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GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $55.4, high $82.4, with mid-point at $68.5.
Stock analysis

GLW fair value $55–$82

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-09Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Prezzo
$186.94
▼ -118.39 (-63.33%)
Valore equo
$69
$55–$82
Valutazione
Vendere
confidence 88/100
Potenziale rialzo
-63.3%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$58.27
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$160.9B
P/E fwd 44.4
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $69 with high case $82.
  • Implied downside of 63.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$69
Margin of safety
-172.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$186.94Price
Low $55.37
Mid $68.55
High $82.37

GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible assets in proprietary glass
    Intangible assets in proprietary glass formulations and materials science.
  • Switching costs in display and
    Switching costs in display and specialty electronics materials.
  • Bull thesis
    Near-term internal valuation cross-checks growth is strong, but insufficient to offset the monumental valuation premium.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A synchronized global recession severely curtails consumer electronics spending and delays 5G/broadband infrastructure rollouts. High fixed costs result in significant margin compression.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Prolonged Telco Winter

· Medium

Carriers permanently reduce fiber capex due to shifting to wireless last-mile or structural funding issues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

Display Price War

· Medium

Asian competitors flood the market with heavily subsidized glass, collapsing LCD/OLED substrate pricing.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Disruptive Material Substitution

· Low

A new, cheaper composite replaces specialty glass in consumer devices, breaking Corning's monopoly.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
5+ Years
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Three consecutive quarters of declining optical fiber volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Display glass price declines exceeding high single-digits annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 30% for a full fiscal year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to sales ratio climbing above 12% without corresponding revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% on normalized FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi

Voce2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi$14.19B$12.59B-11.3%$13.12B+4.2%$15.63B+19.1%+2.4%
Utile lordo$4.51B$3.93B$4.28B$5.62B+5.7%
Reddito operativo$1.44B$890.0M$1.14B$2.28B+12.2%
Utile netto$1.32B$581.0M-56.0%$506.0M-12.9%$1.60B+216.2%+4.9%
EPS (diluito)$1.28$1.54$0.68$0.58$1.83+9.3%
EBITDA$3.54B$2.51B$2.49B$3.74B+1.3%
R&S$1.05B$1.08B$1.09B$1.11B+1.5%
SG&A$1.90B$1.84B$1.93B$2.12B+2.8%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
7 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
6.81
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.37
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
1.69×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
8.9%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

GLW balance sheet questions

  1. GLW (GLW)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.
FAQ

GLW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GLW looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $187 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $68.5 (range $55.4–$82.4), which implies roughly 63.3% downside to the midpoint.
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