
5Y total return
101.1%
All Time High
324.9
All Time High Change
-29.28%
All Time High Date
2025-11-12
All Time Low
9.41
All Time Low Change
2,342.7%
All Time Low Date
1974-09-13
ATR
7.01
Beta
0.58
Beta1y
1.02
Beta2y
0.76
Ch YTD
-22.43
High
230.7
High52
324.9
High52 Date
2025-11-12
High52ch
-29.28%
Low
224.8
Low52
220.7
Low52 Date
2026-02-23
Low52ch
4.1%
Ma50ch
-5.18%
Premarket Change Percent
-1.23
Premarket Price
$228
Premarket Volume
37,683
Price vs 200-day SMA
-15.35%
RSI
42.73
RSI Monthly
48.05
RSI Weekly
38.02
Sharpe ratio
-0.15x
Sortino ratio
-0.04
Total Return
1.86%
Tr YTD
-21.42
Tr15y
143.93%
Tr1m
-5.56%
Tr1w
-0.32%
Tr3m
-22.13%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

18
MetricValue
Analyst Count
15
Analyst Count Top
8
Analyst Price Target Top
$293
Analyst Ratings
Buy
Analyst Ratings Top
Buy
Earnings EPS Estimate
$1.81
Earnings EPS Estimate Growth
13.12
Earnings Revenue Estimate
15,655,814,738x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
7.67x
Operating Income
$13B
Operating Income Growth
28.27
Operating Income Growth Q
22.18
Operating Income Growth3 Y
17.35
Operating Income Growth5 Y
19.51
Operating margin
18.82
Price target
$291
Price Target Change
$26.8
Price Target Change Top
$27.63

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
937,921,424%
Float Percent
99.79%
Net Borrowing
290,000,000
Shares Insiders
0.09%
Shares Institutions
64.67%
Shares Out
939,885,280
Shares Qo Q
-0.03%
Shares Yo Y
1.09%
Short Float
2.36%
Short Ratio
4.66
Short Shares
2.36

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

76
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$11.1B
Average Volume
6,729,656.75x
Bv Per Share
35.08
CAPEX
$-1.1B
Ch10y
55.99
Ch15y
36.04
Ch1m
-6.25
Ch1w
-1.05
Ch1y
-9.32
Ch20y
175.9
Ch3m
-23.14
Ch3y
85.82
Ch5y
57.95
Ch6m
-25.01
Change
0.06%
Change From Open
0.01
Close
229.6
Days Gap
0.05
Depreciation Amortization
3,644,000,000
Dollar Volume
1,225,073,427.2
Earnings Date
2026-04-22
Earnings Time
amc
EBIT
$13B
EBITDA
$16.6B
EPS
$11.31
F Score
6
FCF
$12.9B
FCF EV Yield
4.71x
FCF Per Share
$13.74
Financing CF
-6,553,000,000
Fiscal Year End
December
Founded
1,911
Goodwill
74,709,000,000
Graham Number
94.48904
Graham Upside
-58.87
Income Tax
$-173M
Investing CF
-7,812,000,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-04-22
Last Report Date
2026-03-31
Last Split Date
1999-05-27
Last Split Type
Forward
Last10k Filing Date
2026-02-24
Lynch Fair Value
$169
Lynch Upside
-26.65
Ma150
276.9
Ma150ch
-17.03%
Ma20
237.4
Ma20ch
-3.23%
Net CF
-297,000,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-07-22
Open
229.7
Optionable
Yes
P FCF Ratio
16.72
P OCF Ratio
15.43
Payment Date
2026-06-10
Position In Range
83.84
Post Close
229.8
Postmarket Change Percent
-0.07
Postmarket Price
$230
Ppne
8,999,000,000
Pre Close
231.3
Price Date
2026-05-08
Price EBITDA
$13
Relative Volume
0.79x
Revenue
68,911,000,000x
SBC By Revenue
2.64x
Share Based Comp
1,820,000,000
Tax By Revenue
-0.25x
Tr20y
440.88%
Tr6m
-23.61%
Us State
New York
Views
220
Volume
5,331,970
Z Score
3.28

Deeper analysis on IBM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this IBM report
What is the current IBM stock rating?
International Business Machines Corporation is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full IBM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/IBM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for IBM?
The latest report frames IBM around $239 to $326. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the IBM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyIBM · Fair value $283+22.9% · Confidence 88/100
Read full analysis →